Auroras on Christmas Day in these US states, forecast suggests

The latest Northern Lights forecast means the Northern Lights could be seen over the continent… [+] United States on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day after space weather experts predicted a G1 or G2 geomagnetic storm. (Photo by: Alan Dyer /VW PICS/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day can feature the Northern Lights in some states in the northern United States and northern Europe after a well-timed solar flare.

According to models from space weather forecasters at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center, a G1 or G2 class geomagnetic storm over Earth's atmosphere is expected to occur late on December 25.

There could also be geomagnetic disturbances that could trigger auroras on December 24.

Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: When and Where

NOAA says G1 event could mean auroras seen from Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine. If this is a G2 event, then the viewing area could be extended south, between New York and central Idaho.

Sky watchers are advised to keep an eye on NOAA's 30-minute forecast and apps like Aurora Now. Only a G5 storm like the one experienced on May 10-11 and October 10-11 can see auroras as far away as Florida, Arizona and around the world.

The line of sight of the aurora for Christmas Day on December 25 according to NOAA.

NOAA Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Solar Maximum

After the last global appearance of aurora on October 10-11, the sun remained relatively quiet, ironically since NASA and NOAA's Solar Cycle Prediction Panel 25 announced that the sun had reached its maximum solar phase, the peak of his 11-year phase. solar cycle.

Despite the quiet period, solar activity reached a 23-year high in 2024, with appearances of the Northern Lights at latitudes further south than usual.

Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Major Solar Flare

However, a large sunspot, a dark area of ​​intense magnetic complexity on the sun's surface, produced an M8.9 class solar flare at 11:12 UTC on December 23. It was almost a powerful Class X event. What happened in its wake was decisive: a coronal mass ejection. It is crucial that this cloud of charged particles ejected by the Sun and rapidly accelerating through space be directed towards Earth.

According to SpaceWeather.com, most of the CME will miss Earth to the south, but there is still a significant component directed toward Earth.

Space weather forecasters also detected two more solar flares on December 24, respectively, class M4.7 and M4.1 events, which could affect the coming nights in the event of a CME.

A class M8.9 solar flare was detected on December 23, 2024 by NOAA's GOES-16 satellite.

NOAA Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Exact Times

Exact times and intensity are difficult to predict. Geomagnetic storm G1 or G2 is tentatively expected to occur between 3:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. UTC (10:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. EST/3:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. GMT), but space weather forecasters will rely on the DSCOVR and ACE satellites to confirm when arrival on Land of CME is imminent. It could happen much sooner or later.

Only when its particles collide with the sensors of these satellites, which orbit the Earth about a million kilometers away, will NOAA forecasters be able to know the characteristics of a CME. Depending on the speed of the CME, satellites provide approximately 15 to 30 minutes of warning of a significant space weather event.

DSCOVR and ACE measure the speed and magnetic intensity of a CME, which is essential for calculating how the solar wind is about to change.

Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Causes

The solar wind is a flow of charged particles coming from the sun and interacting with the Earth's magnetic field. They are overloaded by a coronal mass ejection which propagates towards Earth within a few days.

Auroras are typically seen in polar regions at latitudes around 70 degrees north and south, but under extreme geomagnetic conditions, usually when CMEs arrive at Earth one after the other or in tandem, the auroral oval can inflate, with displays then visible up to 25 degrees north. and south of the equator.

Wisconsin's night sky glows with the Northern Lights while a geomagnetic storm brings bright pink… [+] and green colors for the majority of northern states. (Photo by Ross Harried/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

NurPhoto via Getty Images Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Colors

When charged particles strike Earth's magnetic field, they accelerate along the magnetic field lines at the north and south poles to create green and red ovals. Green auroras are caused by charged particles hitting oxygen molecules at low altitudes in Earth's atmosphere, while red auroras result from oxygen molecules at high altitudes.

The colors tell you how high the aurora is visible. According to the Canadian Space Agency, green auroras occur at about 60 to 190 miles (100 to 300 kilometers) altitude, red auroras at about 180 to 250 miles (300 to 400 kilometers) and blue, rarer, about 60 miles (100 kilometers) away.

If you see red, you're probably looking at the high-altitude edges of a raging display further north.

I wish you clear skies and wide eyes.

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