Will RedNote be banned in the US?

I'm not the first to notice the irony of TikTok users flooding RedNote this week. The TikTok divestment or ban rule was meant to keep Americans away from a foreign social network subject to influence or data collection by the Chinese government. Instead, it pushed them to another foreign social network that poses the exact same hypothetical risks and could be subject to the exact same type of ban.

TikTok faces a ban under the Protecting Americans from Apps Controlled by Foreign Adversaries Act, which passed with overwhelming bipartisan support and was signed last year by President Joe Biden (who reportedly currently experiencing buyer's remorse). Although it mentions TikTok and its parent company, ByteDance, by name, it could apply to any company that meets the following criteria:

It operates a website or app with over 1 million monthly users and allows these users to create accounts to create and share content. This is not a service that primarily allows users to post product reviews, business reviews, or travel information and reviews. It is controlled by a foreign adversary, a definition that covers North Korea, China, Russia and Iran. Control may mean that the company is headquartered there, a resident of that country owns at least 20% of the company, or is otherwise subject to the direction or control of a person who lives there.

RedNote reportedly had more than 300 million monthly active users in 2023, plus an additional 3 million U.S. users who recently moved. Its headquarters is in Shanghai, China. It offers a service very similar to TikTok.

If a company meets the legal criteria, responsibility falls to the president, who can decide whether or not to initiate divestment or ban proceedings. This requires a series of steps:

The president must publicly propose determining that the company's app presents a significant threat to U.S. national security. The president must issue a public report to Congress, setting out the specific national security issue involved and containing a classified annex, as well as a description of the assets. the parent company should disengage. (Congress does not need to approve it, it just needs to receive it.) The president makes a formal decision at least 30 days after notifying Congress, and the company has 270 days to make a divestiture. which meets the requirements of the president. During the first 90 days, the app's parent company can challenge the law in the Washington Circuit Court of Appeals, as TikTok has done. If it fails to get a court to stop it, the company will have to conduct a qualified divestment or face a ban. in the United States. The 270-day clock continues to tick unless a court suspends it, and the president can only extend the deadline up to another 90 days. The app can avoid a ban if it is removed from the foreign adversary's control. The president must determine, through an interagency process, that the sale would result in the application no longer being controlled by a foreign adversary and would preclude any sort of future operational relationship, such as a sharing agreement. of data. When this happens, the law requires app store operators and internet hosting services to stop supporting the app, leading to its effective shutdown in the United States.

The law specifically mentions TikTok as a national security threat, so that platform is basically cooked. The divestment or ban deadline was set once the law was signed, bypassing much of the above process. The law states that any subsidiary of ByteDance is also covered by the law. So while the company and the U.S. government have yet to comment on apps like its social network Lemon8, they will likely face scrutiny as well. But the president has much greater leeway to decide the fate of other applications.

So where does RedNote stand?

RedNote, according to publicly available information, could be forced to divest or face a ban under the Protecting Americans from Apps Controlled by Foreign Adversaries Act. A U.S. official confirmed this, saying this appears to be the type of enforcement the law would apply to.

But from a pragmatic point of view, this is where we leave the realm of politics and enter the world of politics. The question isn't really how RedNote works; it's about whether RedNote drives President-elect Donald Trump or the Silicon Valley oligarchy crazy.

TikTok certainly poses potential security risks, but the push to ban it was much more than that. Meta was behind a public campaign calling for increased scrutiny of TikTok, one of its main competitors, and its ties to China. Members of Congress have complained that TikTok is showing too much pro-Palestinian content; There is no known evidence that China is behind this alleged imbalance, so portraying it as a threat to national security seems quite suspicious. Now, conversely, Trump is looking for ways to save TikTok because he thinks it helped his election campaign.

Based on all of this, let's extrapolate a path for RedNote. Right now, its U.S. user base appears relatively tiny; It's unclear how many U.S. users it had before last week, but Reuters reports it gained about 3 million U.S. users in one day this week, compared to TikTok's roughly 170 million U.S. monthly users last week. last year. The risks that Congress saw in TikTok's massive data collection and covert propaganda appear to affect a much smaller number of people. The risks that could actually decide its fate are a little more complicated.

Will RedNote maintain momentum that threatens the egos or businesses of MAGA-endorsed billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk? Will this produce political activism that antagonizes Trump (or a future president)? Will growing U.S. hostility toward the Chinese government manifest itself in a broad crackdown on Chinese apps? All of these things, although difficult to predict, do not bode well.

For now, have fun learning Mandarin.

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