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The paranoid style in COVID-19 America

 


To grasp the urgency to lift the ubiquitous economic closings, visit Central Park in New York, ideally in the morning. At 5:45 a.m., it was occupied by perhaps 100 runners and cyclists, spread over 843 acres. Many of these early bird practitioners wear masks. Are they trying to protect anyone they meet from their own unsuspected coronavirus infection? Perhaps. But if you run yourself towards an oncoming runner on a vector that will distance you at least three meters when you meet, it is likely to throw itself on the side of terror if your face is not covered . Masked cyclists, who roam the park’s inland route, seemingly think that there are enough viral particles suspended in the billions of square feet of fresh air flowing through the park to enter their mucous membranes and vomit them.

These are delusional beliefs, but they demonstrate the degree of paranoia that has infected the population. Every day the lockdown continues, its implicit message that we will all die if we go into normal life is reinforced. Polls show that an increasing number of Americans are choosing to continue economic quarantine indefinitely for fear of being dangerous. The more this belief is reinforced, the less likely it is that consumers will frequent reopened restaurants or board enough aircraft to bring the economy back to life.

The facts on outdoor viral transmission should be briefly reviewed in order to assess the rationality of New York park users. The chances of being infected through a wide open and windswept space are practically zero, even if the imaginary transporter did not move quickly in front of its potential victim. When it comes to viral infections, the dose is important. Proximity to the wearer, prolonged exposure and being in an enclosed space are the main risk factors. Even the New York Times, one of the most aggressive providers of viral hysteria, could not avoid acknowledging this common truth about outside transmission. The director of the Australian International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health told the newspaper: Outside, it is safe, and there is certainly no cloud of virus-laden droplets lying around. The infectious droplets would be quickly diluted in the outside air, said director Lidia Morawska, so their concentrations would quickly become insignificant. Bottom line: It is safe to go for a walk and jog and not to worry about the virus in the air.

Two days later, the Times, back in its crusade to terrorize citizens, published an entire page of infographics under the title: Social distancing: why 6 feet? A series of drawings showed the progression of the plague emitted by a cougar through the six feet separating it from its unsuspecting victim. Finally, this victim is almost invisible under the cloud of death which has descended on him. You must have read the fine print to learn that this simulation was taking place in a hypothetical 600 square foot room. However, The Times was not satisfied with its disturbing portrayal of the inner cough miasma. The bottom of the infographic page was a reminder that it’s not just coughing. Another cloud of illness has been shown to come from a flu-bearer who just talks. What makes such a conversation contagious? You must have consulted the fine print again: the transporter must speak for five minutes in an overcrowded and poorly ventilated area.

Scientific analyzes of how viruses move generally assume internal parameters. A recent study in China has confirmed that the vast majority of the risk of infection with a coronavirus occurs indoors. Researchers have identified only one outbreak of infection outside among more than a thousand cases studied. Most of the transmissions took place at home.

Japan, with an elderly and highly urban population of 126.5 million, avoided a nationwide economic deadlock and instead emphasized the need to avoid the three Cs: confined spaces, overcrowded places and close contact . As of April 26, only 360 people were killed.

The paranoids of Central Park, however, see the threat everywhere. A beefy, mature man is sometimes seated on a bench overlooking ball fields at the north end of the park. Upset by the fact that an unmasked jogger had run behind him, the man built a beaver dam in branches, torn from the surrounding trees, which extended behind the bench, so that no one could approach unless 10 feet from his back. Elsewhere in the park, a young jogger was running in the middle of the asphalt road, rather than in the path of the runners on the left. She rushed hurriedly to the left without looking behind her first. I approached on a bicycle and was knocked down, which resulted in a significant head injury. The girl had run in the middle of the road to avoid being infected by her jogging mates, she said without repentance after the collision, and thought she had seen an invasion of her virus-free area come from his right. In fact, there was nothing around her that could have exposed her to the infection.

The suburban counterpart of these urban neurotics is the unaccompanied driver wearing his mask in his car.

