Proposal for a ceasefire from the United States-Ukraine: what could Russia demand? | Conflict news

Russia has not yet been responsible for the 30-day cease-fire proposal agreed by the United States and Ukraine after representatives of the two countries engaged in talks in the Saudi Arabs on Tuesday.

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who attended Jeddah talks, said at a press conference afterwards: I will talk to my Russian counterpart in the coming days.

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, dressed in military fatigue, visited Kursk for the first time since the Incursion des Ukraines last year, welcoming Russian war efforts.

But the experts say that it is unlikely that Russia accepts the American-Ukrainian proposal without demanding its own satisfaction.

So what's going on in the cease-fire proposal and what could Russia be used?

What are the cease-fire conditions agreed by the United States and Ukraine?

After Jeddah's talks, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy published a joint statement describing the terms of a ceasefire.

The press release indicates that the two countries had agreed from an immediate 30-day ceasefire. He added that as a result, the United States has raised the break on military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine.

The document also said that Jeddah's discussion highlighted the importance of humanitarian efforts during the ceasefire period. These include the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees and the return of the Ukrainian children transferred by force.

However, the proposal makes no mention of sanctions against Russia or security guarantees for Ukraine. He also does not mention the withdrawal troops of Ukraine from the Kursk Russia region.

Trump previously rejected the idea that the United States offers security guarantees, leaving this question to Ukral European allies.

However, under the proposal agreed between the United States and Ukraine, the latter declares that it wants its European partners to be involved in the peace process. Some of the Ukraine European allies, such as the United Kingdom and France, are discussing security guarantees for the country.

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that it would examine the details of the United States proposal before making an assessment.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia would not rush to a decision, Al Jazeeras Dorsa Jabbari reported in Moscow.

Addressing Irish Taoiseach Micheal Martin at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said: Our people are going to Russia right now while we are talking. And I hope we can get a ceasefire from Russia. Trump added that he had received positive messages on the ceasefire, but a positive message means nothing.

Several media reported that Trumps Special sent for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will go to Russia to speak to Putin in the coming days.

How could Russia react to the cease-fire proposal?

It is unlikely that Russia accepts the ceasefire as it is, according to several analysts.

I think [Russia] The rejection of the agreement will be politically reckless, diplomatically, but accepting it at the moment, this will not happen, Marina Miron, post-doctoral researcher in the Department of Defense Studies of Kings College in London, told Al Jazeera.

Keir Giles, principal researcher at the Chatham House Think Tank, based in London, said: it would be strange and out of nature if Russia accepts the current proposal without submitting additional requests.

Moscow could accept a form of ceasefire, but I do not see the Kremlin changing its fundamental strategic objective of subjugating Ukraine and having the world of its brutal aggression accepted and validated, told Al Jazeera Mikhail Alexseev, professor of political science at the San Diego State University. If Russia is seriously interested in lasting peace, it would quickly agree with the ceasefire and would carry out negotiations on its withdrawal of troops from at least some of the territories occupied by the Ukraines.

What could Russia demand in exchange for a ceasefire? Lifting sanctions and safety guarantees

Giles said Russia is encouraged to put pressure on permanent restrictions on safety guarantees given to Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions, among other potential requirements.

Since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, the United States and other Ukraine allies have imposed at least 21,692 sanctions against Russia, targeting individuals, media organizations, the military sector, the energy sector, aviation, naval construction and telecommunications, among other sectors.

Alexseev declared that a lifting of sanctions would help Russia to rebuild, to regroup and to resume war when it is ready and when it will see the attention and the resources of other great powers diverted elsewhere.

Withdrawal of Ukrainian Kursk troops

Another request that Russia could make is that the Kursk region is rid of the Ukrainian troops, said Miron. On August 6, 2024, the Ukrainian forces launched a surprise foray into Kursk Russia, entering the territory in Russia.

Ukraine has since lost ground in Kursk and the Russian army has announced rapid gains. Valery Gerasimov told Putin during her Wednesday visit that Russian forces had won 1,100 square km (425 square miles) from Kursk.

Miron added: until the ceasefire is implemented and everyone is on the same wavelength, time will pass, which will probably give the Russians the time necessary to recover at least Kursk so that he suppresses the potential negotiation bonuses for Ukraine.

US Backing for Russia requests

If past performance is a guide, [Russias] Requests are supported by the United States, said Giles.

I don't think Ukraine had a kind of dictating the rules here. The United States has said it is your choice, you are no longer a subject, you are an object. This is what has really been demonstrated.

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