Misinformation Decided the US Election by J. Bradford DeLong

Polling data shows that Donald Trump's supporters have been deeply misinformed about most of the issue-defining campaigns. Only if this is attributable to bad actors exploiting a broken information ecosystem, rather than a voting majority that chooses to be misinformed, can we hope for healthier politics in America.

BERKELEY Three days after Donald Trump won this year's US presidential election, my friend Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research tweeted: I hate to fire many well-paid experts, but look at the damn king. chart. The accompanying image was an Ipsos infographic titled: Misinformed views on immigration, crime and the economy were correlated with ballot choice.

The end of American democracy was all too predictable Mindy Schauer/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

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In a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in early October, likely voters who knew or assumed violent crime was not at or near a record high favored Kamala Harris by a margin of 65 percentage points, while those who were misinformed went bankrupt for Donald Trump. with a margin of 26 points. Similarly, among those who understood that inflation had fallen over the past year, Harris was up 53 points, while Trump was up 19 points among the uninformed. Among those who knew the stock market was at an all-time high, Harris was up 20; and among those who knew southern border crossings had declined, Harris was up 59.

What are we dealing with here? Are Trump voters expressing uninformed opinions about violent crime rates, the inflation rate, the stock market, and border crossings because they are Trump voters, or are they Trump voters because that they really believe these lies and are really afraid for the future of their country? If so, we have to wonder how they came to have these false beliefs. And once we understand that, we'll have to figure out what to do about an information ecosystem that has misled millions and turned our politics into a clown show.

At that point, the people who want to misinform you will show up and shout: But there have been a lot of border crossings! There has been a wave of violent crimes! (Never mind that it started under Trump). Inflation was high! (In fact, it was moderate: the maximum annual rate was 9% for the year ending June 2022, but 3% for the year ending June 2023 and 2.4% for the year ending ending September 2024.) Okay, but people get confused when asked about complex economic questions! What they really meant was that prices had gone up, not down! (As if deflation could help anyone.)

Of course, the same people will remain silent about the stock market because everyone knows it is at or near record highs. Stock indexes are how the mainstream media keeps score when it comes to reporting on the economy. News about new records is frequent and omnipresent.

These same people will also remain silent if you probe their beliefs. I admit that people may not know how quickly things have changed or know the difference between high inflation and higher prices. But everyone knows that you can always pan around with a camera to find a few examples of just about anything in the world, depending on what you're looking for. At the same time, most Americans walking around their own neighborhood or checking their retirement accounts will know that they and their real-world friends and colleagues are doing just fine. Their 401(k)s are up and no Haitians barbecue.

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This brings us back to the question of whether people are misinformed because they want to be. If Trump asks his supporters whether they will believe him or their lying eyes, will they choose? Or are we dealing with the work of bad actors who have spent considerable effort to achieve this state of affairs?

If the answer is that more than half the electorate wants to be misinformed, America and human civilization are in deep trouble. This would imply that what tens of millions of Americans really want is the green light to hate their fellow citizens. But if we are confronted with the work of cynical bad actors, it at least gives us some hope for the future. This would mean that the majority of Trump supporters are good-hearted, well-meaning people who fear the country is going in the wrong direction, even if they are doing well themselves. They voted for Trump more out of love than hate.

In this case, the task for Americans who want healthier politics and a better society is clear. Unfortunately for Democrats, this is a task that must be accomplished by Republicans. In our broken information ecosystem, nothing Democrats say will be believed by those who need to hear it. Patriotic and well-meaning Republicans must question themselves and adopt the project that Viscount Sherbrooke formulated after the extension of the right to vote in Great Britain in 1867: We, or rather you, must educate our teachers.

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