British inflation recovery due to signs of restoring the Yeongran Bank interest rate dilemma | inflation

Rachel Rachel Reeves is the fastest cutting of jobs in four years, and Bank of English is facing dilemma in signs of inflation pressure.

According to an influential corporate survey before the decision of the light rate on February 6, economic growth has risen slightly in the UK's dominant service sector in early 2025.

However, S & P Global's January Flash Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), which is closely monitored by banks and finance, indicates that the average price of a British private sector is rising at the fastest speed for 18 months.

Employers have also cut their jobs at the fastest speed since Kobid Pan Demicks reached its peak in 2021. Except for health emergencies, the rate of job cuts was the highest since the 2009 global financial crisis.

In addition to the pressure on the Labor Party after the difficult year of the financial market, the retail sales continued to decline in January after the disappointing Christmas, and consumer reliability fell to the lowest level since the end of 2023.

Chris Williamson, the chief business of S & P, says that the inflation rises again, giving the Bank of Youngran Bank. He added that the UK is facing a stagflation environment that combines poor economic growth and high inflation.

While the stagnant economy and worsening job market have increased the need for interest rates to promote growth, the increase in inflation suggests that inflation genie has never returned to its place.

City investors expect the bank to cut interest rates from the current level of 4.75%at the next policy meeting on February 6, while the inflation value is better than expected and there is concern about economic growth.

The financial market reflects 81%of the probability of lowering it to 4.5%. But city traders warned that central banks' borrowing costs are likely to be limited due to inflation pressure rising. Investors are pricing to cut two 0.25 percentage points in 2025.

Inflation fell again from 11%, the highest in the second half of 2022, after energy prices rose due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, it has fallen below 2%of the bank's goal last fall, but has risen to 2.5%, and investors predict that they can exceed 3%in a few months.

Mark Dowding, chief investment officer of RBC Bluebay Asset Management, said, “It is expected to cut to 4.5%.” february.

but, [we continue] Seeing that inflation is stubborn at 3.5 ~ 4% means that we are hard to see. [Andrew] Bailey can lower interest rates much more than this.

The British PMI preliminary figures rose slightly in January from 50.4 in December to 50.9, the highest in three months. 50.0 distinguishes between the growth and shrinking of private sector activities.

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Analysts warned that inflation will rise after the increase in the upper limit of the OFGEM energy price in January, and an additional increase in April is expected. Product price inflation is also rising, and wholesale food prices have also increased in recent months.

Companies also warned that Reeves's October budget would reduce jobs or raise prices after a 25 billion won increase in employer national insurance premiums and a 6.7% increase in the minimum wage.

Begbies Traynor, a bankruptcy expert, said the number of British companies in bankruptcy in 2024 increased 50% from the previous quarter. According to the report, 46,850 companies are suffering from serious financial difficulties, especially consumer face -to -face sectors such as hotels, leisure and retailers.

The prime minister tried to re -declare the Labor Party's commitment to the British economic growth by making pro -corporate commitments at the World Economic Forum held in Davos last week. Reeves is also expected to go further and will be speeches next Wednesday.

According to a separate figure of the CBI lobby group, retail sales decreased year -on -year, while the closely observed GFK consumer confidence index fell to the lowest level since the end of 2023.

CBI's chief economist, Martin Sartorius, said: Recent growth shows that the government has an urgent need to inject momentum into the economy, so the government helps to strengthen trust in major sectors, including sleeves. We need to look at the means of policy.

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