How the polar vortex is fueling an intense winter in the United States

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Here's how the polar vortex and climate change are influencing extremely cold winters in the United States.

Intense snowy winter weather in the United States has been fueled by polar vortex activity, which is sliding to engulf large parts of the country.

The early January winter storm prompted seven states to declare a state of emergency, with flights suspended, businesses closed and one area of ​​New York recording 6.25 feet (1.9 m) of snowfall in just 24 hours. Another wave of arctic air kept temperatures below average through mid-January, and parts of the Midwest up to the Appalachians and the Atlantic coast are expecting more winter storms.

This cold snap is due to the activity of the polar vortex.

What is the polar vortex?

The polar vortex, or Arctic polar vortex, is a ring of strong westerly winds that form each winter between 16 and 48 km above the North Pole, enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air. The stronger the winds, the more indoor air is isolated from warmer areas. When the vortex is stable, the polar jet stream moves north, helping to maintain the coldest air in the Arctic.

However, when this stable scenario collapses, it could mean an intense cold spell in the mid-latitudes, where the United States is located. As the vortex weakens, the wind pattern changes from a circular ring to a wavy band that loops further south. This releases the cold normally held at the pole further south.

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The polar vortex brought snow to the mid-Atlantic states in January 2025 (Credit: Noaa)

“[The early January] The cold outbreak and the outbreak on January 16 are essentially broken pieces of the polar vortex,” Brett Anderson, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, told the BBC.[It’s] like a large piece of ice that breaks off a glacier and floats south with the current, the current being the jet stream.

Is climate change affecting the polar vortex?

It's unclear whether climate change will affect the polar vortex, says Amy Butler, an atmospheric scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and an expert on the polar vortex. There are several reasons why it is so difficult to predict whether the polar vortices will strengthen or weaken in the coming years.

“A lot of things can change the strength of the polar vortex,” says Butler. Sea ice is one of them. Some models suggest that melting sea ice could have a weakening effect on the vortex. However, warming of the upper layers of the atmosphere can potentially strengthen the vortex. Regional changes in sea surface temperatures could also influence the vortex.

“For these reasons, the models show no agreement on what will happen to the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex in the future,” says Butler.

How are winter storms evolving in the United States?

In many areas of the United States, snowfall totals have declined since official records began in the 1930s. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest have seen a decrease, although the Great Lakes have received more snow in the past, albeit in a modest amount.

One reason for this overall decline in snowfall is that more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, which is due to warmer air temperatures due to climate change. Between 1949 and 2024, more than 80% of weather stations located in the 48 contiguous states measured a decrease in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow. Additionally, the amount of land covered by snow has decreased by an average of 2,083 square miles (5,395 km2) per year since 1972.

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With climate change, increasingly unpredictable extreme weather conditions can put pressure on communities and emergency services (Getty Images)

Other changes could also make it more difficult to prepare for cold snaps linked to climate change. “It is possible that the type of precipitation could change, leading to more snow in some areas and more icy or sleet in other areas, which could have greater impacts, for example on transport, than the snow,” Butler said. “However, other regions could see significantly less snow, which could put a strain on regions that rely on snowpack for their water.” For the western United States, snowmelt provides 75% of the water supply.

“I think as warming continues, particularly in the oceans, there will be more energy and moisture available for larger winter storms,” adds Anderson, “which can take the form of extreme amounts of rain or snow However, we are seeing a trend toward increased rain or a mix of events compared to just snow.

Anderson stresses that he doesn't have an answer as to whether this cold outbreak has anything to do with climate change. However, we can expect climate change to continue to cause “short-term variability” in weather, he says.

Anderson agrees that in the long run, the bigger picture is obvious. “There will still be cold, snowy winters in many areas, but over a long period of time, several decades or more, these cold spells will likely become even less frequent,” he says. “Climatologists focus on long-term trends (30 years or more) and they all clearly show an undeniable warming trend, strongly induced by human activities.”

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