TikTok's Last Dance in the United States

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Hello and welcome to the work week.

Out with the old, in with the new. Joe Biden begins his final seven days at the White House before the inauguration ceremony in Washington which once again nominates Donald Trump as president. Biden's legacy, at least in terms of industrial policy, appears doomed, but he will undoubtedly attempt to end his term more gracefully than his predecessor/successor.

There is significant corporate history tied to this transfer of power. TikTok is expected to be shut down in the United States next Sunday under a bill passed by Congress last April, forcing ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese parent company, to sell its stake in the app or face a ban for security reasons.

TikTok, which has more than 170 million users in the United States, failed to get the law overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court last week. But the video app could be saved by Trump, who made a damascene conversion to social media platforms on his way to the White House, becoming the ringleader-in-chief of a company he once loathed because of its ties to China.

For those looking to get a head start in the next chapter of American politics, the FT will host a special webinar for subscribers on January 23. Our panel will provide critical insight into what to expect from Trump's second term. Register for free here.

Moving on to another change at the top: New French Prime Minister François Bayrou is expected to outline his policy priorities on Tuesday in his first speech as prime minister to the French Parliament. If you want to know more about what motivates this quirky centrist politician, read this.

We are now well into a new results season and results will arrive en masse this week. The main players are the Wall Street banks, which publish their fourth quarter figures.

Among them, we can cite Citigroup, but not necessarily for good reasons. The New York-based bank, which has struggled to return to form since its near collapse at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, is expected to turn a profit after a $1.8 billion loss in the same quarter a year ago earlier. But analysts say the bank's main target, return on tangible equity, is expected to be lower than what is needed to meet targets previously set by chief executive Jane Fraser.

Finally, there will be much to discuss about the global economic outlook. Inflation data will flow freely over the next seven days, from India, the United States and various European countries. Furthermore, the European Central Bank publishes the latest minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. These developments are likely to highlight the challenges major economies face in bringing the cost of living scourge under control, and could indicate their next actions, as noted by the FT editorial board.

There is a rush of other economic news. China will release an update on fourth-quarter GDP, along with data on trade, retail sales, industrial production and credit aggregates. In the United States, we will also have retail sales and industrial production figures, as well as housing figures from the National Association of Home Builders. The UK will provide markets with monthly data on GDP, retail sales, industrial production and RICS house prices. There will also be numerous speeches from central bankers. More details and times below.

One more thing…

Los Angeles has been the center of media attention for tragic reasons. So it will be a relief to some in town that news of the Oscar nominations will be announced (albeit a few days later than originally expected) next Sunday. Will Conclave, Emilia Prez, Anora or The Brutalist win?

Personally, I don't care and neither option particularly appeals to me, but I'm grateful to still have a vibrant local independent cinema in my corner of central London. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the winner is the Genesis. A good place to watch a movie doesn't solve life's disasters, but it can provide a much-needed distraction.

What are your priorities for the coming week? Email me at [email protected] or, if you're reading this from your inbox, click Reply.

Key economic and corporate reports

Here's a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

China: December trade figures

EU: third quarter balance of payments data

India: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate data for December

United Kingdom: annual Make UK/PwC survey of senior manufacturing executives

Results: HCL Technologies Q3, PageGroup Q4 Commercial Update

Tuesday

Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden speaks at the Financial Stability Legal Forum in Zurich, Switzerland

India: Monthly Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation Rate Data

United States: December Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation rate data

Results: Card Factory Trading Update, Games Workshop HY, Grafton Group Trading Update, Gym Group FY Pre-Closing Trading Update, JD Sports Cutting Edge Trading Statement, MJ Gleeson Trading Update , Ocado Retail Q4 Trading Statement , OMV Q4 Trading Update , Persimmon Trading Update , Robert Walters Q4 Trading Update

Wednesday

Alan Taylor, external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, delivers a speech at the University of Leeds, UK

Publication of monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA on the oil market

EU: industrial production figures for November

France: December CPI inflation rate data

Germany: first estimate of annual GDP

UK: December CPI and PPI inflation rate data. Also, January statistics on private rents and house prices

United States: December CPI inflation rate and real earnings data. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book was released

Ashley Buchanan becomes CEO of Kohls, succeeding Tom Kingsbury

Results: Ashmore Q2, Bank of New York Mellon Q4, BlackRock Q4, Citigroup Q4, Currys Peak Trading Update, Fuller, Smith & Turner Trading Update, Goldman Sachs Q4, Hays Trading Update, International Distribution Services Q3 Trading Update, JPMorgan Chase Q4, Liontrust Asset Management 9M/Q3 Trading Update, Victorian Plumbing FY, Vistry Group Trading Update, Wells Fargo Q4

THURSDAY

EU: the European Central Bank publishes the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting

Germany: CPI and Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) inflation rate data for December

Japan: Revised retail sales figures for November

United Kingdom: GDP estimate for November. Also, RICS residential real estate market study

United States: January NAHB housing market index

Results: Bank of America Q4, Deliveroo Q4 trading update, Dunelm Q2 trading update, Infosys Q3, M&T Bank Q4, Morgan Stanley Q4, PNC Financial Services Q4, Rathbones trading update, Rio Tinto Q4 operations review (AM in Australia), Safestore FY , Taylor Wimpey Business Update, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Q4, Trustpilot Business Update, UnitedHealth Q4, US Bancorp Q4, Whitbread Q3 commercial update

Friday

China: revised estimate of fourth quarter GDP. Also, December retail sales, house price index and industrial production figures.

EU: December HICP inflation rate data

UK: December retail sales figures

United States: December industrial production, building permits and housing starts data

Results: Citizens Financial Group T4, DFS Furniture interim trading report, Schlumberger T4, State Street T4

World events

Finally, here's a look at other events and milestones this week.

Monday

India: Hindu holy men carrying swords and tridents will lead millions of devotees into the icy waters of the Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati rivers during the first Shahi Snan (royal bath) of the Kumbh Mela (Pitcher Festival) 2025 in the city of Prayagraj, in the north of the country. . The event, held every 12 years, is marked by ritual baths, prayers and religious ceremonies believed to cleanse sins and aid spiritual liberation.

Japan: Coming of Age Day (Adults' Day), a national holiday aimed at encouraging those who have recently entered adulthood to become independent members of society. Municipal governments will hold special coming-of-age ceremonies for 18-year-olds today.

Tuesday

Orthodox Christian New Year

France: François Bayrou, the country's new Prime Minister, delivers his first political speech to the National Assembly in Paris upon his return from vacation

United Kingdom: The National Archives releases previously confidential files from the British secret service, MI5, covering events and individuals between 1929 and 1975

Vatican City: Hope, memoir of the head of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis, and first autobiography published by a pontiff, goes on sale

Wednesday

Belgium: NATO Military Committee Chiefs of Defense Session begins in Brussels. The agenda includes a discussion of the Euro-Atlantic area and the war in Ukraine.

United States: The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch in Florida, carrying the Firefly Aerospace Blue Ghost lunar lander to the moon, as part of NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative

ThursdayFridaySaturdaySunday

Orthodox Christian Epiphany

United States: President-elect Donald Trump holds a rally in Washington before his inauguration on Monday. Additionally, nominations for the 97th Academy Awards will be announced in Los Angeles and the ban on TikTok in the United States is expected to go into effect.

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