Narrow majorities in the U.S. House and Senate have become more common

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Republicans will begin the 119th Congress with a five-seat majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, the smallest margin of control in modern history. Their hold could become even more tenuous since three Republican seats are expected to be vacant in early 2025 until special elections are held.

The Republican majority in the Senate is also expected to be small. They will hold 53 of the 100 seats, with a potential tie-breaking vote from new Vice President JD Vance.

The Pew Research Center conducted this analysis to understand how the size of majorities in Congress has changed over time.

The analysis uses archival materials from the historic offices of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.

We began our analysis in the 88th Congress (1963-65), the first Congress with 435 Representatives and 100 Senators. The data for which party held the majority in Congress reflects the initial results of elections during the term; it does not take into account any changes during this session.

Independent lawmakers who caucus with a party count toward determining the majority, as does the Senate vice president's tie-breaking vote.

A party generally needs at least 218 seats to gain a majority in the House, but this number may be lower due to recess.

The first-day tally for the 119th House includes Republican Reps. Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz, who were both re-elected but are likely to vacate their seats in January for positions in the Trump administration. The tally also includes former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, who recently resigned from the 118th Congress. He said he has no plans to return, even though he was re-elected to the 119th Congress.

The tally for the 119th Senate includes new Vice President JD Vance of Ohio and secretary of state nominee Marco Rubio of Florida, both of whom are expected to resign to join the Trump administration. Republican governors in these states will appoint replacements to serve until the next election.

Narrow partisan divisions in the House and Senate have become the norm in recent decades, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of historical data dating back to the 88th Congress (1963-65), the first Congress with 435 representatives and 100 senators. . This analysis reflects the initial election results for each Congress and does not take into account any changes during the session.

The largest majorities in the House and Senate during this period occurred in the 1960s. Both belonged to Democrats.

Democrats held 68% of the seats in the House during the 89th Congress (1965-67). Democrats held 66% of the Senate seats in the 88th Congress (1963-65).

Since then, the size of majorities in both chambers has generally tended to decline. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the partisan divide in both chambers hovered around 50-50.

In the house

House Republicans will hold 220 seats in January, giving them a five-seat majority. This will be the smallest number of seats in modern history. The second smallest majority was achieved at the start of the 107th Congress (2001-2003), when Republicans had a seven-seat majority. This convention included two independent representatives, one who caucused with each party.

Looked at another way, House Republicans will have 50.6% of the seats in the upcoming 119th Congress, which matches their majority in the 107th Congress. (The next Congress will not have independent representatives, while there were two in the 107th.)

Razor-thin margins in the House of Representatives have been common recently: the 117th and 118th Congresses each started with 51.0% majorities, first for Democrats, then for Republicans.

In the Senate

Republicans will also have a relatively small majority in the next Senate, with 53 seats. That tally includes seats held by Vance of Ohio and fellow Republican Marco Rubio of Florida, who is expected to step down in the new year to join the Trump administration. Republican governors in both states will appoint replacements to serve until the next election.

Since the 88th Congress in 1963-1965, there have been four other Senates where the majority party held 53 seats and eight Senates with a narrower majority than that. Most of these cases occurred in the 21st century.

In some cases, the majority may depend on the party's caucus of independents or the tie-breaking vote of the vice president.

In the current 118th Congress, Democrats have the smallest Senate majority in modern history, with just 47 seats. They have the advantage thanks to four independent senators all convening with Democrats and the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Democrats in the 117th and 110th Senates also held tight majorities, with 48 and 49 seats, respectively. As in the current Congress, independent senators and a tie-breaking vice presidential vote gave the Democrats a majority.

Only one Senate has ever started with a 50-50 split between Republicans and Democrats. In the 107th Congress (2001-2003), each party held exactly half of the seats. GOP Vice President Dick Cheney's tie-breaking vote gave Republicans a majority in Congress.

Sever ties with the Senate

Recent narrow majorities in the Senate have resulted in a record number of tie-breaking votes for the vice president. Since taking office in 2021, Harris has secured 33 decisive votes, far more than any vice president in the Senate's modern era.

Harris cast 26 of her tie-breaking votes in the 117th Congress (2021-23) and seven in the 118th Congress.

The previous record for broken ties in a single Congress was 13, set by Mike Pence in the 115th Congress (2017-2019). Before Pence, the most ties ever broken in a Congress was three. Only three vice-presidents have beaten so many:

Dick Cheney (107th Congress in 2001-03, 108th Congress in 2003-05) Al Gore (103rd Congress in 1993-95) George HW Bush (98th Congress in 1983-85, 99th Congress in 1985-87)

Harris and Pence served as vice presidents during periods when Senate majorities were razor-thin. Harris presided over two of the narrowest Senate margins in history. And Republicans held just 51 seats in the Senate when Pence became vice president.

President Joe Biden, who served as Barack Obama's deputy for eight years, received no decisive votes when he was vice president.

The long-term shrinkage of congressional majorities has occurred against a backdrop of increasing partisan polarization in the United States. It also created more opportunities to overturn partisan control. For example, Democrats held the House of Representatives from the 1960s until the 1994 midterm elections, when Republicans gained a majority. By comparison, in the last 20 years alone, control of the House has changed hands four times.

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