Analysis: UK electricity will be cleanest on record in 2024.

New Carbon Brief analysis shows that the UK's electricity will be the cleanest on record in 2024, with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade.

This is because the UK has been phasing out coal and now produces less than half as much electricity from burning fossil fuels as it did a decade ago, while renewable power generation has more than doubled.

Overall, fossil fuels will account for 29% of the UK's electricity in 2024, the lowest level on record, while renewables will reach a record high of 45% and nuclear will account for 13%.

As a result, each unit of electricity produced in 2024 was associated with an average of 124 grams of CO2, compared to a carbon intensity of 419 gCO2 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2014.

Other key insights from the data include:

In 2024, the country will generate 91 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity from fossil fuels (mainly gas), as coal is phased out in September, up from 203 TWh (-55%) in 2014. Renewable energy sources more than doubled from 65 TWh in 2014 to 143 TWh in 2024 (+122%). Gas-fired power plants will remain the UK's single largest source of electricity in 2024, producing around 88 TWh (28%), just ahead of wind power at 84 TWh (26%). The remaining electricity sources in 2024 were nuclear (41 TWh, 13%), biomass (40 TWh, 13%), imported (33 TWh, 11%), and solar (14 TWh, 4%). About 58% of our electricity, or 64% excluding imports, comes from clean energy sources. Both records are a far cry from the government's target of at least 95% clean electricity by 2030. Emissions associated with the UK's electricity supply have fallen by 150 million tonnes of CO2. (MtCO2) decreased by 74% to less than 40 MtCO2 in 2014. The decreasing carbon intensity of electricity means that the life cycle CO2 savings of electric vehicles (EVs) have now increased to 70% compared to petrol cars, up from 50% in 2014. Similarly, households using heat pumps instead of gas boilers now reduce their heat-related CO2 emissions by 84% per year, rather than just 45% in 2014.

Figures from the National Energy System Operator (NESO) show that wind will generate more electricity than gas in 2024. However, these figures exclude significant amounts of gas production, particularly from cogeneration units at industrial sites.

Taking into account all power stations burning gas for electricity in the UK, the fuel remained the single largest source of electricity in 2024, just ahead of wind.

However, wind power capacity will increase as new projects are completed in the coming months, and wind will likely produce more electricity than gas by 2025 due to below-average wind speeds in 2024.

Carbon Brief has published its annual analysis of UK electricity production for 2023, 2021, 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016.

the cleanest

Britain, which rose to global dominance on the strength of its coal-fired power industry, has made significant progress in organizing its power supply over the past 75 years.

It opened the world's first civilian nuclear power plant in the 1950s, produced electricity by burning oil in the 1960s, turned to gas in the 1990s, and built renewable energy in the 2000s and 2010s.

Additionally, electricity demand has been declining for nearly two decades as appliances become more efficient and the economy moves away from heavy industry.

These changes culminated in September 2024 with the closure of Britain's last coal-fired power station at Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire. This marks the end of a 142-year era of using electricity as a fuel and marks the UK's first coal-fired power station. G7 countries will completely abolish coal power generation.

The end of coal power and the rise of renewables mean that the UK's electricity will be the cleanest it has ever been in 2024, as you can see in the figure below.

Specifically, the carbon intensity of electricity fell to 124 gCO2/kWh in 2024. This is 70% lower than in 2014, which involved 419 gCO2/kWh per unit of electricity.

Carbon intensity of UK electricity generation, gCO2/kWh, 1951-2024. Source: Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), NESO and Carbon Brief analysis.

Along with falling demand, emissions associated with the UK's electricity supply have fallen by 74%, from 150 million tCO2 in 2014 to less than 40 million tCO2 in 2024. This includes the emissions associated with imported electricity and the life cycle emissions associated with imported biomass.

According to NESO, under the government's clean power target by 2030, the carbon intensity of power generation must fall by a further two-thirds by the end of the decade.

NESO provides advice on how to achieve that goal, setting out a clean power pathway to reduce carbon intensity to below 50 gCO2/kWh by 2030, depending on how it is measured.

This will be a very significant challenge. Nonetheless, the power sector has already undergone transformation over the past decade. Until 2014, it was the UK's largest source of CO2 emissions and is now the fifth largest after transport, buildings, industry and agriculture.

reduction of fossil fuels

The rapid decline in the carbon intensity of UK electricity is due to the rapid shift away from burning fossil fuels to generate electricity.

In addition to phasing out coal power, the UK has seen a significant decline in gas power generation over the past decade, while oil power generation remains negligible.

Overall, fossil fuel power generation has fallen by more than half over the past decade. It decreased from 203TWh in 2014 to 91TWh in 2024 (-55%), reaching the lowest level since 1955.

This decline is illustrated in the figure below, which shows how the decline in fossil fuel production has been largely offset by increases in renewable energy.

Total power generation from wind, biomass, solar and hydropower more than doubled from 65 TWh in 2014 to 143 TWh in 2024 (+122%). Combined with the decline in coal and gas, this means that renewables now produce significantly more electricity (57%) than fossil fuels in the UK.

UK electricity production by type, TWh, 1920-2024. Source: DESNZ, NESO and Carbon Brief analysis.

In particular, the carbon intensity of electricity did not fall in the 2000s. That's because nuclear power began to decline with the closure of the country's oldest nuclear reactor.

