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Reduced trade between the UK and the EU will spur a rewrite of rules after Brexit, says IPPR | trade policy

Reduced trade between the UK and the EU will spur a rewrite of rules after Brexit, says IPPR | trade policy

 


The slump in trade with the EU will force ministers to step up negotiations on a fundamental rewrite of post-Brexit rules to bring the UK and Brussels more closely aligned, a centre-left think tank said.

President Donald Trump's arrival at the White House next week should encourage the government to take the lead in negotiating a trade deal with the US to support UK export growth, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said.

In a report revealing the full extent of the UK's decline in trading status inherited by the Labor government, IPPR said ministers should consider a wide range of measures to deliver for industries including energy, defence, food, communications, healthcare and pharmaceuticals. Increases your chances of selling your products and services abroad.

The report said Britain's trade policy had been confused and rudderless since the 2016 Brexit vote, adding that efforts to strike mini-deals with non-EU countries were progressing well after leaving the EU's single market and customs union in 2021. .

The report said the UK's exports of goods to the EU are estimated to fall by 27% between 2021 and 2023 compared to remaining in the European Free Trade Area, while imports of EU goods into the UK are estimated to fall by 32%.

Meanwhile, other G7 countries, including the United States, Japan, France, and Italy, enjoyed strong trade. The UK saw its total trade in goods fall by 10% between 2019 and the end of 2023. Figures from 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2023 show that other G7 countries saw an average increase of 5%.

Trump's inauguration next week could usher in a series of restrictive policies from Washington that will mark a turning point in global trade policy. The incoming U.S. president has said he wants to increase U.S. consumers' costs on imports he claims would benefit from subsidies. China is his main target, but companies based in the EU and UK could also be hit with tariffs levied by US Customs that would be passed on to consumers.

Among the policy changes, IPPR is recommending a reduction in UK tariffs on imports that support achieving net zero targets, while also seeking tariff reductions through agreements with key trading partners, including India and the United States. Report author Marley Morris said even a small deal with the US could be beneficial and allow Britain to avoid Trump's new tariff regime.

To ease the fallout from Brexit, ministers should negotiate a veterinary agreement with the EU to reduce inspections of food crossing the Channel. According to recent research, this could increase UK agri-food exports to the EU by up to 22.5%, the report said.

Ministers should also seek a Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) with the EU to show that products made in the UK comply with standards set in Brussels. It should also attempt to link the UK and EU systems for emissions trading to avoid the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism, which imposes levies on importers to reflect the carbon intensity of specific goods.

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Morris, deputy director of IPPR, said: With Donald Trump's inauguration just days away and the government planning a reset with the EU, the time is ripe to set out a new trade strategy for the UK.

The challenges are clear: declining commodity exports, damaged barriers to the EU and a turbulent global economic environment. But the new strategy will help develop new export support programs, rebuild the UK-EU trading relationship and modernize our approach to trade agreements.

Sources

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2/ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/16/uk-trade-eu-post-brexit-rules-ippr-report

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