US inflation rises as American confidence improves

New Yorker Josh Kerben carefully monitored his gas purchases, trying to save money by only partially filling the tank.

But these days he's filled it to the top.

The move is an indication of the increased financial flexibility felt by millions of Americans as gasoline prices fall to a three-year low, helping to contain the rising cost of living.

US inflation – the rate at which prices rise – rose slightly to 2.7% last month, according to official figures. Despite the increase, prices are rising much more slowly than in June 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked turmoil in global oil markets and sent fuel prices skyrocketing.

Even though progress has been showing up in economic data for months, economic discontent has remained high as rising prices in other areas, such as housing, have overshadowed the broader improvement.

The issue played a key role in the US elections, helping Donald Trump win re-election to the White House last month.

But now, surveys suggest that views on the economy are finally starting to improve, thanks in large part to increased confidence among Trump supporters, including Mr. Kerben, after the former president's election victory .

“Compared to two months ago, I would say I feel more confident,” said the 36-year-old property manager. “I hope Trump does something.”

Ironically, the improvement in sentiment comes just as progress in controlling prices appears to be stalling.

The inflation rate of 2.7% for November was expected.

But that's up from 2.6% in October, the highest rate since July.

Gasoline prices – although down 8.1% from 2023 – rose 0.6% from October, while food prices jumped 0.5% over the month.

Prices of used cars, home furnishings and medical care have also increased.

The situation has raised questions about how Trump will deliver on his promises of lower prices for Americans – and what the US central bank, which wants to see an inflation rate of around 2%, should do next.

“Inflation is gradually coming back into focus in the United States,” said Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors.

“This is partly due to the lack of progress that has been made over the past three months, but also to fears that increased US government spending and the introduction of Trump's tariffs will create a more inflationary environment .”

The U.S. central bank cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years in September, citing progress in stabilizing prices.

Many analysts still expect authorities to announce another interest rate cut at their meeting this month, but they have warned that rates are likely to remain higher than expected next year unless that price increases in areas other than gasoline begin to ease more significantly.

It's a conclusion that won't surprise Americans like Grier Bowen.

The 48-year-old was diagnosed with cancer in 2017 and now relies on government disability benefits, which she says have not kept pace due to increased spending in recent years.

Although the situation was improved by lower gas prices, she said the savings were not enough to offset rising costs elsewhere.

“You can save here, but now you have to reallocate your resources elsewhere,” she said.

Bowen said she thinks Trump will try to shake things up, but she's not yet convinced he will make a difference for the better.

“That remains to be determined,” she said.

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