Trumpes the Ukrainian peace proposal would recognize Crimea as part of Russia

During Trumps' first term, Ukraine feared that Trump will recognize Russian control over Crimea, the Ukrainian Peninsula Moscow was forcibly seized in early 2014.

As a candidate, Trump had said that he would examine the question, even if the Obama administration and the Americas allies had rejected the Russian annexation of the strategic territory. Trump even thought that the people of Crimea, from what I heard, would prefer to be with Russia.

But Mr. Trump never followed and even doubled against Moscow. In July 2018, the Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, published an official Crimean Declaration, undertaking to ensure that the policy of non-recognition would remain until the Ukrainian territorial integrity is restored.

Now, in his efforts to negotiate the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Trump is ready to move away from this declaration and more than a decade of American policy.

A new peace proposal that the Trump administration proposed in London on Wednesday would include recognition of the United States that Crimea is part of Russia, said US and European officials.

Daniel Fried, a former diplomat with a wide experience in Ukraine and Russia, described him as worse element of Trump's proposal, which is largely considered to strongly promote Moscow's position in several ways.

This is one thing to stop fights along the current battle lines without demanding that Russia withdraw from the vast band in eastern Ukraine that it occupies, said Mr. Fried. Officially recognizing Russia’s pretension to Crimea would be much worse, he said.

It is perfectly reasonable to accept reality that for an indefinite period of time, certain parts of Ukraine will be under illegal Russian occupation, said Mr. Fried. It is quite a thing to officially recognize a change of borders by force.

This point of view echoes the declaration of Mr. Pompeos, who confirmed an international principle of foundation shared by the democratic states: that no country can change the borders of another by force.

We do not know how enthusiastic Trump was about such speeches by Mr. Pompeo, who was notably more bellicist towards Russia than the president he served. But this point of view was widely shared in Washington, notably by Mr. Pompeos, the possible successor, Marco Rubio.

As a senator, Mr. Rubio spread a measure in October 2022 with the exception of the United States to recognize the Russian claims to any part of the Ukral land, warning that this would risk establishing a dangerous precedent for other authoritarian regimes, such as the Chinese Communist Party, to imitate. Mr. Rubio and others have been feared for a long time that China was more likely to try to conquer Taiwan if it sees the West conceded control of Ukraine in Russia.

The idea of ​​recognizing Crimea as Russian is a total non-start for Ukraine and its defenders. Wednesday, the president of the Ukraines, Volodymyr Zelensky, excluded the possibility, affirming that this would violate the constitution of his country: there is nothing to say. It is our land, the land of the Ukrainian people, he said.

But Trump later seemed to distinguish between the recognition of Crimea as Russian by Ukraine, where public opinion would make this stage almost impossible and by the United States. No one asks Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as a Russian territory, Trump wrote.

Some analysts believe that Mr. Zelensky and European officials may be able to tolerate such an American position, even if they do not agree, if they are not in a hurry to approve it.

For some, Mr. Trumps, who remains a part of a proposal that could still change, can simply recognize the facts on the ground.

Eleven years ago, the Russian forces responded to a pro-Western revolution in kyiv by taking control of the Crimea and by organizing a referendum there, largely denounced as illegitimate, which approved unification.

Since then, Moscow has only put its control. He constituted his military presence, forced the residents opposed to his reign and even built a large bridge connecting Crimea to continental Russia.

Analysts claim that the retirement of the peninsula would be extremely difficult for Ukraine, in particular since it could not eject Russia from its eastern territories after more than two years of combat to all.

Crimea is also of particularly high value for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. His port city of Sebastopol, where the Fleet de la Mer Noire de la Russia is based, is a major strategic asset and was the site of epic battles during the Second World War and the Crimean War in the middle of the 19th century.

And while Mr. Putin suggested that all of Ukraine belongs to Russia, he can feel particularly indignant at Crimea, which was part of the Russian Empire for hundreds of years until 1954.

It was then that the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred his control to kyiv as a gift for the 300th anniversary of Russian unification with Ukraine. It was a largely symbolic gesture at a time when Russia and Ukraine were other republics within the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991.

Samuel Charap, analyst and specialist in Ukraine at the Rand Corporation, said Trump had proven himself in terms of recognition to long -term territorial allegations. In 2019, he acknowledged his close Israels of the long -standing occupation of Syria Golan Heights. And in 2020, Trump supported the 45 -year -old Morocco complaint to govern Western Sahara in exchange for diplomatic recognition of the Morocco of Israel.

But Mr. Charap questioned the usefulness of making such a concession to Russia in the case of Crimea.

He quoted the precedent of the Welles Declaration of July 1940, in which the acting secretary of state, Sumner Welles, said that the United States would never recognize the Soviet occupation of Russia this summer of the States of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. (Mr. Pompeo cited this declaration in his 2018 Crimea declaration.)

This did not prevent a detection, or even an end negotiated in the Cold War, said Charap.

Mr. Fried accepted, adding that many in the United States and Europe initially sneered with the Welles Declaration as a joke. But he noted that the balls were ultimately free, after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Oops! He turned out to be premonitory, he added.

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