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There are reasons for optimism as the UK approaches zero Corona 19 deaths | Corona virus

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The UK’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has given time to celebrate, but the day when deaths from the disease hit zero will definitely be a toast. That day will not be far. On Tuesday, the UK reported four Covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test. There was only one on Monday. The painful blockade in the face of more infectious strains and the rapid release of effective vaccines has proven its worth. There are good reasons to feel optimistic over the coming months.

No one will forget the cruel winter. In January alone, the UK reported nearly 32,000 Covid deaths, which is a terrible count directly linked to being shut down too late. In April, the death toll fell to 753. Scientists advising the government this month expect fewer deaths. It’s worth remembering that it’s been over nine months since the UK last reported COVID-19 deaths. People will continue to die from Covid, but you’ll see more in May and that number could increase again once restrictions on indoor blending are lifted.

A day doesn’t become a meaningful milestone. More importantly, reaching a consistently low daily mortality rate, which is a goal achieved through a combination of factors. At the beginning of the year, the blockade broke the contagious chain and reduced the number of people who, on average, spread the disease by infected people. When R fell below 1, the epidemic began to decline. For example, when R reached 0.8, the number of viruses decreased, with only 80 more viruses per 100 cases. Fewer infections inevitably resulted in fewer deaths.

However, as the vaccination program was implemented, the weight of the heavy burden increased. Best of all, these initial vaccinations provide those who are most vulnerable to those who are most likely to die from Covid, an immune defense against the virus. Second, the injection interferes with the spread of the disease, pushing R further down. Although the vaccinated person is infected and some may be infected, the amount of virus in the respiratory system is low, making it less likely to become infected.

The NHS vaccination program is designed to protect the people most at risk as quickly as possible. This decision was key especially in terms of simplicity. Jabs took first place in the group belonging to the top 9 priority groups created by the Vaccinations and Vaccination Joint Committee. This includes those who are clinically extremely vulnerable or have an underlying condition (for example, everyone over 50) who use drugs that suppress the immune system. These 32 million people make up 99% of Covid deaths.

Prior to the vaccine’s release, public health authorities had only clinical trial data. They weren’t sure how effective the shot would be in the real world. The answer has become clearer as the recent data overflows. The first good news came in the form of vaccine intake rates. More than 95% of the people over 50 have had at least one injection, which is much better than many scientists hope.

Next came the findings of the vaccine’s impressive impact. ONS found that only some of the patients with Covid were hospitalized for at least 3 weeks after injection. It takes 2-3 weeks for the body to develop a good immune response. According to a study from Scottish Public Health, hospital admission rates fell sharply over a month after a single dose. More positive news came from the UK Public Health Department about the vaccine’s ability to curb the spread of the disease. While those who are not vaccinated infect about 10% at home, the institution estimates that the risk will be reduced by almost half if the original case is vaccinated.

An outbreak model, submitted to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency Sage in March (Sage), shows that daily Covid deaths can reach nearly zero in May and June and then increase again in July and August. How many can you catch. The technique is to immunize a larger population to contain the increase in infections as restrictions are eased. So far, this balancing action seems to work. Phases 1 and 2 of the roadmap appear to have caused the case to stagnate without restarting.

Now the urgent question is what arises after phases 3 and 4 of the roadmap scheduled for May 17 and June 21, respectively. Mass vaccinations of the elderly and vulnerable people will reduce deaths, but not everyone will be protected because the vaccine is not 100% effective. While many young people will not be fully vaccinated by the end of the year, it is important to have a high guarantee at these ages to protect younger people from danger, as well as to reduce the chances of getting infected by more vulnerable people at these ages. Severe illness or debilitating effects of long-term Covid.

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