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Warning of possible third wave as UK continues on roadmap beyond blockade

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A nurse identifies a patient suffering from Covid-19.

Experts warn that there could be a resurgence of Covid-19 infection as the country continues its way out of lockdown.

Dr Mike Tildesley of Warwick University and a member of the Spi-M modeling group advising the government said there may be a third wave in the UK, but some modeling may not be as high as predicted.

He said infections could potentially increase as more social mix is ​​allowed.

And Professor Mark Walport, former government chief science advisor, said very good progress is being made on the roadmap, but a third wave is possible if the brakes are fully released.

PA graphics

This came after experts at the University of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in London suggested lifting restrictions in the next step of the roadmap could increase the number of cases and deaths slightly.

And their modeling suggested that phase 4 of June, where restrictions are expected to be lifted completely, could lead to a surge in cases and deaths similar to those seen in the first wave.

They warned that their findings were preliminary and made pessimistic assumptions about the later stages of the roadmap.

And scientists at the University of Warwick shared a similar conclusion that a distinct third wave of infection would occur due to the currently planned unlock rate, with hospital admissions peaking between late July and mid-August.

The minutes of the Scientific Advisory Group (Sage) meeting for the emergency room on March 31 said that hospital admissions of similar size to January 2021 could be revived after the latter stages of the roadmap.

But Dr. Tildesley told LBC Radio: I think we are getting a very high level of vaccination right now. We have to remember this. We are protecting the vulnerable.

However, the vaccine is not 100% defensive, so it can be revived by switching from the R number less than 1 you currently have, to a large mix later.

I don’t expect a resurrection on the same scale as we saw in January.

So I need some serious questions. If the number of cases increases and hospital admissions increase slightly, will it be controlled or will it be managed by local examinations, etc.?

As summer approaches, I think this is a question that the government will potentially have to answer.

However, Dr. Tildesley also said he was pleasantly surprised by the case level as schools resumed and that if cases continue to remain low, there may be some debate on the roadmap that should lift restrictions sooner.

(PA graphics)

Meanwhile, Sir Mark told the BBC Breakfast: It’s really very reasonable, as it is clear that you are making good progress along the roadmap and that the first set of limits is being relaxed is entirely appropriate.

But it was a long way to fully release the brakes. Vaccine releases are progressing incredibly smoothly. I’ve seen a significant drop in deaths…all of good news, but if you look at the channel, you can see that France is currently experiencing more than 39,000 new cases per day. So, the virus is still around. And it is clear that the risk of further infection is very high if we release all the brakes.

He added: What Spi-M modeling has shown is that even with a pretty effective vaccine, it’s not perfect, and not everyone will be vaccinated, and there will still be quite a few people who aren’t immunized by June, and that will create the environment. Another wave potentially.

It’s likely to be different from the first one because you know that the vaccine is very effective in getting people out of the hospital and preventing people from dying. So it’s important to focus on what the data at that time actually shows.

Professor Graham Medley of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and chairman of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling (SPI-M) said the third wave could lead to more deaths in the BBC Radio 4s Today program.

He shows that all three independent models published by Sage show that the likelihood of an increase in infection is almost inevitable because the virus begins to transmit more and the vaccine is not 100% safe. Hospitalization and death.

Medley asked why the third prediction was so pessimistic when the vaccine intake was high. This really depends on the effects of the vaccine, especially the transmission, so it depends on whether people can get infected and transmit the virus.

And we don’t know it. This vaccine did not exist in people in the real world… It started in December… So we don’t know what effect it will have after 3 or 4 months.

So it’s a question of real uncertainty.

The only thing we can be sure of is that we don’t know exactly what will happen. However, since the vaccine is not 100% effective, I know there will be some contagion and there will be a breakthrough in immunity.

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