What does Trump's election as president mean for the UK?

On Monday, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States.

The former Apprentice star won a landslide victory last November, ousting incumbent President Joe Biden.

All eyes have been on Trump since the start of his incendiary first term, which ended with violent Capitol riots.

Trump has been very vocal about his top priorities as he returns to the Oval Office. This includes imposing massive taxes to discourage international trade, ending the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible, and dramatically curbing immigration.

His decisions will not only shape America, but also bring us closer to home.

Here's how a Trump presidency could reshape British politics, and what it means for the UK as a whole.

transaction

Trump's 'America First' policy means his trade focus puts America first, imposing heavy taxes on foreign trading partners to encourage trade closer to home.

So far, Starmer has played down the threat of Trump's sweeping plans for US tariffs that could significantly hamper Britain's trade prospects. If President Trump goes ahead, it would mean he would impose tariffs of up to 20% on all global imports destined for the United States.

Such a hardline stance could alienate America's closest neighbors, but Starmer seems keen to prevent that from happening to the UK, declaring that he wants to get around the negotiating table and get a trade deal done in the first few weeks after Trump returns. .

But what could be problematic is the power imbalance in the special relationship the UK holds so dear.

“In the UK we think of the US and the UK as having a special relationship, but for the US we have one of many special relationships,” Dr Dafydd Townley, professor of international security at the University of Portsmouth, told Yahoo. tidings.

Starmer wants to talk to Trump about a deal as soon as possible. (NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Professor Katie M Pruszynski, who specializes in Trump and American politics at the University of Sheffield, told Yahoo News, “About a fifth of British exports are exported to the United States.” “It has become the largest single country,” he said.

Pruszynski explained that while trade with the EU bloc is much larger, the impact of Brexit has complicated this and left the country more dependent on the US than it was during Trump's first term.

“There’s so much uncertainty about what’s going to happen, so there’s going to be a lot of anxiety, especially for some of the smaller businesses that trade and export to the United States,” she added.

Pruszynski said ultimately American citizens will be hit first.

nato

President Trump's stance on Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will be closely watched by Russia, which has long criticized the expansion of the military alliance.

Trump has been a vocal critic of NATO during his first term as president, complaining that U.S. tax dollars fund European security and that NATO members are not spending enough.

This includes President Trump calling on NATO members to commit to 5% of GDP in military spending, double the current target.

Townley points out that these numbers mean the U.S. needs to increase spending.

He said, “Last year, the United States spent only 3.4% of its defense spending on GDP.”

“Most countries would agree that we need to spend more on defense.

“But in countries like the UK, where we are already struggling with budget constraints, where will we find the spending?” He added:

Starmer visits Ukraine just before Trump's inauguration (AFP via Getty Images)

Townley said that by setting such a challenging goal, Trump may be “constructing a failure” that could “justify” America's withdrawal from the alliance.

If the US were to leave, it could have a big impact on the UK's position, but perhaps not in the way we expect.

“So does that mean the UK will become one of the top three nuclear powers in NATO, becoming much more important and having a greater say and influence?” Townley said.

Furthermore, if the United States leaves NATO, Ukraine's chances of winning the war could be seriously hampered.

The outcome is still unclear, but Townley said the prospect of a U.S. withdrawal was “very concerning.”

Not only would this significantly reduce the amount of military assistance the United States provides to Ukraine, which could embolden Russia to escalate its aggression, but it could also place a greater burden on European allies to step in to support their neighbor.

climate change

Unveiling a series of ambitious climate packages has been a point of pride for incumbent President Biden.

Part of this climate and energy legacy was the landmark $391 billion ($301 billion) inflation reduction law. Some of them have invested in clean domestic energy production, establishing things like battery factories for electric car manufacturers in industrial cities.

But Trump warned that such measures would be implemented first, as stock prices in wind and solar companies plummeted following his election victory.

But while Trump may want revenge after losing an election to Biden, Townley believes rolling back the program would be a “political minefield.”

“Biden’s green energy programs, especially for businesses in Republican-controlled states, have proven to be very popular,” Townley said.

“I think it would be very foolish to completely withdraw support for the green policies that Biden has started.”

Joe Biden's energy policies have proven very popular across the political divide (Getty Images)

Like the US, Townley said the UK was also breaking its promises to reduce carbon emissions.

“This administration, like previous administrations, continues to backtrack on its commitment to zero carbon,” he said, adding, “So I think we need to look at the global situation, not just in the United States.”

immigrant

One of President Trump's major immigration promises is to deport undocumented immigrants from the United States en masse.

This highly controversial position follows a concerted effort by President Trump to strengthen the U.S.-Mexico border during his first term.

“I think the advent of the Trump era has emboldened the conversation about immigration in the UK,” Pruszynski said. “There has been a very vicious dehumanization of immigrants in the United States.

“There has been a more moderate discourse in the UK, but we are talking about immigration in a new, much darker way.”

“If this had been a Kemi Badenoch government, or a Nigel Farage government rather than a Keir Starmer government, we would have seen some echoes of US immigration policy,” Townley said.

“But Starmer believes we need to balance strong borders with freedom of movement.

“Particularly in the United States, border patrol costs will increase, but we don't have the infrastructure to carry out mass deportations, and I think the same goes for the UK.”

Trump has had the advantage of a selection of sympathetic advisers and politicians, including one of his most notorious backers, Elon Musk, the head of the newly created Office of Government Effectiveness, but his stance on immigration ” There are some differences between the two.

Elon Musk and Trump were spotted at the Army-Navy football game at Northwest Stadium (Getty Images)

“Musk has been very supportive of H1B visas for people who work at electronics companies, but MAGA-oriented people say no, we want to reduce not just illegal immigration, but immigration to this country per se,” Townley said.

Musk's vocal involvement in British political affairs has been in the spotlight in recent weeks, including stoking the grooming gang scandal, a highly emotional issue closely tied to immigration conversations.

Additionally, billionaire Musk caused a stir by offering to donate money to Nigel Farage's political party, Reform UK.

Pruszynski described the pledge as “relevant.”

“To ensure neither corporate money nor people’s vast personal wealth can outgrow the size of the UK, Keir Starmer must urgently review the rules governing donations to political parties and political candidates in the UK,” she added. .

chagos islands

Trump's influence on Britain's Chagos Islands agreement also made headlines last week.

The islands are of international interest because Britain and the United States share military bases in the region, and the government has confirmed that Trump will be consulted on a British deal to hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

Townley said Starmer's decision to involve Trump “indicates” Britain is a “junior partner” in the special relationship between the United States and the UK.

“We will consider this before making a final decision,” Townley said. “I think it would be a smart move for Starmer to delay this and not start his relationship with Trump on a bad footing.

“The interesting thing is that this deal to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius was effectively completed and fell through,” Pruszynski said.

“This is part and parcel of the picture of Trump exercising his influence on the international stage.”

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