If less vaping means more smoking, it’s not a public health victory

Cigarette sales in the United States Rose According to, last year was the first time in 20 years data Published by the Federal Trade Commission this week. The 0.4% increase may be due, at least in part, to smokers hoarding cigarettes during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was consistent with reduced use of e-cigarettes by teens and adults. Public health by increasing tobacco consumption.

In 2020, despite increased cigarette purchases, the proportion of adults who smoked appears to have continued the long decline that began in the 1960s. The prevalence of “current smoking” among Americans over the age of 18 was about 13 percent last year. Provisional number From the National Health Interview Survey 14 percent 2019 and 40% or more According to the same survey, the prevalence of “current e-cigarette use” in adults is 4.5 percent In 2019 it will be less than 4% in 2020.

NS Monitoring future researchIn contrast, high school smoking rates last month were found to have risen from 5.7% in 2019 to 7.5% in 2020 and 32% last year. This surge was consistent with the third consecutive decline in vaping. The year-long increase was a significant departure from the declining trend of adolescent smoking that began in the late 1990s. Since 1997, when 36.5% of 12th graders said they smoked last month, the rate has declined or stabilized each year, except in 2004, when it rose 2.4% before resuming the downward trend. Was there.

Although one year’s data should not be given much weight, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that vaping has replaced smoking among teens. Using data from several surveys, 2018 study In the journal Tobacco regulation Decrease in adolescent smoking acceleration As vaping becomes more common. NS 2021 study of Journal of American Medical Association Evidence found that flavored e-cigarettes were banned in San Francisco 2018 Boost Smoking by teens and young adults.What that means policy By making e-cigarettes less attractive, more expensive, or more difficult to obtain, with the aim of preventing minors from inhaling vapors, on the contrary. Much more dangerous product.

Like monitoring future research National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) found that as adolescent vaping increased, adolescent smoking continued to decline. For example, between 2016 and 2019, high school e-cigarette penetration increased from 11.3% to 27.5% in the past month, and smoking prevalence in the past month decreased from 8% to 5.8%. .. The rate of vapor inhalation dropped to 19.6 percent in 2020 and 11.3 percent in 2021. That’s a 59 percent drop over two years. Smoking rates fell to 4.6% in 2020, but 2021 figures have not yet been released.

The fact that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which oversees NYTS, chose to publish 2021 e-cigarette data first made its determination to maintain public vigilance for adolescent vaporization. It reflects. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Quote Electronic cigarette number as its justification Strict regulations Former smokers have a bias towards e-liquid flavors in the vaping industry Overwhelmingly prefer..Both institutions Rapid decrease Use of e-cigarettes by teens. Also, the CDC has not yet shown the remaining results of NYTS, so it is unclear whether the decline was consistent with increased smoking in adolescence. This will further question the policy wisdom endorsed by the CDC and FDA.

In addition to legal restrictions, these policies include: Promotion It is intentionally Big difference Between the health risks posed by vaporization and the health risks posed by smoking. FDA Admit Possibility to reduce the harm of e-cigarettes, its Alert message For teens, vaping actually means more dangerous than smoking.For years, activists and civil servants Minimize, ignore, Also Deny The potentially life-saving benefits of switching from smoking to vaping. As a result, Americans are becoming more and more confused about the relative dangers of the two habits.

According to 2019, between 2012 and 2017 analysis Of the results of the two national surveys, the percentage of respondents who correctly recognized e-cigarettes as less dangerous than traditional flammable types increased from 51% to 35% in one survey and in the other. It dropped from 39% to 34%. On the other hand, the percentage of people who mistakenly thought that inhaling vapors was as dangerous as smoking increased from 46% to 56% and from 12% to 36%, respectively. vaping more More dangerous than smoking tripled in both studies, with one reaching nearly 10% and the other more than 4%.

NS Subsequent investigation Proposed False alarm CDC on a series of lung injuries caused by THC vapes in the black market Irresponsibly encouraged The connection of the public with nicotine products has caused further confusion. Two Morning Consult polls show that the percentage of Americans who understand that smoking is less dangerous than smoking was 14 points between June 2018 and September 2019. It turned out that it decreased.

Scaring people from vaping by exaggerating its danger is not simply dishonest and unethical. It is also counterproductive from a public health perspective. If the resulting reduction in e-cigarette use leads to more smoking than otherwise, the results are tobacco-related morbidity and mortality, as opposed to what the CDC and FDA are likely to achieve. The rate will be higher.

Jacob Sullum reason..This article first appeared Reason.com..