This week begins with the release of index data from Flash Purchasing Managers, which provides investors with the clearest indicator of how much the second coronavirus infection and closure has hit business activities across Europe.
Policymakers are preparing to ease the Covid-19 blockade across Europe as new infections have slowed in most countries as restrictions imposed in late October begin to bring results.
This is driving a request from retailers to end mandatory closures of stores that are considered not required during the most profitable trading month of the year.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to outline plans on Monday for what will happen after Britain’s national blockade expires on December 2. Large-scale testing is expected to play a big role in preventing the recurrence of the epidemic.
The UK has no budget this fall, but instead will be spotlighted when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announces the government’s spending review this Wednesday. This will be accompanied by an update of the overall economic and financial outlook from the Office of Budget Responsibility.
Brexit negotiations will resume online after being halted last week after one of the negotiators tested positive for Covid-19.
The United States will sit down for Thanksgiving on Thursday, and many will celebrate under Covid restrictions. Also, the end of the year shopping season begins.
Daily coronavirus cases in the U.S. are at record levels and the average mortality rate has reached its highest since May.
In a year known to bring families together, health professionals and officials are urging Americans not to travel to prevent further spread of the coronavirus.
Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have minutes of their last meeting this week, and investors will find clues as to what moves the central bank will make next.
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UK Spending Review
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will announce the government’s spending plans on Wednesday addressing the coronavirus’s impact on the UK economy and addressing initiatives to protect jobs.
Sunak paved the way for a big tax hike in the spring. It warned that the spending review would include predictions that reveal the “scale of the economic impact” of the Corona 19 crisis.
In general, reviews containing a three-year overview were limited to one year due to uncertain economic conditions. The Office of Budget Responsibility will also announce its economic outlook on the same day, and the Office of Debt Management will announce the remittance.
Government borrowings reached £268 billion in the period between April and October this year. This is because the government has funded additional initiatives and increased spending to address the Covid-19 crisis.
As the government already plans to freeze wages and cut compensation for the public sector, excluding NHS frontline workers, a sharp increase in total public sector net debt could reach £2076 billion, potentially seriously damaging public finances.
Corporate news and revenue
Former High Court Judge Elizabeth Gloster will release a report on Monday on how the Financial Conduct Authority handled the London Capital & Finance investment fund collapse.
Dame Elizabeth’s account for a mini bond scandal that cost investors £236m has been held more than once due to FCA’s delay in disclosure.
Investors will be watching an update on Aviva’s new strategy, including potential sales in European units when insurance companies report on Thursday.
Senior executives from some big miners such as BHP, Anglo American and Rio Tinto will attend Imarc, Australia’s largest sector online conference, a four-day event ending on Friday. Rio Tinto’s reputation has recently declined due to scandals over the destruction of ancient Aboriginal sites in Australia.
As the mining sector fights to stay relevant in an era where investors increasingly focus on social, environmental and governance issues, new green technologies that drive the industry towards a more sustainable future will be a hot topic of discussion at the conference.
Enel, an Italian energy group, will present a strategic plan on Tuesday that will outline its strategy to accelerate the reduction of its carbon footprint. Analysts will look at plans for the group’s 50% stake in the broadband company Open Fiber.
Motor Oil and Lukoil will release their third quarter results on Tuesday, and Gazprom will release revenue on Thursday.
Retail sales increased in the UK in October as non-essential stores rush to buy Christmas gifts before closing. Fashion retailers in the UK don’t seem to have benefited much from the shift from service to goods following shoppers’ habits during the pandemic.
This week Urban Outfitters reports on Monday, followed by Gap, Nordstrom and Abercrombie & Fitch on Tuesday. Ted Baker announces the results on Friday.
Other companies reporting this week include tractor manufacturer Deere & Co, Chinese group Xiaomi, US electronics retailer Best Buy, US printer HP, Warner Music, pet food producer JM Smucker, UK meat processor Cranswick, Media There are groups Daily Mail and General Trust, publishers. Reach is the owner of the Daily Mirror and Daily Express newspapers and the owner of British defense contractor Babcock International.
The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes of this month’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, giving investors a glimpse at how seriously the U.S. Central Bank is considering providing additional stimulus in light of the surge in coronavirus cases around the world.
At the meeting in early November, there were no policy changes, but Chairman Jay Powell said he had discussed adjusting the asset purchase program to provide additional stimulus.
The Fed previously promised to buy US Treasury bonds indefinitely, and now the monthly purchase rate is $80 billion on all Treasury maturities.
One suggestion that has gained popularity among investors is that the Fed should focus most of its purchases on long-term debt.
On Thursday, the ECB will release the minutes of the end of October, promising “commodity rebalancing,” and investors will find more insight into the ECB’s options.
The Nigerian Central Bank is set to launch a two-day monetary policy meeting on Monday following a surprise cut of 100 basis points in September to strengthen Africa’s largest economy. During the weekend the country officially entered a second recession within five years.
In Kenya, the central bank will continue to hold after a 150bp cut this year, and Angola is likely to be put on hold.
The Ghana Central Bank is expected to hold a 14.5% interest rate on Monday.
Analysts expect to remain unchanged in Sweden, Kenya and South Korea on Thursday, but it is possible that Sri Lanka will lower the interest rates for fixed deposits and fixed loans the same day.
Colombia is expected to remain stable at 1.75% on Friday as the economy recovers.
This week’s Flash PMI will focus on when Eurozone data is expected to represent a further decline in business activity in November, as regulations recently imposed by many governments weigh on consumer spending and corporate investment.
According to the expectations of the Consensus Economist calculated by Reuters, the Eurozone’s overall PMI score, combining service and manufacturing, is expected to fall to 49.3, down from 50 last month.
It is the first time since June that the number indicating that most businesses are declining in activity compared to last month fell below the threshold 50 line.
The data, which is also expected to show a continuing decline in service activity and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, will increase pressure for the ECB to consider additional monetary stimulus at its December board meeting.
It may be too early for the US PMI on Monday to see the impact of recent regulations, but there is a lot of other data this week.
Wednesday’s announcement is set to show that personal spending has slowed somewhat in October and the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rebound has not been corrected.
The initial number of unemployment claims on Thursday is expected to decline to 730,000 a week ending November 16, down from 742,000 the week before the first increase in five weeks.
Other reports include the commodity trade balance, durable goods orders, new home sales, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November.
Export data from South Korea on Monday will provide guidance on the health of global trade and India will release its third quarter GDP report on Friday.
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