International
For American citizens, improbable limits
Americans should expect to see their internal travel restricted coronavirus? Unlikely, say medical and emergency planning experts.
Although travel restrictions, such as those imposed by the Trump administration last month on international travelers entering the United States from certain countries, can slow the spread of an infectious disease, they cannot not stop it.
"I think it's out of the bag," said Stephen Gluckman, director of global medicine at the University of Pennsylvania.
Vice President Mike Pence told reporters on Wednesday that travel to the United States was out of the question.
Earlier in the epidemic, U.S. authorities restricted entry to China, where the disease originates and still has the most cases of coronavirus, but where the rate of infection is slowing. The number of cases continues to increase in South Korea, Iran and Italy, and the coronavirus is spreading in Europe and the United States.
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On Wednesday, a California man became the first coronavirus-related death in the state. He was reportedly exposed to the virus during a cruise last month. Also on Wednesday, a medical monitor who worked at Los Angeles International Airport tested positive for coronavirus. Her last shift at LAX was February 21 and her symptoms started to appear a week later.
Conclusion: the virus is difficult for authorities to detect, since infected people may have no symptoms for a week or two, or never develop symptoms. The California cases demonstrate the limited effectiveness of travel restrictions that public health officials have long understood.
A study by the World Health Organization in 2014 Restrictions on domestic travel to the United States would delay the spread of a serious flu epidemic by two to three weeks.
In 2006, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted the limited effect of restrictions on international travel, 1.1 million people entering the United States. borders a typical day.
"Our border measures could provide an opportunity to slow the spread of a pandemic in the United States, but are unlikely to prevent it," then wrote the CDC in a report. "The volume of traffic and the difficulty of developing screening protocols to detect influenza-like illness poses significant challenges."
Gluckman said it may be possible to further slow the spread by isolating people in areas with large clusters of infections, as authorities in the worst affected areas have done. ; Italy and China. Washington State has the highest number of cases in the country, with 79 as of Friday, according to the state health department.
The ultimate solution, however, could be months away.
"What will stop it is a vaccine," said Gluckman.
Health officials:Coronavirus vaccine is at least a year away
Reduce travel
Private employers, universities and government agencies have already taken action on their own.
Nationally, companies are increasingly asking their employees to avoid non-essential travel or large gatherings such as conferences. Universities canceled their study abroad programs in the affected countries and asked students and professors to return home. Even the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention itself cancels non-essential employee travel and encourages workers to telecommute.
Airlines have cut their international and domestic flight schedules as travelers have canceled or changed their plans. Airlines, hotels and cruise lines have waived some modification fees in response to the epidemic.
Southwest's largest national airline, Southwest, experienced "a very sharp and precipitous drop in bookings" over the past week, a decline that continues daily, said CEO Gary Kelly in an interview with CNBC Thursday. like feeling. "
Kelly noted significant competition on flights United Airlines announced on Wednesday to deal with weak travel demand and said Southwest would consider cutting some flights if the decline in bookings continues. In addition to United, JetBlue Airways has announced plans to reduce flight capacity by 5%.
International Air Transport Association forecasts global airline revenue losses of $ 63 billion to $ 113 billion in 2020. This would place airlines in the most precarious position they have found since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. In the United States only, industry lost $ 40 billion from 2001 to 2005.
Air traffic did not return to levels before September 11 until July 2004, according to the US Department of Transportation, and the industry was only profitable again in 2006.
State and local agencies take the lead
Brock Long, who headed the Federal Emergency Management Agency from 2017 to 2019 and is now executive director of Hagerty Consulting, said that social distancing should become widespread.
"The Americans must think about how they will manage a shelter there for a few weeks if the government asks them to do it," he said.
Long said the federal government would likely provide a supporting role for state and local officials, but would leave them with a lot of decisions. For example, the governors of Florida, Washington, California, Maryland and Indiana have declared a state of emergency. It has long been said that other states will do the same, as well as cities and counties.
"We need to prepare for many more emergencies in the next two weeks," said Long.
Gluckman said he would advise older Americans and those with underlying health conditions to avoid traveling. But, he said, people can still be sick if they don't travel.
For example, the 1918 flu pandemic took place in a world before commercial aviation, interstate highways and advanced medicine. The epidemic has killed 50 million people worldwide, including 675,000 Americans.
"Despite the fact that there weren't as many trips," said Gluckman, "the disease has spread rapidly around the world."
Contributor: Dawn Gilbertson and David Jackson, USA TODAY
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