Why the media announce the results of the US elections DW 10/27/2024

The United States is often described as the world's oldest democracy. So perhaps it’s not surprising that a system built on convention and tradition has its quirks.

One of them, since 1848, has been the role played by the press in “calling the race” for thousands of elections across the country. Simply put, the media reports who will ultimately be declared the winner by officials.

When the tradition began, there was no Internet, television, or radio, and the telegraph was just beginning to take hold. With no federal authority to coordinate the election, news gatherers decided to take on the task themselves, starting with the Associated Press (AP), which reported the results across the country. .

As the number of news organizations and the sophistication of technology have evolved since the 19th century, the media's role as an unofficial election monitor has continued to provide the public with the quickest estimate of identity of its next president.

But the system is not without its problems: In the 21st century, voters heading to voting booths in the westernmost parts of the United States on Election Day may already know some of the results on the East Coast, because media reports will be able to reliably confirm certain Democratic strongholds. states for Harris, and solidly Republican states for Trump.

On the other hand, some states, particularly those expected to decide the presidency this time around, could take days or even weeks as ballots are carefully counted.

How do the media get it right on election night?

The 50 states and the District of Columbia, the capital, are responsible for holding elections for the United States President, Senate, and House of Representatives within their jurisdictions.

The results of these elections are officially reported by each state, but it's the media that puts it all together for their viewers using a mix of live official results, exit polls, voter surveys and 'an in-depth knowledge of the mosaic of American electoral and historical rules. trends.

Beginning in 1990, most major U.S. media outlets formed the National Election Pool (NEP), which uses exit poll data to provide news partners with live updates on all contested races on election night.

The NEP still exists today, thanks to a long-standing agreement with market research company Edison Research to provide data to media outlets ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC and Reuters.

In 2016, the Associated Press split from this group to develop its own product called AP VoteCast, which is now used by a number of other media outlets, including Fox News, NPR, PBS, Univision, USA Today and the Wall Street Newspaper. DW reports results consistent with the Associated Press.

While the methodologies used by these two groups are different, their principles are the same: declare a result when it is clear that the leader cannot be beaten in that race.

By using every piece of data to accurately declare a winner, this media convention also provides a level of protection against candidates, regardless of their level, declaring an early victory. In turn, this helps build confidence in an electoral system that has fallen significantly, research shows.

North Carolina voters complete exit polls for Edison Research in the 2012 U.S. presidential election Image: Sara D. Davis/Getty Images Exit polls, voter surveys and decision-making

So if there is no official declaration that night, how can the media say a candidate won a state?

“Everything we report is not official, but comes from an official source,” explained Joe Lenski, co-founder and executive vice president of Edison Research.

From small town election offices to large state centers, Edison Research's more than 3,000 employees will transmit results data to the company's central team.

They also carry out surveys at the exit of the polling stations, simply asking voters which way they voted at the exit of the polls, in order to have “privileged information” on their voting intentions as soon as the polling booths open on November 5.

To account for the massive number of early voters (Lenski estimates that nearly half of all ballots will be cast by November 5), his team is conducting the same exit polls at early voting centers and uses “multi-mode surveys” of mail-in voters to accurately reflect this. segment of the electorate.

This data is then fed into a model that helps decide whether the race can be triggered when the actual results start to come in.

The Associated Press referred DW to its corporate blog about how its program declares races. According to AP Vice President David Scott, AP VoteCast takes into account live vote counting as well as voter registration, early voting, previous results, elections and results publication rules for determine the likely winner of the election.

AP VoteCast also says its surveys collect standardized demographic and voting choice data until the polls close.

Voters attend an early voting center in Virginia Image: Samuel Corum/Sipa USA/picture alliance What to expect on election night

If polls are to be believed, some states may not be declared by certain media on election night, or even for several days.

With so many close races, could a media company come out of its pool and declare a race early?

This would be very unusual, but media outlets have editorial independence to make their own decisions.

A situation similar to that of election night 2020 is more likely.

While the NEP and AP VoteCheck share principles of racial contestation, the difference between the two programs and their partners was highlighted when Fox News, an AP VoteCheck client, declared that Joe Biden had won the state of Arizona, much to the dismay of Donald Trump. The AP followed shortly after.

The race was close, however, and NEP patrons did not follow suit until November 12, nine days after polls closed.

“Our computer models are programmed to come up with a call only when they are 99.5 percent sure that we can project a winner,” Lenski said.

Given the current atmosphere, he added, the computer models were taken under advisement, but the decision was left to a team of human analysts who insist on that extra 0.5 level of confidence. % before stating their projection, that is to say before starting the race.

With this in mind, and if current polls are to be believed, voters can expect some swing states to be on edge well after November 5.

Edited by: Maren Sass

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