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US Fed officials expect slower rate cuts in 2025, December minutes show | Inflation News
Minutes from the December meeting show division over the decision to cut rates and the 0.25 percent cut was close.
At their Dec. 17-18 meeting, U.S. Federal Reserve officials expected to slow the pace of interest rate cuts this year in the face of continued high inflation and the threat of widespread tariffs and other potential policy changes.
The minutes of the meeting, released Wednesday after the usual three-week deadline, also showed a clear division among the federal government's 19 policymakers. Some expressed support for keeping the central bank's policy rate unchanged, according to the minutes. And a majority of officials said the decision to cut rates was narrowly made.
Ultimately, the Fed chose to cut its key rate by a quarter point, to around 4.3 percent. One official, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, spoke in favor of keeping rates unchanged.
There was, however, broad consensus that after cutting rates for three consecutive meetings, it was time to take a more deliberate approach to their policy rate.
Fewer rate cuts will likely mean borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, including for homes, cars and credit cards, will remain high this year.
Policymakers said the Fed was near the point where it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing, according to the minutes. In their projections released after the meeting, Fed officials said they expected just two cuts next year, down from four earlier forecasts.
Trump Tariffs
The minutes also show that almost all Fed policymakers see a greater risk than before that inflation will remain higher than expected, in part because inflation has persisted in several recent numbers and because of the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.
Fed economists considered the future course of the economy particularly uncertain at the December meeting, in part because of potential changes by the administration of new President-elect Donald Trump in trade, immigration, tax and regulatory measures, which, according to the services, are difficult to assess in terms of their impact on the economy. As a result, they included several different scenarios for the future development of the economy in their presentation to policymakers.
The staff predicted that inflation this year would be about the same as in 2024, as they expected Trump's proposed tariffs to keep inflation high.
Stock markets fell after Fed officials reduced their rate cut outlook last month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a news conference after the meeting that the decision to cut rates was close.
Powell also said recent signs of stubborn inflation have led many Fed officials to lower their expectations for rate cuts. By the Fed's preferred measure, inflation rose to 2.4 percent in November from a year ago, above the Fed's 2 percent target. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, it was 2.8 percent.
Additionally, some officials began thinking about the potential impact of Trump's proposals, such as across-the-board tariffs, on the economy and inflation next year, according to the minutes.
Economists at Goldman Sachs, for example, have estimated that Trump's tariff proposals could raise inflation by nearly half a percentage point later this year.
Earlier Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he remained supportive of rate cuts this year, in part because he expects inflation to move gradually toward the target of the Fed. He also said he did not expect the tariffs to worsen inflation and would not change his preference for lower borrowing costs.
During a question-and-answer session, Waller also said he didn't think Trump would end up imposing the universal tariffs he promised during the campaign.
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