The public health facility is desperately fighting to maintain this degree of hysteria in the population, in order to extend its new power over almost all aspects of American life. Death will break out if the blockages are lifted, warn experts every few minutes on cable information networks, to the wrath of the anchors. He will backfire, warned Dr. Anthony Fauci on April 20. As the evidence continues to grow that the virus is less deadly than previously announced, public health professionals are tightening rather than softening prescriptions that kill the economy. David Kessler, a former FDA chief, says Americans will have to cut two-thirds of their social contacts for a year or more until a vaccine is developed. The federal government should requisition private factories to produce the millions of test kits that will be needed daily before anyone can be completely free, he says.

A professor of pediatrics warns that the restrictions should not be relaxed anytime soon, as models that show a decline in the number of cases after a spike are not reliable. Of course, the always inaccurate ascending slopes of these same models have been invoked endlessly to justify stopping.

Harvard epidemiologist predicts need for social distance at least until 2022. Employers should not let employees leave the office for lunch until a vaccine is developed, advises another former commissioner of FDA, Scott Gottlieb, and a former deputy director of the CDC. Restaurateurs may not appreciate this recommendation.

Allegedly disinterested scientists are circulating mysterious discoveries that have little impact on the real risk but have great potential for increasing anxiety. An infectious aerosol scientist from the University of Maryland told the New York Times for infographic papers on social distancing: it’s not like, oh its six feet, [the viral particles are] everything fell and there is nothing. It’s more like a continuum. Translation: dare not think that you are sheltered from others at distances greater than six feet. In fact, the Times notes with joy, with another scary diagram, MIT researchers observed particles of a cough moving 16 feet and those of a sneeze moving up to 26 feet. But dosing at such distances would be incapable of infecting anyone.

Experts question a post-latching infection outbreak may not be necessary, however. A majority of Americans already believe that danger is pervasive and are willing to sacrifice millions of additional livelihoods to feel secure. Seventy-three percent of those polled in a recent WSJ-NBC poll were concerned that they or an immediate family member would be infected, a proposition that would result in more than 300 million Americans infected. Although recent data from New York and California reveal that the viruss prevalence in the population has been much higher than what was previously known (and that the mortality rate is much lower than what our experts have claimed), it 300 million Americans are unlikely to be infected. Fifty-eight percent of survey respondents were more concerned about the loosening of home restrictions than about the economic damage that prolonged restrictions could inflict. Only 32 percent of respondents were more worried about not lifting the quarantine restrictions in a timely manner.

The comment sections of newspaper readers and the Twitter sphere rain just anger on anyone who suggests the most minimal recovery from normal life. Even blue state politicians are not immune to backlash. New York Mayor Bill De Blasio has been criticized for announcing that the traditional July 4 fireworks will take place. Well, find a way to put on a show that will show how much we love our country, he said in an unusual way. A representative Twitter commenter replied: is this really what worries people right now ???

We are in a race between the ideology of Safetyism and the facts. The future depends on which side prevails. The data is clear. The danger of coronaviruses is closely targeted on a very specific part of the national population: the disabled elderly, in particular those located in New York and its surrounding suburbs. It presents minimal risk for everyone. New York State accounted for 42% of the national death toll on April 24, with 77% of these deaths occurring in New York.

The average death rate from coronavirus in New York is 128 per 100,000. In New York State, it is 71 per 100,000. To put these figures into perspective, the national death rate from all causes was 723.6 per 100,000 in 2018; for heart disease, it was 163.6 per 100,000. New York’s coronavirus death rates don’t look like the country as a whole, despite a recent statement by New York Governor Andrew Cuomos that an epidemic anywhere is an epidemic everywhere. The coronavirus death rate in California is four deaths per 100,000; Pennsylvanias, 13 deaths per 100,000; Utahs, one death per 100,000; Washington states, nine deaths per 100,000; Wisconsins, four deaths per 100,000; Georgia, which we are supposed to believe, is on the point of launching a mortal plague on the country, eight dead for 100,000; Texass, two deaths per 100,000; and Floridas, four deaths per 100,000, despite its elderly population. An MSNBC expert happily predicted several weeks ago that Missouri would succumb because it hadn’t quit its economy early enough. Its virus mortality rate is four deaths per 100,000.

