US-Chinese trade discussions start this weekend: what to expect

The best negotiators in the United States and China are expected to meet in Geneva on Saturday, while the two largest economies in the world seek to sail a way away from a deadly trade war that has disrupted global supply chains, slowed economic growth and has sent shock through electrical industries.

The talks will mark the first face -to -face meeting between senior officials of the two countries since President Donald Trump imposed historically high prices of 145% on most Chinese imports in early April. They come to Trump's heels crisscrossing a complete and complete trade agreement reached with the United Kingdom Thursday which left many key points of unresolved collage.

But the hopes of a breakthrough this weekend with the Chinese remain in a mute. Trumpwho has long described the trade deficits that the United States has with China and other countries this week to supervise the spectacular slowdown in China expeditions as a positive sign. We lost a dollars billion a year, now lost nothing, you know? This is how I look at him, he said on Thursday.

Some analysts are skeptical about the fact that the meeting will result in tangible results. The United States has not been particularly interested in what someone else wants, explains Mary Lovely, an expert in American-chinoine relations and a principal researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The United States still depend on China for many individual goods, so China still has a lot of power in this relationship.

Here is what you need to know about Saturday trade negotiations between the United States and China.

US officials will be led by the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the US trade representative Jamieson Greer, who reported that they consider these first talks as a chance to start to alleviate tensions. My feeling is that it will be a question of de -escalation, not the Big Trade agreement, told Fox News on Tuesday.

Chinese negotiators, led by the Deputy Prime Minister, He Lifeng, arrive with similar caution, ready to make concessions without a sign of American compromise. To put China to pressure or force in any way, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lin Jian, wrote on X.

However, the decision to bring senior negotiators on both sides to the table is considered by certain analysts as a step in a positive before months of economic rupture. While expectations for a breakthrough remain low, the fact that the two countries have agreed to speak indicates recognition of high costs of prolonged conflict. If we see something coming out about how the process could continue, it would be a victory, says Lovely.

Trump took a provocative tone before the talks, telling journalists on Thursday that his pricing strategy of administrations had left China without any matter and had expressed his confidence that the talks would be very substantial.

Trump cited several objectives in pursuing a trade war with China. On Thursday, he reiterated his interest in the market closely controlled the Chinas market to American companies and experienced conflict as a wider fight against what he calls unjust Chinese business practices: Aike to Wat Wath sea opens so that we can compete in China and give people something to which they never had, said Trump.

The abolition of non -pricing obstacles to American exports echoes the framework of a trade agreement that Trump reached with China during its first mandate that stipulated China would buy an additional $ 200 billion in US exports on 2020 and 2021. However, China was not short of these levels, does not buy the promised volume of American products. Bessent told Fox News that the Trump administration would take into account the non-compliance of Chinas when it would negotiate a new trade agreement.

Trump has been particularly exasperated that the United States remains the sole recipient of Chinese exports, but represented less than 13% of China's total exports. Its initial trade war strategy was focused on a series of increasing prices, culminating with the current rate of 145% on most Chinese imports and encouraging China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on American products. Trump predicted that his prices will lead to a resurgence of national manufacturing, while businesses are moving from factories to the United States to avoid import taxes.

The Trump administration also pushes China to take more aggressive measures against fentanyl traffic and its chemical precursors, which, according to experts, fueled an opioid crisis in the United States Trump told journalists on Wednesday that China will have to prevent fentanyl from concluding an agreement it signed with China during its first term.

Despite Trumps' insistence that the talks are substantial, those responsible on both sides have minimized the expectations of immediate resolution.

Analysts claim that the best result this weekend could involve a temporary break in price increases or a mutual agreement on both sides to continue the talks. But the fundamental problems dividing the two American requirements instantly, the insistence in the market and the insistence of Chinas on the maintenance of its economic model centered on the State, it is unlikely that it is resolved quickly.

LOVELY says that China is likely to have the upper hand in negotiations for three reasons: the United States depend on China for many products, China has grown markets outside the United States and President Xi Jinping is not faced with a future election. This could allow China to adopt a more patient approach in talks. I don't think China is desperate to conclude an agreement, says Lovely. Yes, that will harm China, but China has certainly not sought a trade war with the United States, the political support it needs to resist this storm.

Adding to Trump pressure, its prices have imposed serious pain on American companies and consumers. Toy players, electronics retailers and agricultural exporters have all warned of costs, while ports on the west coast signal a sharp drop in expeditions from China.

The two parties differ on who initiated this meeting

Despite the mutual decision to organize talks in Geneva, the two parties offer very different stories of the way Reunion has occurred, highlighting the continuous mistrust which defined the dead end between the two biggest economies in the world.

Chinese officials argued that the United States asked the talks, to whom Trump responded by telling journalists that they should go back and study their files.

We can all play games, he said. Who made the first call, who did not make them? It doesn't matter. This only counts what is happening in this room. But I will tell you that China wants to conclude an agreement.

The dispute on which the talks reflects deeper challenges: neither of the two parties wants to appear weak.

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