US adds 256,000 jobs as Biden leaves Trump with strong job market

President Joe Biden will end his term with a relatively healthy job market, as the United States added a surprising 256,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.

Both figures, reported Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compare favorably to historical averages and exceed Wall Street forecasts. Analysts polled by Dow Jones expected just 155,000 job creations in December, while the unemployment rate was expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

The latest figures alone indicate that the US economy has largely achieved the “soft landing” scenario sought by Biden: relatively low unemployment and inflation.

Today, layoffs remain moderate, even though the pace of hiring has slowed significantly over the past year. New jobs created are largely concentrated in health care, public administration and retail, while other sectors have stalled. This trend continued in December, with the BLS noting insignificant job gains in manufacturing, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and construction.

Markets reacted to Friday's report by raising borrowing costs, with Wall Street traders now forecasting only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve for all of 2025. Stocks fell.

Millions of voters chose to return President-elect Donald Trump to the White House due to their frustration with the Biden-era economy, particularly as consumer prices began to rise soaring shortly after taking office in 2021. Inflation has fallen sharply but remains stable. stubbornly just above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

These price pressures have overshadowed a booming job market and strong wage gains that have increased the net purchasing power of many households. The unemployment rate fell to levels not seen in decades, with hundreds of thousands of jobs created almost every month as the economy roared back to life after the pandemic.

While on average wage gains have largely kept pace with inflation and the stock market has reached new highs, rising costs have made consumers worse off psychologically, contributing to their loss of the White House and the Senate for the Democrats.

Forecasters expect hiring to continue to accelerate, albeit slowly, as economic activity continues at a brisk pace and interest rates continue to fall in the wake of the easing of the Federal Reserve.

In fact, the BLS also reported this week that job postings have increased. Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, wrote that the data suggests the possibility of better news to come, with the potential for stronger hiring as we approach 2025.

Small business openings have particularly increased, Pollak said, which other surveys suggest is largely due to optimism about the future of the economy under Trump.

Consumer credit data released this week also shows U.S. borrowers looking to pay down debt after an aggressive uptick in purchasing behavior. That might suggest a slowdown in spending, but the same data shows that borrowing for auto purchases jumped in November, suggesting a more balanced picture of consumer health.

S&P Global reported this week that its business services purchasing managers' confidence index was at its highest level in 18 months, with the employment component increasing for the first time in five months.

There is a confluence of factors that will lead the job market to stabilize and perhaps even warm up a bit, Berger wrote.

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