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Britain's 100-year partnership with Ukraine is a pointless political stunt | opinion
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a 100-year partnership between the two countries at a meeting in Kiev on January 16. On the eve of Donald Trump's inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, this was Starmer's attempt to position the UK as: Zelenskyy is Ukraine's best friend at a time when he needs all the friends he can get. In fact, the 100-year partnership doesn't seem to offer anything new.
Treaties are the circuits that make relationships between countries function. VIP visits to other countries spark a scramble to agree deals that could be announced as a sign that the two countries are focused on strengthening their partnership. Since 1892, Britain has concluded more than 15,000 treaties. This agreement with Ukraine must be viewed from that perspective.
For example, the UK and Qatar reached several agreements during the state visit of His Highness Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in December 2024, including a $1.3 billion agreement on fintech and green energy cooperation and an agreement to increase joint financing. . Humanitarian project.
Sometimes these agreements are promoted by one party more aggressively than the other in the hope of creating something to celebrate. I brokered a cultural agreement between the UK and Indonesia during President Megawati Sukarnoputri's visit in the summer of 2002. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reluctantly agreed to what it saw as a meaningless document, knowing it was important to the Indonesian side.
Prime Minister Starmer and President Zelenskyy expressed their sincere commitment to a 100-year partnership. But that doesn't make sense. Both men appear to be holding on to good news at a time when Western policy toward Ukraine appears likely to change.
The newly inaugurated President Trump set a goal of ending the war in Ukraine within 100 days. Even if the new U.S. administration continues some level of military aid to Ukraine, it is questionable whether it will match the massive $175 billion in aid that has been provided since the war began in 2022.
Germany, Ukraine's second-largest donor, has cut its financial support in half over the past year, and its leaders are fighting over an additional $3 billion aid package ahead of the election.
This will leave Britain, Ukraine's third-largest donor and perhaps its most ardent supporter, trying to fill a growing gap in political, financial and military support for the country.
But that would be impossible.
By government spending standards, the £4 billion ($5 billion) the UK has provided to Ukraine each year from 2022 is quite small. In fact, it is a very small amount compared to what the Americans have donated, and nothing compared to what the Germans have paid more generously.
Plus, no matter how much Prime Minister Starmer wants to, the UK doesn't have any more money to donate.
The current Labor government has been rocked by bad news on the economy since coming to power in July 2024. With UK government debt exceeding 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) and the interest paid by the UK soaring to record levels, government borrowing forced Starmer to warn the public about potentially merciless cuts to public services while in Ukraine.
After mishandling cuts to winter fuel prices for older people, the Labor government appears likely to cut disability benefits.
This is bad news for the British people and for Zelenskyy in Kyiv.
Unlike the United States, Britain's Ukraine policy enjoys strong support in a bipartisan parliament. The UK's mainstream media has also shielded both Conservative and Labor governments from criticism of their Ukraine spending.
But with Trump pushing for ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia and economic bad news piling up in the UK, British government spending on Ukraine will not be banned forever.
Building on this, despite the catchy title, there has been little new in the Centenary Partnership announcements over the past few weeks. Britain and Ukraine have already agreed a 568-page political, free trade and strategic partnership agreement that was submitted to parliament just before war broke out in January 2022.
The strategic dialogue announced last week was incorporated into the 2020 treaty. Annual military funding of US$3 billion ($3.7 billion) has been in place since the war began, and a US$2.2 billion ($2.7 billion) loan was agreed within the G7's $50 billion Special Revenue Acceleration Loan to Ukraine in June 2024 .
The only new funding was a piecemeal $40 million to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in Ukraine's devastated economy, to be financed from Britain's development assistance budget.
There was no big reveal. There are no wow moments.
Just a big dose so what?
Britain cannot afford to provide more funding to Ukraine.
It may change in 100 years, but it will not change anytime soon.
Her Majesty's Government will also not make a firm commitment to provide $3 billion in annual military aid to Ukraine for 100 years. No government on earth would do that.
The Starmers are offering this support for as long as it takes to provide an outlet for spending cuts when a truce brokered by Trump is agreed.
A ceasefire in Ukraine would put pressure on Kiev to scale back its massive military spending, which accounts for 50% of government spending and a quarter of GDP each year.
A truce brokered by Trump would, at least in theory, reduce the need for foreign aid.
Including 100 years in the name of this agreement makes no legal sense in any case, as a country can withdraw from the treaty at any time. Russia and the United States have withdrawn from several nuclear disarmament treaties in recent years, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the New START Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Weapons.
There is no guarantee that a future UK government will not scrap this agreement on the grounds that it is a potentially costly political millstone.
The 100-year agreement is just a political maneuver. It is Starmer's breathless attempt to show that Britain can back Western support for Ukraine at a time when Trump, with whom he has a terrible relationship on all fronts, is trying to reassert much-needed realism in Ukraine policy.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
Sources 2/ https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/1/24/uks-100-year-partnership-with-ukraine-is-a-meaningless-political-stunt The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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