Sam Zell warns of rising US debt

“The biggest risk is the currency debasement,” said Zell, 79. “We’re very lucky to be the country of the reserve currency. It gives us more flexibility than any other country in the world, but it’s that kind of debt structure and that kind of irresponsibility. could lose us this status and which would have a material impact on the standard of living. “

While agreeing that some stimulus was needed following the impact of the deadly virus outbreak in March, he said it appears politicians have lost their discipline on debt and it could end badly despite the recently low interest rates, he speculated. “Particularly in an inflationary environment, we could easily see interest rates rise, which would be disastrous,” he said.

Zell has not expressed much support for local lockdowns implemented across the country that have closed businesses and meeting places to thwart the spread of the coronavirus. “I’m afraid the cure is more dangerous than the disease,” he says.

Given Zell’s legacy as a real estate investor who pocketed billions of dollars over a decade ago selling commercial office buildings just before the Great Recession lowered their values, Hoplamazian asked. Zell’s outlook in downtown office markets.

While it makes sense for people to leave cities for the time being because they don’t have to show up for work and can’t participate in restaurants, bars and other social places, Zell thinks in the longer term. The trend towards American urbanization will remain, he told me.

He is not a fan of remote work. He never liked bringing his work home and doesn’t have a home office, so he has been showing up to his River North office every day since the start of the pandemic, even answering the phone while away. other colleagues.

Now his employees are entering the office in a staggered fashion. He dismisses predictions of a huge swing away from the office.

“All these scholars who talk about the end of offices and the end of people working together are laughing at themselves,” he said. “There’s a reason our system is based on supervision.”

That said, he still doesn’t believe the concept of corporate group office space like WeWork will thrive because people will move away from sharing spaces with strangers. Indeed, he believes that excessive construction to suit this notion will result in the creation of a lot of empty space.

“The office market is basically going to end up suffering from a significant oversupply because we got information about occupancy that we thought was real, but was not,” he said.

Zell, who recently set up a company to invest in the distribution of industrial products, said he currently does not own any office buildings and is also happy that he does not own hotels.

Zell said he doesn’t see as many troubled opportunities as in previous recessions, at least again, because banks and lending institutions aren’t cleaning their portfolios yet. “It is still very early and the real economic impact of COVID is in the future,” he said.

Family businesses looking to take money off the table are his current interest. “These kinds of situations have always existed, but I’ve never seen so many,” he says.

He took over some of those companies or bought large minority stakes, he said. He sees these opportunities in particular in what he called “logistics agreements”. The only example he gave was a recent investment in a large family-owned agricultural services business.

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