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The American trade agreement was the easy part. China will be exponentially more difficult

The American trade agreement was the easy part. China will be exponentially more difficult

 


CNN –

While officials of the Trump administration are preparing to meet Chinese officials in Geneva this weekend, it is tempting to believe that the announcement of the UK trade agreement will continue. Do not hold your breath.

I keep my expectations in check. The prices are high. Tensions are high. It is easier to impose prices than to relax, said Wendy Cutler, a former American commercial negotiator who is now vice-president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

President Donald Trump despises trade deficits from a situation where the United States bought more than another country than it sells. In his opinion, it is a sign that America is torn and unjustly treated. (Economists are much less convinced of his argument.)

Since China is the second world economy and a manufacturing supercenter, it may be without surprise that, with all trade partners, the United States ran the largest trade deficit with Beijing last year, with nearly $ 300 billion.

Trump therefore removed the most steep prices in China, with rates starting at 145% for most products. China responded by gutting a minimum rate of 125% on most American goods. The economies of the two countries are about to have massive success of the trade war, and bruises are already beginning to appear on both sides.

Investors and many companies and consumers from the two countries are impatient to see the situation improve and hope that the weekend talks, who mark the first official dialogue between senior U.S. and the Chinese government during Trumps' second term, will help. But it could also quickly turn south.

Cutler plans that the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the US trade representative Jamieson Greer, who meets his Chinese Prime Minister, He Lifeng, will raise the British trade agreement to show that their politics work and that other countries have concerns with China.

It does not matter that the rare details of the agreement in the United Kingdom reveal that it is a relatively small victory if one. And it was also a relatively easy -to -reach agreement.

It helps that the United Kingdom has much less to negotiate, with prices on its exports from 10%, which, even after the agreement, remains at these levels. Some cars from there get a slight break on the prices, and the Trump administration seemed to be involved that other sculptures are on the table. Another positive: the United States has led a trade surplus of $ 12 billion with the United Kingdom last year.

Its fundamentally balanced trade, Cutler told CNN. China, on the other hand, is a different animal.

Almost no one believes that this first cycle of talks will bring us back and bring us back the Chinese prices where he was before Trumps in the second term. This includes Bessent, who told Fox News earlier this week: my impression is that this weekend's discussions will focus on de-escalation rather than an important trade agreement.

Trump even said that he would not plan to reduce prices to bring China to the negotiation table on Wednesday. But Thursday, citing anonymous sources, the New York Post reported that the Trump administration was considering plans to reduce prices on China up to 50% next week.

In this regard, it is a positive sign that Trump said Thursday that he did not plan to avoid even higher prices on Chinese products. You can't get higher. This is 145, so we know that it is, Trump said in the Oval Office after announcing the British trade agreement.

Bessents' comments on de -escalation stood out in Susan Shirk, research teacher at UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy and Director emeritus of its 21st century Chinese Center.

What suggests is that this decoupling, this extreme level of prices, will move in the direction of going down to zero or a minimum level on both sides, said Shirk.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his administration, she said, act more disciplined in relation to previous talks with the United States. This suggests that they are not likely to spoil.

They are skeptical about Trump, and therefore they will be very careful, which, I think, puts the right type of pressure on President Trump, she said.

Shirk said Shes hoping that China shows how they make a good faith effort to reduce the flow of exports not only in the United States but to all these other countries.

In the cutlery, the best possible realistic result of the weekend talks would be if the two parties left with a process for a new commitment, she said. The chief among these would be to roll the ball on a call between Trump and Xi.

Trump suggested that Hed plans to speak with XI Thursday according to how the weekend talks are taking place.

On the other hand, the sky is the limit of the severity of these talks and the actions that the two governments could take accordingly. Cutler and Shirk have agreed that one of the worst scenarios would reflect the 2021 talks the leaders of the Biden administration held with Chinese officials in Alaska.

This quickly became disastrous for both parties, because civil servants had a very public spit with each other using a hard rhetoric in front of a series of journalists invited to cover what was initially intended to be brief opening remarks.

The worst thing that could happen is a kind of great explosion, and the media are there to report it, said Shirk.

This is exactly the type of meeting that we want to avoid, said Cutler, which was also the interim vice-uustr in the Obama administration.

Alaska is repeated, the worst possible result, she said, is that the United States and China put its positions on the line and do not find common ground, which will open the door at even higher prices to impose.

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