We're going to drill, baby, drill: Why Trump wants the US to withdraw from the Paris climate accord | Climate crisis news

In his first 24 hours in office, US President Donald Trump repealed US participation in the Paris Agreement for the second time.

The environmental pact binds 196 countries to a goal of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times.

The only countries outside are Iran, Libya and Yemen.

America will be a manufacturing nation again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have, the greatest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth, and we are going to use it, a Trump said in his inauguration speech at the US Capitol on Monday. We're going to drill, baby, drill.

Trump also withdrew from the climate agreement during his first term, when he campaigned on the theory that climate change was a hoax spread by China to hamper U.S. economic growth. There were no such claims during his last campaign.

Unlike Trump's withdrawal in 2017, which took four years to become effective and which was reversed by the new administration of Joe Biden, this withdrawal will take effect in a year.

Here's what you need to know:

Why is Trump (again) doing this?

Trump recently said the Paris Agreement would cost the United States billions of dollars. He was referring to commitments by developed economies to provide developing economies with $100 billion in subsidies, facilitating their transition to renewable energy. The United States is also traditionally opposed to any form of carbon penalty imposed on polluting companies and has not established a carbon market.

Trump has also consistently supported domestic production of fossil fuels as a form of national energy security. He did not explain why he does not see domestically produced renewable energy in the same way.

Investments already made in fossil gas in the United States will double U.S. gas production and exports over the next five years, said Michalis Mathioulakis, academic director of the Greek Energy Forum think tank in Thessaloniki. Trump will of course take credit, but you can't increase production in a short period of time.

Mathioulakis, like many other analysts, believes that the United States wants to supplant Russia as Europe's main supplier of fossil gas because it sees European dependence on Russian gas as a handicap in terms of security. It also deprives Russia of its most lucrative market, and therefore its tax revenue.

Without fail [the US] The country is trying to supplant Russia in the global market, Mathioulakis said. Let us not forget that the lifting of the embargo on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports occurred under [former US President Barack] Obama.

Will this stop the energy transition in the United States?

Trump's first effort to stop the decarbonization of the economy failed.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that 35,723 megawatts of coal-fired power plants were retired during Trump's first term, more than in the first six years in office of President Obama. They were replaced by less polluting fossil gas plants, a trend that began under Obama and continued unabated during Trump's first term.

Reversing the clean energy momentum in the United States and around the world won't be easy, said Nikos Mantzaris, founder of The Green Tank, an energy think tank in Athens. Renewable energy is by far the cheapest form of energy and in the United States, states make their own decisions.

Solar and wind power grew during Trump's first term and surpassed coal power for the first time in U.S. history in December 2020, as Trump prepared to leave office.

This trend is expected to continue.

In 2022, President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), providing $270 billion in tax credits and other incentives to invest in renewable energy. As of August last year, the IRA had spurred $215 billion in investment in solar and wind power generation, and the government offered homeowners $8 billion in tax credits to make renovations energy efficient.

Biden's stated goal was to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 40% from 2005 levels by 2030, and by 60% in 2035. Biden approved a series of projects from IRA during his last two months in office, and these grants will continue to be paid. until 2032, four years after Trump leaves office.

The EIA projects that most of the increase in U.S. electricity consumption in 2025 and 2026 will be driven by solar energy.

This is part of a global change.

The International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organization and think tank based in Paris, predicts that renewable energy will account for two-thirds of electricity generation in developed economies in 2030.

Mathioulakis also thought Trump's policies wouldn't make much difference. But there will be a slowdown in the transition to solar and wind power for other reasons, he told Al Jazeera.

Wherever we have seen rapid development of renewable energy sources, when these reached more than 40 percent of the energy mix, there were problems, namely that we cannot expand the use of clean energy without developing electricity storage and flexible networks, Mathioulakis said. So there was a slowdown. It was going to happen in Europe and the United States anyway.

How much carbon does the United States put into the air compared to others?

The United States is the world's second-largest polluter after China, emitting 6 billion tons of carbon-equivalent gas in 2023, according to the World Resources Institute. This represents about 16 percent of the world's 37 billion tonnes.

China tops the list, with more than twice U.S. emissions. The European Union and India follow the United States with around 3.4 billion tonnes each.

How are other nations reacting?

China's Foreign Ministry said it was concerned about the US withdrawal.

Climate change is a common challenge facing all humanity. No country can stay out of this, says a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing.

European Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra called the development truly regrettable.

Does this expose US products to carbon taxes in the EU?

The European Commission which has just taken office is reportedly seriously considering imposing a carbon tax on goods imported from countries that do not have a carbon market like the Emissions Trading System (ETS) of the EU.

The ETS sells carbon credits to polluters, encouraging them to switch to cleaner forms of energy.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aims to level the playing field for European energy companies and manufacturers competing with countries that do not impose costs for pollution.

If Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on European exports to the United States, it will make CBAM against the United States much more likely.

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