What is “endemic”? Will you get there with COVID-19?

Austin (Nexstar) — After the weekend and summer COVID-19 surges at Texas-sized events seemed to change, many wondered if the worst was really behind us. I am.

Most epidemiologists will say it is difficult to predict.

Dr. Jennifer Schford, Texas’s chief epidemiologist, said the current trends are promising for Lone Star, at least for now.

“One of the expectations is that the number of cases and hospitalizations will skyrocket just because this last variant, the Delta variant, was highly contagious,” she said. .. “So we expected it to burn out the population soon, that’s exactly what happened, but we’re happy to see fewer cases with hospitalizations a little earlier than in the last wave. increase.”

The concept of herd immunity is out of reach, as about 59% of Americans are fully vaccinated and still less than 50% in many states. For comparison, President Joe Biden’s initial vaccination goal was to shoot at least 75% of Americans’ arms by July 4. Herd immunity is estimated to be somewhere in 75% to 85% of the community.

Dr. John Carlo is a Physician in the Dallas area who is also a member of the Texas Medical Association COVID-19 Task Force. He said the problem with the herd immunity benchmark is that it must be a global goal because it is a pandemic rather than a pandemic.

“Unfortunately, we don’t have to be in many places around the world, so there is always a risk that new infections will return to the community, as well as new variants and new mutations. It circulates freely in other areas, “Carlo said.

Worldwide, only 35.5% of the population is fully vaccinated. Spain, for example, has nearly 78% of its population vaccinated and is one of the highest. Compare with Bangladesh, where about 11% of citizens are fully vaccinated.

Many people are asking, “Will this pandemic be endemic?” Endemic is an indelible disease that is regularly seen in certain areas and populations.

Again, most epidemiologists will tell you: it’s hard to predict.

Carlo does not like to use the term “endemic” to describe where the virus can go. Because it implies our society. Maybe … It’s okay to live with this forever. He said the biggest difference between COVID-19 and the flu season is its mortality rate.

“The proportion of people who have a really serious illness due to a coronavirus infection is much higher than in the most severe flu season,” he said. “Therefore, I don’t want to rely on something like the current pattern of seasonal flu to say what this virus can do.”

The second major difference is that influenza strains have existed for centuries and SARS-CoV-2 is still new. However, Schford does not rule out the possibility of COVID-19 becoming a seasonal disease.

“What we’ve seen in previous flu epidemics is that a pandemic occurs, which affects most of the world, and the population will get some kind of immunity to it. , It continues to circulate as a flu season virus, but it does not have the same lethality, or it does not kill many people during the subsequent flu season cycle of the virus, “she said. ..

Shuford and Carlo are a little disagreeable about what the future holds for this virus, but currently agree on the tools we have at our disposal. It’s not new. It is vaccination.

“As long as we have pockets of uninfected or unvaccinated people, we can see small or large outbreaks throughout the state,” Shuford said. “All the really bad things we want to avoid that lead to hospitalization and death.”

Given that schools are one of the most densely populated social environments in society, they want vaccine approval for children to be a game changer.

“If we can make our children safe to go to school, that’s really a stabilizing effect,” Carlo said.

Neither recommends antibody treatments instead of vaccines, but says that such antiviral treatments are also an important tool for defeating this pandemic.