The UK and EU see 2025 as a reset year, but there is little room for compromise.

Nicholas Tucat/AFP

The UK government has been engaging in a lot of shuttle diplomacy with the EU since Labor won the UK election.

In early 2025, Prime Minister Keir Starmer was invited to an informal summit of EU leaders. This is the first time the UK has received such an invitation since the difficult times of Brexit negotiations.

The focus of the February meeting is future security and defense cooperation. The backdrop is the unstable state of the world from a European perspective.

Wars are intensifying in the Middle East and Europe. Russia supported the invasion of Ukraine by Iran, North Korea, and China.

Adding to the uncertainty plaguing this continent, Donald Trump is poised to re-enter the White House.

He threatens Western solidarity with his pledge to impose punitive tariffs on imports, a major concern for the EU and Britain, and to potentially withdraw from NATO, the transatlantic defense alliance that Europeans have relied on for security since World War II. I did it. .

A threat that reminds us of shared values.

These threats to security and trade revenues have served as a reminder of the common values ​​the EU and UK share during these unpredictable times.

The EU felt weakened by Brexit in 2016. This meant losing a large economy and the only significant military power other than France.

After Brexit, Britain is now free from the rules of EU membership but a much smaller force on the world stage.

And the Labor government has realized that Europe is key to delivering on its many priority promises to the British public.

“The economy, defence, migration… there's a European element to all of this, so the EU relationship is important to the whole government's agenda. The things that will make this government successful are linked to Europe,” says Mark Leonard. Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Labor has repeatedly promised an “ambitious reset” of EU-UK relations.

There has been a lot of shuttle diplomacy and symbolism since winning the general election last summer.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy attended the EU Foreign Ministers' Meeting, Prime Minister Rachel Reeves spoke at the EU Finance Ministers' Summit, and Prime Minister Ursula von der Leyen, EU Executive Director I sat down with the Chairman in Brussels.

In Brussels, there is support but also skepticism.

But what does this “reset” actually mean? What can we expect in 2025?

How much freedom of movement can the UK government allow in exchange for economic benefits to EU trade?

An EU-UK summit is scheduled for the spring, and several politicians and senior diplomats from EU member states and the UK spoke to me on condition of anonymity ahead of the start of bilateral negotiations.

I keep hearing that there is a “huge amount of goodwill” in the EU for the new Labor government, along with the oft-repeated “reset” enthusiasm.

But at the same time, there are clear references to Brussels skepticism that the Labor government will have to pay attention to if it wants to see real results.

“There is a desire in Europe to have closer relations with the UK,” said one EU official.

“What's less clear is what London actually cares about, and what compromises it's willing to make to get there. That's the key, and it doesn't appear the bottom has been hit in London yet.”

National defense and security are a win-win contract

Reuters

The UK already shares a close alliance in NATO with many European partners.

The defense and security deal I mentioned is the proverbial “low hanging fruit” when it comes to the EU-UK reset.

It is relatively easy to formalize what is already happening. For example, there are discussions already underway within NATO about how best to protect Europe against military and defense capabilities, cyberattacks and attacks on key facilities, as well as cooperation on Russian sanctions. Like the energy infrastructure in the North Sea.

This is considered a win-win deal.

And there is no proposal to make the defense agreement legally binding.

A Labor government doesn't have to worry about the political opposition or those who voted to leave the UK being seen as trying to “undo Brexit”. And we are sensitive to these potential accusations.

But Labor also promised on trade and the economy to “make Brexit work” and “abolish” the trade barriers it imposed. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit will cost the UK economy 4% of GDP over the long term.

Labor would like to avoid this, but it is easier said than done.

There are no ‘backdoors’ in the UK-EU trade deal

EU officials say they are confused by the UK government's declaration of an 'ambitious' reset after Brexit while maintaining restrictive red lines.

A recent research paper outlining the EU's interests noted that “the proposed economic benefits are limited” because it ruled out Britain rejoining the EU customs union or single market or accepting free movement of people.

Some in the EU suspect the British government believes it can get in return for defense trade. What they say will never happen.

“The UK is mistaken if it thinks it can use the defense deal as a backdoor to get a good deal with us on trade,” said one EU diplomat.

