Treasury announces estimates of negotiable borrowing

Sources and uses tables

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Treasury Department today announced its current estimates of net marketable debt held by the private sector.[1] for the quarters of October-December 2025 and January-March 2026.

In the October-December quarter of 2025, Treasury plans to borrow $569 billion in net marketable private debt, assuming an end-December cash balance of $850 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $21 billion lower than announced in July 2025, primarily due to a higher cash balance at the start of the quarter, partially offset by lower projected net cash flow. Excluding the higher-than-expected cash balance at the start of the quarter, the borrowing estimate for the current quarter is $20 billion higher than reported in July. In the January-March 2026 quarter, the Treasury plans to borrow $578 billion of net marketable debt held by the private sector, assuming an end-March cash balance of $850 billion. ended the quarter with a cash balance of $891 billion. In July 2025, the Treasury estimated borrowings at $1.007 trillion and assumed an end-September cash balance of $850 billion. The $50 billion difference in net marketable borrowings held by the private sector is primarily the result of the increase in the quarter-end cash balance and the decrease in net cash flow. Excluding the higher-than-expected end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $10 billion higher than reported in July.

Additional funding details relating to the Quarterly Treasury Repayment will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.

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[1] Net marketable borrowings held by the private sector exclude refinancings (auction additions) of Treasury securities held in SOMA, but include financing required due to SOMA repurchases. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change the net marketable borrowing held by the private sector but, all else equal, as the securities mature and assuming that the Federal Reserve does not repurchase any maturing securities, it would increase the amount of liquidity raised for a given size of private auction by increasing the additional amount of SOMA. Additionally, buybacks are not expected to significantly affect net marketable debt held by the private sector, as new issues replace repurchased securities.

2

Cash balance

Quarter July – September

October – December Quarter

Hypotheses

Before

Current

Change

Before

Current

Change

Opening balance

$457

$457

$0

$850

$891

$41

Closing balance

$850

$891

$41

$850

$850

$0

Impact on borrowing

$393

$434

$41

$0

-41$

-41$

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