A number of data have been published in the UK, including information on employment figures, consumer prices and retail sales. Photo: Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Investors are filled with many economic announcements during a busy week and speeches from central bank officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of England (BOE) governor Andrew Bailey.
We will focus on bonds as global financial markets measure how much government bond yields can go up. It hit the highest in 13 months at the beginning of last week.
The four-day summit of the Bank of International Settlements Innovation, with major starring Powell, Bailey and European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde, kicks off on Monday.
The trio’s speech will be of particular interest as investors keep an eye on insights into policy decisions made by all the Feds, BoEs and ECBs this month.
On Wednesday, there will be major economic announcements including the Preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for plant and service activities in the UK, Eurozone and US.
A number of data have been published in the UK, including information on employment figures, consumer prices and retail sales.
Important developments over the weekend:
UK: employment figures, PMI, Bailey speech, CPI, retail sales
On Tuesday, a job report will be released that will better reflect last month’s impact than predicting a change in the number of claimants on the unemployment rate. Photo: Getty
The UK has an action-packed week of keeping FTSE 100 (^ FTSE) and Sterling (GBPUSD = X) busy.
First, on Tuesdays and Thursdays, there is BOE Governor Bailey. It came after the Central Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.1% last week.
The Banks Monetary Policy Committee also left the 850 billion ($1.24 trillion) quantitative easing program unchanged. This means that it will continue to buy UK government bonds up to 858 billion (and holding 20 billion corporate debt).
Investors will keep an eye on everything that can reveal the BoE’s plans in terms of rising bond yields.
On Tuesday, a job report will be released that will better reflect last month’s impact than predicting a change in the number of claimants on the unemployment rate.
The story continues
It was released alongside the February inflation figure, which hit 0.7% last month, and the flash manufacturing and services PMI for March, which hit 55.1 and 49.5 respectively in February.
To wrap up the busy week, retail sales data for February on Friday is expected to rebound after a 8.2% decline in January.
However, there are expectations that things will be brighter after the UK’s vaccine launch and will be better than the expected GDP figures for January.
“The biggest problem with retail sales will continue due to the closure of bars and restaurants. Even though recent retail figures have shown that the online and digital sales boom is helping to compensate for other areas, it is extremely calm. It is expected to show activity,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.
Key company results:
Kingfisher (KGF.L) 1 year (Monday)
IHS Markit (Information) Q1 (Tuesday)
YouGov (YOU.L) half a year (Tuesday)
Bellway (BWY.L) half a year (Wednesday)
Cineworld (CINE.L) Final (Thursday)
USA: Powell Speech, Personal Spending and Consumer Sentiment Data
Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve. Photo: Susan Walsh/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be in the spotlight as he is scheduled to appear several times this week. Two of them will be with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Powell is expected to participate in a virtual panel hosted by Bank for International Settlements on Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday he testifies with Yellen in front of the House Financial Services Commission and the Senate Banking Committee.
There will be a lot of interest in the bond market, especially with the central bank’s decision to end urgent capital bailouts for banks focusing on the upcoming Treasury auction. Low bank interest may intensify the sale of the bond market, eventually causing government bond yields to skyrocket.
Data wisely, there are existing home sales figures for Monday, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI for Wednesday, GDP figures for the last quarter, and unemployment claims figures for Thursday.
On Friday, along with the core PCE price index, there are tons of data on slate, personal income, personal spending and consumer sentiment.
Eurozone: Regionwide Flash PMI, Lagarde Speech, Coronavirus
Eurozone’s Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI closes on Wednesday. Photo: Getty
European countries have had a bad week, especially amid increasing coronavirus cases. This has raised concerns about the third wave and vaccine issues on the continent.
The reality of the third lockdown triggers new restrictions in more and more EU countries in countries such as France, Netherlands and Italy, while France enters a third lockdown in 16 regions, including Paris.
The continent is struggling with vaccination programs due to various delays and shortages.
However, on Friday, several EE countries resumed the launch of the Oxford-AstraZeneca (AZN.L) COVID-19 vaccine after EU pharmaceutical regulatory authorities determined it was safe and effective. Amid blood clotting concerns.
ECB Chairman La Garde will be attending a four-day summit at the Bank of International Settlements Innovation on Wednesday, and there will be comments on the possibility that a rise in yields will hit a potentially vulnerable euro (GBPEUR = X).
In addition to the epidemic and the ECB, there are regional-wide current accounts on Monday, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI on Wednesday, and German Ifo business climate figures on Friday.
Manufacturing in the region continues to show strong expansion and Germany has a good track record.
However, due to various closure restrictions, Germany and France, the two largest economies in Europe, are struggling with the hospitality sector being closed.
In Germany, the service sector has been shrinking for the fifth consecutive month, while in France it has performed poorly for the sixth consecutive month. But the situation in March continues to look grim as France enters a third containment and vaccine launch program in both countries, far behind schedule.
In addition, the German Cabinet will also sign the budget plan for 2022.
Example: What is inflation and why is it important?
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