There is no plan: groups of migrants at the US-Mexico border await mass expulsions | American immigration

It's cold and quiet at Casa del Migrante, a shelter in Ciudad Jurez, on the US-Mexico border. A group of men play dominoes, another shoots hoops alone, and a young couple watches their children play with superhero toys.

Some people come here and don't want to come out, said Ivonne Lpez, a social worker. They are afraid.

With Donald Trump's return to power, American immigration rules will change radically. As border towns like Jurez prepare for possible mass expulsions, criminal groups are waiting to kidnap and extort migrants and also offer them a way back across the border.

Besides deportations, Trump wants to cancel CBP One, the app that migrants in Mexico use to arrange asylum appointments in the United States, and reinstate the so-called Remain in Mexico policy, under which asylum seekers Asylum seekers were forced to wait in dangerous border towns while their applications were processed.

The new administration would also like to revive Title 42, the pandemic-era public health policy that has expelled people nearly three million times without letting them seek asylum.

Experts say each of these measures would increase the number of migrants in Mexico's border cities. Taken together, their effects could be overwhelming.

Yet on the eve of Trump's inauguration, Jurez is strangely calm.

We currently do not have a strategy for the mass expulsion of migrants from the United States because there is no information, said Enrique Serrano, general coordinator of COESPO, the national migration agency, which, according to him, is primarily the responsibility of the federal government. government.

The range of possibilities is very wide: they could deport 1,000, 100,000 or millions, he added. We cannot strategize for all levels of expectations. We will wait.

There is a certain weakness in the system: around half of the 2,700 beds in Jurez shelters are unoccupied. This has been true in all Mexican border cities since CBP One was made available elsewhere in Mexico. Meanwhile, authorities have worked to contain migrants in the south.

Serrano said the federal government would establish three encampments in Jurez if necessary, where deportees would be processed before Mexicans were offered free bus transportation to anywhere in the country. Foreigners, on the other hand, will not be able to move freely.

Tijuana, another border city, recently declared a state of emergency over possible mass expulsions. Serrano said now is not the time for Jurez to do the same: there is no panic, no urgency.

Civil society organizations, which provide more than half of the accommodation capacity in Jurez, are less optimistic about the future.

Trump and his team now know which policies worked and how to make them tougher, said Blanca Navarrete, director of Derechos Humanos Integrales en Accin.

La Casa del Migrante, which is currently at a third of its capacity of 560 people, is setting up additional spaces and stocking up on basic necessities. At one point during Trump's last term, they made room for 1,138 migrants.

What the deportees will want to do is another unknown. They left their homes for a reason, whether it was poverty or violence, and thinking they will simply return is delusional, Navarrete said.

Serrano said COESPO expected the majority would want to return to the United States.

And [criminal groups] they will try to conquer them as a market for their migration services, he added.

In early January, authorities discovered a 40-meter tunnel connecting Jurez to El Paso, Texas. Social media ads offered to spiritual migrants under the border wall in 20 minutes for $5,000. The entrance was in a square near a colossal sculpture in the shape of a red X.

The newly discovered tunnel near the US-Mexico border in Ciudad Jurez on January 18. Photograph: Carlos Sánchez/Reuters

The fact that this tunnel is in plain sight makes one wonder where there might be other tunnels, said Ciela Vila, also of Derechos Humanos Integrales en Accin.

Mexico's organized crime groups have increasingly diversified into the migrant economy. For some, migrants' income now rivals that of drugs.

These groups could tax coyotes or directly smuggle people themselves. But they extort, kidnap and sometimes traffic people into sex work or forced labor in the agricultural sector.

The Mexican army investigates an area near the entrance to a clandestine tunnel in Ciudad Jurez, Mexico, on January 14. Photograph: Luis Torres/EPA

This has made migrants' journeys more violent and terrifying.

Criminal groups often kidnap people at bus stations and airports. The authorities found shelters in which more than a hundred migrants were crowded. Torture, sexual assault and murder have been documented.

Most of the people arriving at Casa del Migrante were kidnapped at some point during their journey through Mexico, Lpez said.

Some traffickers even tried to infiltrate their shelter. In the past, people came in saying they were families. But when we do the interviews at the reception, we realize that the man is not actually the father, Lpez said.

Lpez said it was a strategy of traffickers to keep their clients or victims under their control. But it also gives them access to other people in the shelter.

We try to protect migrants as much as possible, Lpez said. But maybe others got in here and we didn't even realize it.

Organized crime groups will be closely monitoring Trump's policies. They are aware of the changes in the United States and they will use them to their advantage, as they have in the past, said Parker Asmann of Insight Crime.

During Trump's first term, Remain in Mexico and Title 42 kept vulnerable people stranded in border cities and proved a boon for organized crime.

Today, these groups have developed an appetite for this sector and may soon receive an even larger population.

Trump's migration policies could end up lining the pockets of organized crime groups, strengthening the cartels he has promised to wage war against.

We have repeatedly asked the authorities what they are doing about the kidnappings. [of migrants]Navarrete said. The National Guard told us they were making a plan, but we never heard anything more about it.

In other words, there is no plan.

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