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Dollar stabilizes on US recovery hopes, Bitcoin near record $ 52,640

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A set of US dollar banknotes is deployed for a photo.

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The dollar traded against recent highs on Thursday after its first consecutive gains in two weeks, with optimistic data bolstering expectations that the U.S. economy would recover from the coronavirus pandemic faster than most of its peers.

Bitcoin traded near the all-time high of $ 52,640 hit overnight, rising around 58% this month, prompting some analysts to warn that the rally could be unsustainable.

Government stimulus helped U.S. retail sales rebound in January, while industrial production data and producer prices also provided upside surprises.

Investors expect new momentum from President Joe Biden’s proposed $ 1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package, with the president meeting with key labor leaders on Wednesday to garner support for the plan.

Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting last month reinforced the central bank’s willingness to let the economy warm up while maintaining ultra-accommodative monetary parameters.

“As we have seen over the past few weeks, the dollar has become more and more cyclical as there is now a link with Fed prices and the expected decline and probably also, with volatility indices. Generally low, we also have more leeway to focus on smaller relative differences, and the correlations between assets have declined, ”said Mikael Milhj, senior analyst at Danske Bank.

“Either way, retail sales have been a good event study to support our view that the US outperformance in H2 may support the dollar. This was not the case last year, where positive surprises would always be negative for the dollar, whatever the origin, because it removed the risks of deflation. “

The dollar index was down 0.2% to 90.675 on Thursday in London morning trade after strengthening 0.2% overnight and 0.4% on Tuesday.

The gauge has gained around 1% this year, rebounding from a nearly 7% drop in 2020 that extended to a two-and-a-half-year low of 89.206 in early January.

“Market conviction in the dollar’s weakness has weakened as US yields have risen, with net short positions retreating in recent weeks. But we don’t think rising yields will prevent a long-term decline in the US currency, ”the strategists said. at UBS Global Wealth Management in a note to clients.

“The dollar remains the most expensive currency we track in the G10, and rising twin deficits against a backdrop of generous budget spending will reduce its appeal. We believe that reflation is likely to cause commodity-linked currencies to rise, thanks to both increased demand and risk. sentiment, with our favorite currencies forecasting mid to mid-digit appreciation by the end of the year. “

The euro gained 0.2% to $ 1.2065 after slipping 0.5% overnight, the most in two weeks.

The dollar was almost flat at 105.735 yen, following a pullback on Wednesday after hitting a five-month high at 106.225.

The British pound traded above $ 1.39 against the dollar and hit a high against the euro of 86.70 pence. The pound is the best performing currency in the G10 against the dollar this year.

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