Robert Kagan explains why he thinks the United States risks defeat in Iran

Amna Nawaz:

For an overview of the state of the conflict with Iran, let’s turn now to Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and contributor to “The Atlantic.”

Welcome to “News Hour”. Thank you for joining us.

Robert Kagan:

THANKS.

Amna Nawaz:

So to set the context here, just so people know who we’re talking about, I want to point out that you were a co-founder of a neoconservative think tank. You have advocated for American intervention in Iraq for years, so you are not opposed to American intervention abroad.

But I want to remind people of what you wrote in “The Atlantic” in your last article on Iran. You said: “This conflict has revealed that America is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it starts. America’s defeat is therefore not only possible, but likely.”

Why are you so sure of this defeat?

Robert Kagan:

Well, I just don’t see what options Donald Trump has or is willing to pursue to open the strait.

And if Iran ends this conflict, as is currently the case, by controlling the strait, it will completely change the situation in the Gulf. This puts Iran in the driving seat. This gives Iran enormous leverage, not only in its relations with the United States, but also in its relations with the rest of the world.

If Iran can impose tolls, if Iran determines who enters and exits the strait and when, that is simply enormous power. And, in fact, I think that’s even more power than they would have if they were able to develop a nuclear weapon. And I don’t see what option Trump has to solve this problem, because they bombed Iran very effectively for 37 days.

They eliminated the entire leadership, and yet Iran never made a concession, and the administration was never able to do anything to open the strait. So I think the option that would be necessary would be a full-scale invasion of Iran if we really wanted to overthrow the regime and open the strait. I don’t think Donald Trump or the American people want to do that.

Amna Nawaz:

So when you hear the Israeli prime minister, for example, say that the war is not over, when you repeatedly hear the president and his cabinet not ruling out military action to reopen that strait, what else do you think could be accomplished militarily by the United States and Israel right now?

Robert Kagan:

Well, like I said, I don’t know what. Without a fundamental change on the ground in Iran, I believe, the United States does not have the capacity to open the strait.

Iran will be able to shoot him at all kinds of distances. And the United States cannot protect all ships in the strait with what it has. So I think we need a lot more. By the way, I’m not surprised that Bibi Netanyahu says this.

I think this war has the potential to end very disastrously for Israel, precisely because influence and influence in the region will shift from the United States and Israel to Iran and its supporters.

Amna Nawaz:

Let me take you back to where we are right now, with the hope or President Trump saying there could be concessions from Iran or a cease-fire.

President Trump likes to talk about who holds the cards in these negotiations, doesn’t he? He repeatedly said that the United States could resume some sort of bombing campaign, as you mentioned, which proved very effective early in the war. In your opinion, is this threat of a continued military campaign enough to induce the Iranians to make concessions?

Robert Kagan:

Well, the answer is clearly no.

I mean, the proposal that the Iranians just sent back in response to the negotiations, I would say, was a slap in the face to Trump. I don’t blame him for not wanting to take it. They are essentially asking the United States to pay war reparations, lift sanctions and allow Iran to formally control the strait.

It is therefore not the response of a nation that is afraid of new attacks. I would say that if you look at the current situation objectively, the country that is most afraid of starting war again is the United States, not Iran.

And Trump showed that for all his grand threats to destroy Iranian civilization, even when Iran violated the ceasefire by attacking American ships, Trump responded only by going after the place where the attack came from. He did not launch a larger attack on Iran.

It is therefore not inconceivable that Trump could order military action again. But I don’t think the Iranians believe, A, that he will actually do it, or, B, that it would be effective if he did it.

Amna Nawaz:

You now say that the defeat of the United States is likely. America, as you know, in history, does not say that it lost wars. This was not said in Vietnam, Afghanistan or anywhere else. What do you think is the best possible option for the United States at this time?

Robert Kagan:

Well, there is no good option. I don’t do it – again – and I don’t advocate it, but I think the only military solution should be a ground invasion that removes the Iranian regime from power.

And since I don’t think the United States will undertake this, I don’t really know what the answer is. Sometimes there is no answer. There doesn’t have to be a solution. In fact, one of the things I suggest in this article is that the Americans didn’t have as much impact on the global strategic situation – in all those other defeats you mentioned, the United States was able to.

And in some cases, the United States has managed to repair some of the damage. I just don’t see how the damage could be undone, without the kind of war that I don’t think we want to be fighting right now.

Amna Nawaz:

When you talk about the damage outside the region for the United States and its place in the world, what are you talking about?

Robert Kagan:

Well, first of all, this is all happening against the backdrop of the Trump administration destroying all of our alliances around the world. We have effectively destroyed the NATO alliance. Trump has made it clear that he is not interested in supporting our European allies and that, as a result, our European allies are going in a different direction.

I think we’re going to see the same thing in East Asia, if we haven’t already. The Japanese and Koreans are paying a huge price. They’re almost entirely dependent on this energy supply and they’re going to have to start figuring out how to take care of themselves.

So there is a great general global collapse, but specifically in the case of the Gulf, the United States was hegemonic in the Gulf, and many nations were dependent on the United States’ supremacy in the region and its ability to impose a general peace.

The United States has now demonstrated not only that it cannot, but that it is not: it cannot really be trusted to make sound strategic decisions. So I think that even the Gulf countries that depend on the United States will have to look elsewhere.

The net result, then, is a real decrease in American influence in the world and, undoubtedly, an increase in the influence of China, first and foremost, but also of Russia. So far, they are, to some extent, the biggest beneficiaries of the war, besides Iran.

And I say this in full awareness of the fact that Iran has suffered terribly, but it can still come out of this war and I think it will come out stronger than before the war started.

Amna Nawaz:

Joining us this evening is Robert Kagan from the Brookings Institution.

Thank you very much for your time. We appreciate it.

Robert Kagan:

THANKS.

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