For a better perspective of these rates, the death rate from influenza and pneumonia in 2018 was 14.4 per 100,000, for kidney disease it was 13 per 100,000 and for diabetes, 21, 4 per 100,000. In other words, most of the country has suffered from a coronavirus which is significantly lower than the annual deaths from influenza and a host of other diseases.

The average mortality rate for coronaviruses in New York hides large differences in risk, as is true everywhere. The rate for people aged 75 and over is 950 per 100,000. This is seven times higher than the city-wide average, itself greatly influenced by this highest rate. For those 17 and under, the mortality rate from coronavirus is zero. This age disparity is typical. The average age of confirmed coronavirus deaths in Massachusetts was 82 years old on April 23.

People without pre-existing conditions are almost at no risk. As of April 23, 99% of all coronavirus deaths in New York had pre-existing conditions, where the presence or absence of such conditions was known. In Massachusetts, 98% of all coronavirus deaths had underlying conditions as of April 23.

Nursing homes are at zero point for the disease because their populations are exclusively disabled elderly people. According to a Wall Street Journal analysis, 23% of all coronavirus deaths in the country have occurred in nursing homes. In Minnesota, 73% of total deaths were related to long-term care facilities. In Massachusetts, 55% of all deaths occurred in such establishments.

Canceling most of the country’s economy for a problem, however tragic and very localized, was a devastating political error that must be corrected immediately. Locks block everything that makes human existence both possible and meaningful. Lives are lost because of the overreaction. Victims of heart attacks and strokes are reluctant to call 911 for fear of overloading hospitals dedicated exclusively to COVID-19 cases. Cancer victims have had their stem cell transplant suspended; heart surgeries are postponed indefinitely. The cancellation of nonessential procedures has prevented the diagnosis of life-threatening illnesses, writes a former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center. Life-threatening brain tumors and aneurysms go undetected. Deaths from drug abuse due to economic desperation and isolation may already be increasing, as data from Ohio suggests. The UN predicts tens of millions more lives around the world due to extreme poverty and hundreds of thousands of child deaths.

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Unemployment in the United States is reaching depression levels. The little businessmen who risked their savings and their credit in the hope of creating a successful business saw their efforts destroyed. Up to a third of local businesses may never reopen. Damage to supply chains is getting worse day by day. Farmers plow under cabbage and strawberries, pour milk and destroy eggs because they have lost their markets. It is almost impossible to plan future production with such depressed demand. Retail sales posted their largest monthly decline ever in March. Department stores and local newspapers can become relics.

Many cultural institutions, small theaters, regional orchestras and opera companies will never get up again. The demand for progressive causes such as public transit and dense multi-unit housing will evaporate longer than the fear is fueled. However, the rhetoric of safetyism is tireless. The vast majority of people want to feel safe, a doctor told MSNBC host Stephanie Ruhle on April 23. I hope people will turn to public health officials and scientists to [safety] strategies. These same authorities distributed positive reinforcements to maintain the conformity of the population. The Americans have done such a great job of social distancing, said Dr. Deborah Birx, director of the White House Coronavirus task force, so we don’t want to jeopardize their efforts with a hasty reopening, she said. added.

Of course, a revolt is brewing against the idea that perfect security is the prerequisite for social and economic life. Even residents of blue states are rubbing shoulders with them, causing sniffy reprimands from their masters of public health. But enough people have embraced fear to destroy the necessary side of the demand for an economic recovery. Locks signal that it is not safe to shop, travel, or socialize a message that in most places is false. The prohibitions must be lifted, while protection efforts intensely target vulnerable older adults. As a harbinger of liberation, any true public health expert would tell these Central Park joggers and solo drivers in their cars to rip their masks and breathe freely.

Heather Mac Donald is the Thomas W. Smith Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and the author of The Diversity Delusion.

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