The political future of Reform in Britain could be decided within months as the party faces its biggest electoral test yet.

The British Reformation now has much to boast about.

Nigel Farage's party ranks highly in opinion polls and its membership base outstrips that of the Conservatives.

But the real test of the reforms will come in May when all 21 county council seats in England are up for grabs.

If reforms can consolidate gains in recent by-elections and turn parliament blue, it could break the deadlock between the two main parties.

The party could potentially win hundreds of council seats from the Conservatives, who are defending many of their best-performing wards in 2021.

This is what election expert John Curtice notes. He previously told GB News that Reform could benefit from the fact that the Conservatives are advocating a “very high baseline” if they field a “substantial list of candidates” for local elections next May.

Opinion polls suggest the reforms could win up to 1,000 lawmakers in May's elections.

Britain elects

Senior data journalist Ben Walker predicts as much. The founder of Britain Elects, the UK's largest opinion polling company, crunched the numbers and found that Reform dominates parliaments across the North West of England, the Midlands, Lincolnshire and the Thames Estuary.

Several wards in Lincolnshire, Staffordshire, Durham, Norfolk and Essex are planned, all due to be secured in 2025, to transition to reform.

Data scientists estimate that the reforms could win up to 1,000 more lawmakers.

Momentum is key

Success in the 2025 local elections could set the stage for UK reform in the subsequent general election.

By establishing a presence in local councils, Reform can build a stronger party infrastructure, build governance experience and potentially sway voters in the 2026 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections, where proportional representation systems may favor smaller parties like Reform. there is.

Voting north of the border certainly bodes well for the party.

Recent opinion polls have shown the party's vote share in Scotland exceeding 10%, suggesting it could win up to 12 MSPs in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections under proportional representation.

This could effectively constitute a “blocking minority” in Holyrood, Curtice tells GB News.

This is a place where a clear coalition cannot be formed either between parties that support independence, such as the SNP or the Green Party, or between integrationist parties, such as the Labor Party, the Conservative Party, or the Liberal Democratic Party.

A similar story is unfolding in Wales, where reforms are proliferating at Labour's expense. A recent poll commissioned by Reform found the party would be ranked as the third most popular party in Wales if elections were held tomorrow. This could potentially outperform the Conservatives in certain areas, which could lead to them winning several seats in the Senedd.

Latest member status

The most fundamental challenge that reform must overcome is making it palatable to the wider electorate.

Backlash to reform in Britain

The challenges that reform will face in the process are enormous.

Let's take the May election as an example. Labor's proposed reforms could hinder their progress.

The party plans to integrate small autonomous district councils into large autonomous bodies in areas where the opposition party is strengthening its position.

It is part of a plan to introduce elected mayors across all regions, giving them greater powers in areas such as transport and planning. The plan involves amalgamating smaller local councils into larger governing bodies, with a minimum population threshold of 500,000 for local authorities.

As part of this restructuring, local elections scheduled for May 2025 may be postponed in regions where reforms are gaining ground.

Labor claims the restructuring is not politically motivated but is aimed at strengthening devolution and streamlining the administrative structure.

But this could slow the momentum of reform away from a general election, a point that Reform MP Lee Anderson noted.

He wrote to X: When they can't beat you at the ballot box, they take it away.

This is not a military regime in South America.

Another, more fundamental challenge that reform must overcome is adapting to the tastes of the wider electorate.

As election expert Curtice points out, this is something Farage's former party, UKIP, never achieved.

“It remains to be seen whether the UK reforms can be embedded into the social and organizational life of the country,” he added.

The reform appears to have this in mind. An insider recently told GB News that party organs were rejecting 50 per cent of candidates ahead of May elections in a bid to clean up the party's image and professionalise it.

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