During this period, as renewable energy was just beginning to increase, the country turned to fossil fuels to replace lost nuclear power.

In contrast, carbon intensity has fallen sharply since 2014, despite further nuclear phase-out. The decline in nuclear power and the coal phase-out have been offset by lower renewables, imports and demand, which means gas use has also fallen, as seen in the figure below.

Change in UK electricity production by fuel (TWh, 2014-2024). Source: DESNZ, NESO and Carbon Brief analysis.

Electricity demand is expected to increase after 2030. This is because transport and heat are increasingly electrified through EVs and heat pumps (see below).

According to NESO's latest advice to achieve clean electricity by 2030, electricity demand is expected to increase by 11% by 2030 and almost double by 2050.

powered by wind power

Wind power has seen the biggest increase of all electricity sources in the UK over the past decade. Additionally, it is expected to form the backbone of the country's power system by 2030.

The rise in wind power and the decline in fossil fuels mean that the UK now gets almost as much electricity from wind as it gets from gas, as seen in the figure below.

Electricity production by source, TWh, 2012-2024. Source: DESNZ, NESO and Carbon Brief analysis.

In particular, the growth in wind power production has stagnated over the past two years. The main reason for this is that very little new wind capacity has been added.

In 2022, the UK added 3.5 GW of new wind capacity, including 3.2 GW of offshore wind. This will fall to 1.6GW in 2023, of which 1.1GW will be produced by the Seagreen offshore wind farm off the coast of Scotland, now the largest in the country and the third largest in the UK.

However, no new offshore wind farms were added in 2024 and only 0.7 GW of new onshore capacity was built, mainly the 0.4 GW Viking project in the Shetland Islands.

Another reason wind power output is stabilizing is that wind speeds have been below average for the past two years.

October and November 2024 saw particularly poor wind conditions in the UK, 7% and 22% below average respectively, while other parts of Europe were also quiet.

Nevertheless, according to NESO, on December 19, 2024, output in the wind power sector reached 22.5 GW for the first time, setting a new record.

Several large-scale offshore wind farms are under construction and are scheduled to open in 2025 or 2026.

This also includes Dogger Bank A, a 1.2GW development project in the North Sea scheduled to open next year, as well as the 0.9GW Moray West and 0.5GW Neart na Goithe wind farms off Scotland.

This project will be followed in 2026 by the 1.2 GW Dogger Bank B and 1.4 GW Sofia wind farms, also in the central North Sea.

Given these new developments and the likelihood that wind speeds will return to average levels, the UK is likely to get more electricity from wind than gas in 2025.

Biomass is the second largest renewable power source in the UK, producing 40 TWh in 2024. This is a 17% increase from 34 TWh in 2023, but approximately the same as in 2022.

Yorkshire's Drax coal-fired power station, the UK's largest biomass generator, has seen production fall in recent years due to planned shutdowns for repairs.

Drax, together with other biomass power sources including landfill gas, sewage gas and anaerobic digestion of organic waste, accounts for only about one-third of biomass generation.

UK net imports of electricity also reached a record high in 2024, with lower prices and increased interconnector capacity on the continent bringing more power into the country.

low life cycle

Clean electricity production in the UK in 2024 will make electric heat and transport much more advantageous in terms of reducing CO2 emissions.

For example, the average petrol car in the UK produces 2.7 tonnes of CO2 (tCO2) per year. In 2014, EVs emitted 830 kg of CO2, but in 2024, only 245 kg.

Based on the CO2 intensity of electricity in 2014, it would have taken an EV 16,000 miles (2.2 years) to repay the carbon debt associated with battery production compared to a gasoline car.

Based on clean electricity produced in 2024, this payback period is only 12,000 miles (1.6 years).

Put another way, over its entire lifespan, an electric-powered EV in 2014 would have had 50% lower CO2 emissions over its life cycle than a gasoline-powered car. Lifecycle savings are now 70%.

There were similar benefits for CO2 emissions from household energy use, particularly those using electric heat pumps.

In 2014, a household with average demand would have emitted 1.1tCO2 from electricity use. Now that figure has dropped to 0.3 tCO2.

For households using heat pumps, emissions from home heating will fall from 1.4 tCO2 in 2014 to 0.4 tCO2 in 2024. Instead of reducing annual CO2 emissions from heating by 45% as in 2014, this now reduces CO2 emissions by 84%.

methodology

The figures in the article come from Carbon Brief analysis of DESNZ Energy Trends Chapters 5 and 6 and data from NESO. NESO's figures are for electricity supplied to the UK grid and have been adjusted here to include Northern Ireland.

In the Carbon Briefs analysis, NESO figures are adjusted to take into account power used by on-site power plants and power generated by power plants not connected to the national high-voltage power grid.

NESO already includes estimates for onshore wind farms, but does not include industrial gas cogeneration plants and plants burning landfill gas, waste or sewage gas.

Carbon intensity figures since 2012 are taken directly from NESO. Pre-2012 estimates are based on NESO methodology, which takes into account fuel use efficiency from previous years.

Carbon intensity methodologies account for the life cycle emissions of biomass. This includes emissions for imported electricity based on the country of origin's daily electricity mix.

DESNZ historical power data, including years prior to 2012, has been adjusted to match other figures and combined with data from a separate DESNZ dataset. Data prior to 1951 includes only major power producers.

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