US elections are monumental for science, Nature readers say, here's why

Early voting is already taking place in the 2024 US presidential election. Here, voters mark their ballots at a location in Virginia. Credit: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty

The US presidential election has divided a nation, but scientists appear to be on the same page. Researchers in the United States and elsewhere are overwhelmingly supportive of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, according to about 2,000 readers who responded to a Nature survey. Additionally, a third of researchers who support it say it could affect their plans for where they live or study if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins on November 5.

The United States is the world's scientific superpower, but for how long?

About nine in ten respondents, about half of whom say they are based outside the United States, think the U.S. election is important and could have big impacts on everything from climate change to public health and politics scientific (see A heavy election). Although the survey is not statistically representative of Nature readers or the scientific community as a whole, it reveals widespread concern about the future of the United States and its global status among researchers. In particular, many respondents expressed fears over the rise of extremism and authoritarian rhetoric under former President Trump.

Part of me thinks we should throw ourselves face first into the fire and help preserve American democracy, says Erik Poppleton, an American biophysicist at the Max Planck Institute for Medical Research in Heidelberg, Germany, who responded to the 'investigation. But for now, if Trump is elected, I think I would be more comfortable staying in Europe, which is sad because I want to come back.

Poppleton is not alone. About 77% of respondents identified themselves as researchers, and 86% said the election would affect whether the United States remains an attractive place to pursue a career in science. A country that doesn't believe in facts is not a safe place to build a scientific career, one respondent wrote. Responses were sought earlier this month on the Nature website, on social media and in Nature Briefing, an e-newsletter.

Climate is important

Climate change topped the list of reasons respondents gave for why the election was important to them personally, with 34% of people choosing it. The focus on global warming likely reflects the reality that the United States is the world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases and could single-handedly bring the world off the climate cliff. Although Harris has promised to fight the climate crisis by continuing to invest in green energy, Trump says he will accelerate the development of fossil fuels.

Source: Nature Survey.

As for why elections are important for science, respondents once again put progress on climate change at the top of their list (26%), alongside concerns about science funding (24 %) and global science policy (23%).

A minority, however, believes these fears are exaggerated, arguing that science will advance regardless of politics or that neither major candidate appears ready to tackle the grand challenges facing the United States and the world. Objective, unbiased science based on facts will always have the potential to improve the human condition, wrote one respondent, who said he would prefer the cartoon character Bugs Bunny for president. The question is whether or not people want to hear the facts.

Concerns and priorities

A solid majority of respondents (86%) favor Harris, and the percentage is about the same whether people say they are based in the United States (944 respondents) or abroad (842 respondents) (see Support for Harris). Still, 6% of respondents preferred Trump and 4% said they preferred alternative candidates, including Jill Stein, who represents the American Green Party, and avowed socialist Bernie Sanders, who lost the Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Source: Nature Survey.

Concerns and priorities differed significantly between Harris and Trump supporters. Those who said they preferred Harris were more likely to cite climate change as well as safety, social justice and public health issues as their top concerns. Some also said trust in science is important. While Trump presents himself as guided by political beliefs, Harris and her party show themselves willing to update their policies based on evidence, wrote Kate Radford, a biochemistry and biophysics researcher at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. This is the heart of science.

Those who expressed support for Trump emphasized economic and security issues as their main concerns. Nature contacted one such respondent, Jacob van Rensburg, an economist at a shipping organization in Johannesburg, South Africa, who said he thought a second Trump administration would be more likely to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Funding for science, especially to combat climate change, is irrelevant when widespread war is raging, van Rensburg said.

Stay or go?

U.S.-based researchers were twice as likely as their international counterparts to say they would consider significant life changes if their preferred candidate lost (see Looming Dilemmas), a sentiment that differed by political preference. Harris supporters were 50% more likely to say they would consider moving or changing where they studied than those who preferred Trump.

Source: Nature Survey.

Respondents to the Nature survey included scientists wondering whether they should come to the United States, as well as American and immigrant scientists wondering whether they should stay in the country. In many cases, respondents spoke of the danger of a second Trump presidency. Trump has raised concerns about racism and xenophobia due to his anti-immigration rhetoric and various policies implemented during his 2017 presidency21 that made it more difficult for foreign students and scientists to study and work in the United States.

One respondent said he had already left the United States once, under President Trump, fearing the country was in danger of becoming a failed democracy. He returned because of a job opportunity, but says he's glad he never gave up his home country's citizenship. I fear I will have to try to leave again, he wrote.

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