Elon Musk says Tesla will double American production over the next two years, let's do the calculation

Elon Musk said today that Tesla will double her production of electric vehicles in the United States over the next two years.

What would it look like? Let's do the calculation.

Today, during a press conference to promote Tesla at the White House, Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, said the following:

Depending on the great policies of President Trump and his administration, and as a act of faith in America, Tesla will double the production of vehicles in the United States over the next two years.

This raises many questions, because the phrasing of the declaration musks suggests that Tesla plans to add the production capacity in response to Trumps policies.

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However, reality could be different.

What is the current teslas production capacity in the United States?

We only know the installed capacity of Teslas, which is very different from its real production rate.

These are Teslas the latest world production capacity disclosed at the end of 2024:

REGIONMODELCAPACITYSTATURUSCALIFALIDEL S / MODEL X100,000 ProductionModel 3 / Model Y> 550,000 Productionshangomodel 3 / Model Y> 950,000 ProductionBerlinColdModel Y> 375,000 ProductiontyBercodel Y> 250,000 Productioncybertruck> 125,000 ProductionCybercAbin Developmentvadates Semolotbolotis Development

In the United States, this increases 1,025,000 vehicles per year.

In reality, the teslas factories work at a much lower capacity.

Based on sales and stocks from 2024, Tesla currently built less than 50,000 Model S / X vehicles per year, against an installed capacity of 100,000 units.

With regard to model 3 and model Y, Tesla currently builds them in the United States at a rate of around 600,000 units per year, compared to an installed capacity of more than 800,000 units.

Finally, cybertruck is produced at a rate of less than 50,000 units per year, compared to an installed capacity of more than 125,000 units.

This is added to Tesla producing 700,000 units per year in the United States in 2024.

What will be the new Teslas capacity?

Since Musk has mentioned that this will happen over the next two years, it is unlikely to refer to the installed capacity.

The CEO most likely talks about the real production of teslas, which would also have a meaning, especially if the production has been mentioned.

Tesla is currently producing around 700,000 vehicles a year in the United States.

The doubling of this would mean bringing the total to 1.4 million units per year, which would be an incredible feat, but it is not entirely a new plan for Tesla.

First of all, Tesla has already announced its intention to unveil two new more affordable models this year. These models will be built on the same production lines as the 3 / Y model, which would allow Tesla to fully use its installed capacity for these vehicles.

It is already 200,000 additional units.

As already mentioned in Teslas Installed Capace Table, the company is currently developing its production plant for the semi-electric Tesla truck in Nevada.

Production should start later this year and accelerate next year. Tesla previously mentioned a target of 50,000 units per year. This would leave Tesla about a year and a half to increase to this capacity, which is ambitious, but not impossible.

Then there is the cybercab, which was unveiled last year.

Cybercab will use the Testlas New generation vehicle platform and a new manufacturing system, which is already deployed at Gigafactory Texas.

Production should start in 2026 and Musk mentioned a production capacity of at least 2 million units per year. However, he said it would probably come from more than one factory and do not know if the other factory would be in the United States.

Be that as it may, Tesla should accelerate cybercab production in the United States to 450,000 units for the announcement of musks is correct.

It is fair to note that all of this was part of the teslas plans before the American elections, prevails over power or the implementation of any policy.

Environments take

Based on my analysis, this announcement is nothing new. It is just a reiteration of elons' plans for Tesla in the United States, which was established long before Trump arrives in power or even before Trump officially supports.

It's just more puffier of companies as the lawyers of elons would say.

In addition, if I was not clear, we are only talking about production here. I doubt that Tesla will have the request for this, especially if Elon remains involved in the company.

Cybercab does not even have a steering wheel, and if Tesla does not solve self-deputy, it will be difficult to justify the production of 450,000 units per year.

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