Will Iran build a nuclear bomb while Trump is in power in the United States? | Israeli-Palestinian conflict News

Tehran, Iran Donald Trump's second term as US president promises Iran a rocky path that could lead to different outcomes in its relations with the West, analysts say.

U.S. leaders, along with the Israelis, have openly discussed military strikes against major Iranian nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure such as power plants and oil and petrochemical facilities.

Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remain defiant and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has held large-scale military exercises, mainly focused on defending sensitive sites.

A change, but towards where?

For more than two decades, Iran's relationship with the West has been largely defined by the evolution of the country's nuclear program and efforts to prevent it from acquiring a bomb. Tehran has always maintained that it was not seeking to acquire a weapon of mass destruction.

Recently, Iran's top political and military authorities have discussed the possibility of changing Tehran's official policy of not pursuing nuclear weapons amid growing security threats.

There appear to be two schools of thought in Tehran: one seems open to the possibility of engaging the United States, particularly on the nuclear program, and the other is clearly in favor of pursuing a weapon. , particularly given the erosion of deterrence against Israel and setbacks to its regional influence. allies, said Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the Washington-based Crisis Group.

But if the first camp wins, Washington will still have to be willing to engage in dialogue with Tehran and, given the vulnerabilities of the Islamic republics, there will probably be a certain tendency to put pressure on the stronger regime rather than accept concessions.

Iran lost one of the tenets of its forward defense strategy with the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the blows to its axis of resistance in the region.

The country is also subject to numerous sanctions that negatively affect its already struggling economy, with a plummeting national currency and high inflation, as well as an energy crisis.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, right, shakes hands with Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Mariano Grossi before a meeting in Tehran on November 14, 2024. [Atta Kenare/AFP]

Amid a dire economic backdrop, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian's government, which is expected to send its diplomats to Europe later this month for E3 talks with France, Germany and the United Kingdom, appears keen to dig deeper its relations with the West.

The overall framework under discussion appears similar to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, lifting some economic pressure on Iran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program.

But no new framework has yet taken shape and discussions so far appear to have been consultations aimed at clarifying views.

Appetite for a new deal

Things are different this time, compared to when Iran and the West negotiated for years before the nuclear deal.

In 2018, Trump returned to the JCPOA and imposed harsh sanctions on Iran. He also ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general and main architect of its regional axis, five years ago.

Unlike the first Trump administration, the Europeans will be much more aligned with the policy chosen by the United States, as they themselves have, in a way, supported the maximum pressure campaign in recent years due to growing tensions they have with Tehran, Ellie Geranmayeh,” said the deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

This year should see major developments that will better clarify the direction of Iran's nuclear program, Abas Aslani, a senior fellow at the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera.

Several clauses of the JCPOA have expired, Aslani said. There is therefore an increased willingness to negotiate a new agreement, particularly since a key sunset clause in the JCPOA, which allows the West to reinstate any lifting of UN sanctions against Iran (the snapback), will expire in October 2025.

Geranmayeh said that E3 is keeping snapback as the last tool they have to take advantage of Iran and that they are aware that once used it can trigger a very unpredictable chain of escalations of events.

Iranian nuclear site in Isfahan, Iran, April 4, 2024 [Planet Labs PBC via AP]

As such, Europe will spend its remaining time until October preventing escalation and promoting diplomacy.

However, a major question mark remains over how Europeans would react if Trump demanded an immediate lifting of sanctions on Iran by the E3 in exchange for compromise on transatlantic issues related to European security, the expert said .

Either we will be heading towards significantly higher tensions or some sort of agreement, albeit limited, on the nuclear program, depending on whether Iran and the United States can reach some sort of agreement, Aslani said .

It is also possible that Tehran and Washington will sit down for direct negotiations, something Iran has refused to do due to the United States' unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA.

If the Trump administration tries to push too hard for concessions, then it will be extremely difficult to reach an agreement, even if there is a broader agreement, he said.

Iran's nuclear program

The latest information indicates that Iran has not yet started building a bomb.

However, a year after Trump left the JCPOA, it began increasing its enrichment level and the number of centrifuges, repeating the process after Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities and international censure.

In recent months, it has installed thousands of new centrifuges in response to the adoption of another resolution of censorship presented by the West against it to the board of directors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). ).

It now enriches uranium up to 60 percent, a relatively short technical step compared to the more than 90 percent required for a bomb, with the IAEA reporting that Tehran has enough fissile material for several bombs.

Increasing nuclear activity gives Iran some leverage when it comes to talking with Trump, but it also carries considerable risks, said Rafati of the Crisis Group.

Tehran is enriching itself to near-military levels and with virtually zero escape time, blurring the line between a situation worrying enough and alarming enough for the United States and/or Israel to consider military action, a he told Al Jazeera.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visits the centrifuges in Tehran, Iran, June 11, 2023. [Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA via Reuters]

The release time of a nuclear bomb is the time required to produce enough fissile material for a bomb. If it decides to go for a bomb, Iran will have to design and assemble a weapon, integrate it with a long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, and successfully test it.

We are in a short-term holding pattern as the big elephant in the room of Trump taking office is days away and there is still no clear idea of ​​how his administration plans to shape its ties with Iran, according to senior analyst Geranmayeh.

I think in the first weeks of 2025, Iran is unlikely to significantly ramp up its nuclear activities unless President Trump aggressively doubles down on his maximum pressure campaign, Geranmayeh told Al Jazeera.

She added that Iranian nuclear activity could slow slightly if the United States prioritizes diplomatic negotiations aimed at de-escalation, meaning two very different scenarios could play out depending on Trump's position.

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