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TREASURES – US yields fall as markets consolidate positions, but uptrend remains intact




* US yield curve steepens, after flattening on Friday * Eurodollar futures estimate full Fed hike by December 2022 * US service sector index hits record high (recast; adds analyst comment, updates prices) Reuters) – US Treasury prices edged up on Monday, pushing yields lower as investors halted the recent government bond sale and took profits on short positions, although the upward trend in rates remained intact after Friday’s nonfarm payroll report. Trade was calm at the start of the week, with most of Europe still on vacation for Easter Monday. China, Hong Kong and Australia have also been closed. The US yield curve, which has become a barometer of risk sentiment in the bond market, steepened on Monday after flattening the previous session. The spread between US 2-year and 10-year yields was 154 basis points. “The wage bill started to rise in rates and continued into the morning. As we watch the economy evolve, the market has pushed up the prices of rate hikes in the United States,” said Justin Lederer, Treasury Analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York. . “We rebounded. The market may have felt the moves were a little too fast.” The Eurodollar futures market, which tracks short-term interest rate expectations, has fully integrated a hike in US interest rates by December 2022, earlier than the fourth quarter of 2023 seen there. a few months. In afternoon trading, the 10-year US Treasury yield was last down 1.716%, after 1.72% on Friday. The US 30-year yield fell to 2.361% from 2.37% on Friday. At the short end of the curve, US 2-year rates fell to 0.172% from 0.19% on Friday. Earlier in the session, 2-year yields peaked at 0.194%, the same level hit at the end of February, which was roughly an eight-month high. Monday’s data remained supportive of the uptrend in Treasuries yields, with a U.S. services sector index hitting a record high of 63.7. That positive data has always prevailed over a report that showed orders for US factories tumbling more than expected in February. The downward momentum in Treasury bill prices remained, analysts said, more recently driven by the stronger-than-expected US jobs report for March. Data on Friday showed that the non-farm payroll in the United States jumped 916,000 last month, the biggest gain since August. Data for February has been revised upwards to show 468,000 jobs created, instead of the 379,000 previously reported. “The trend is still for higher yields and we see the 10-year hit 2% by the end of the year,” said Stan Shipley, bond strategist at Evercore ISI in New York. But he noted that there could be seasonal factors that could put downward pressure on yields. “We are seeing a pause in returns here, not only in the US, but around the world. We have traded around these levels for the past 10 years since mid-March,” Shipley said. April 5 Monday 3:08 p.m. New York / 1908 GMT Price Current net yield Change in% (bp) Three-month notes 0.02 0.0203 0.000 Six-month notes 0.03 0.0304 -0.010 Two-year note 99-231 / 256 0.1744 -0.016 Three-year note 99-168 / 256 0.3676 -0.022 5-year note 99-18 / 256 0.9414 -0.039 7-year note 98-252 / 256 1.4032 -0.017 10-year note years 94-160 / 256 1.7198 0.000 20-year bond 93- 160/256 2.2757 0.006 30-year bonds 89-152 / 256 2.3627 -0.007 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net change (bps) Swap 2-year US dollar 13.25 0.00 spread 3-year US dollar swap 16.75 0.00 US spread 5- one-year dollar swap 12.00 0.75 10-year US dollar swap spread 3.50 0 , 00 US dollar swap spread over 30 years -22.50 -1.00 spread (reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; edited by Dan Grebler and Chizu Nomiyama)

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