“For us it’s like we’re playing a strange tug-of-war: the EU has the devil on one shoulder and the angel on the other. There is more that unites us in terms of values ​​than divides us with the UK.

“The EU wants to take steps to get closer to the UK, but on the other hand we cannot do away with the technical details on which the EU is based. We cannot do a special deal with the UK, even if that limits the relationship. “

For economic relations to improve significantly, both sides will have to compromise.

Brussels has no intention of tearing up the TCA, the trade agreement that already exists between the EU and the UK. However, the EU's openness to launching negotiations in different economic sectors simultaneously was perceived.

“We can walk and chew gum at the same time,” claimed one EU diplomat.

The sectoral agreements also recognize the UK's need to comply with EU regulations in those sectors.

EU seeks return of youth mobility scheme.

Here are the key points of any compromise Labor could strike with the EU going forward: Can the result be sold back home as a victory for the British public?

The EU will push strongly for long-term fishing rights in UK waters.

They also want a Youth Mobility Scheme that would allow 18-30 year olds to work and/or study in the UK or EU for up to three years, with local fees paid by university if they choose the study option.

The UK government insists it cannot restore freedom of movement with the EU.

Migration is an important issue. However, it is worth noting that Labor has not explicitly ruled out youth schemes. They just said, “There are no plans.”

In relation to youth mobility, we assume that there will be more EU youth using mobility schemes than UK citizens due to language barriers.

getty images

The UK could also use a fishing rights deal with the EU as part of a larger deal.

However, the UK government could leverage the EU's requested openness to mobility schemes and/or fisheries agreements, such as mutual recognition of professional qualifications to facilitate cross-Channel business, or UK artists and entertainers touring the EU.

Both of these are listed in Labour's election manifesto as priorities if Labor wins power.

Labor also wants to push ahead with a veterinary deal with the EU to reduce barriers to trade in food and agricultural products. This requires the UK to comply with EU animal and plant health regulations.

Climate change and illegal migration

Ole Berg-Rusten/NTB/AFP

Both the EU and the UK are interested in better cooperation and coordination on energy and climate.

Sir Keir has also made this a priority.

The EU's linked emissions trading scheme, like many other countries, means the UK avoids the impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). These are the costs UK businesses fear.

And according to Baringa Business Consulting, removing blockages in the post-Brexit electricity market would deliver savings of 44 billion (36 billion won) to EU and UK consumers by 2040 and reduce investment costs for North Sea wind by 16%. no see.

The North Sea basin consists of the UK, EU member states Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and single market member Norway. This is one of the most promising regions for offshore wind power in the world.

On illegal immigration, the EU has said it is willing to work more closely with the UK. Britain wants to crack down more on people working in the country illegally.

France complains that the disappearance of illegal immigrants and the ease with which they can make a living are the main factors driving Britain's economic migration.

The EU has ruled out the possibility of Britain returning migrants who arrived illegally on its shores in small boats to the EU country from which they originated.

Voters move faster than the government

Whatever develops in EU-UK relations after 2025, it is likely to happen slowly because of political concerns and the habit of negotiations stalling on details.

By contrast, a recent poll by YouGov and Datapraxis for the European Council on Foreign Relations found that voters in the EU and the UK are much more eager to overcome previous political taboos to strengthen relations than their leaders in Brussels and London.

The survey found that almost half of UK respondents believe greater engagement with the EU is the best way to stimulate the UK economy (50%), strengthen security (53%) and manage immigration effectively (58%) .

When asked with whom the UK government should prioritize its relationships, 50% chose Europe, while only 17% chose the US.

A whopping 68% of UK respondents see the benefit of reintroducing freedom of movement across channels in exchange for access to the European single market.

The desire for cooperation and willingness to abandon previous boundaries was reciprocated in Europe as well.

Majorities of voters in Poland (54%) and Germany (53%), as well as in Spain (43%), Italy (42%) and France (41%) believe the EU should give the UK special access to certain areas. We entered the European single market to ensure closer security-based relations.

Geopolitical threats and uncertainty appear to be dramatically changing public opinion. Will the political classes in the UK and the EU catch up?

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