Potential Icelandic volcano: Industry at risk of unrest?

Over the past two days, Iceland has been hit by more than 7,000 earthquakes, which has led to a possible eruption of a major volcano in the country. Will this put flight operations at risk of turbulence?

The Icelandic Met Office has been tracking seismic activity since July 4, with over 480 earthquakes on July 6 alone.

These earthquakes have been limited in nature so far, but the records “strongly indicate that magma is migrating toward the surface.”

What does the Icelandic Met Office say about the potential volcano? David Karna, CC BY 1.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/1.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The Met Office in Iceland issued two updates over the course of July 7, one describing the seismic movements of the day, as well as the more than 7,000 recorded since July 4.

“Shortly before midnight on July 6, an earthquake sequence began near Elde Island on the Reykjanes ridge, about 10 km southwest of the Reykjanes Peninsula.”

“At 15:00 today (July 7), more than 480 earthquakes have been measured there. 38 earthquakes have been analyzed and manually checked.”

“Ten earthquakes larger than 3 and six earthquakes larger than 4 occurred, the largest of which was 4.5 on the Richter scale at 5:06 this morning.”

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“Earthquake sequences in this area are not rare, but this current activity is unusually high. In view of this, the flying color code of the Eldey volcanic system will be changed to yellow.”

In total since July 4, this is what Iceland’s Met Office has said regarding a possible volcanic eruption in the country:

“Since the beginning of the seismic swarm on the Reykjanes Peninsula on July 4, 7,000 earthquakes have been recorded in the area between Fagradalsvall and Keeler.”

“Nearly 300 earthquakes have been manually screened. This activity is caused by a new intrusion of a dike in the area, specifically between Fagradalsvial and Keeler, with its epicenter believed to be between Lytli-Hertur and Lytli-Kelir.”

“A total of 17 earthquakes greater than 4 and 50 events greater than 3 were recorded. The largest earthquake occurred at 8:21 UTC on July 5 and was 4.8.”

“The largest earthquakes are widely felt in the southwest region, from Hela to the east and towards the Snæfellsnes peninsula in the north.”

“This activity is expected to continue, but seismic activity has decreased somewhat near the dam.”

“Seismic activity continued in the area between Keilir and Fagradalsfjall, which is being interpreted as triggering events.”

Is the airline industry in danger from this? Mokslo Sriuba, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

“This activity is expected to continue, but seismic activity has decreased somewhat near the dam.”

This is an important point to make at this point in time.

With the reduction in seismic activity it could very well be that an eruption might not happen, but with the warnings put out by the Met Office of Iceland for a possible eruption, this would be something to look out for.

Iceland has had its fair share of volcanic-based activity over the past 20 years, the most significant of which was at Grímsvötn, which caused a major disruption to air travel in northwestern parts of Europe in May 2011.

Eyjafjallajökull was the last to occur in April 2010, which required the closure of airspace over many parts of Europe as well.

Finally, another occurred in Holuhraun, where the eruption began on August 29, 2014, and ended in February 2015, affecting flights, but not as much as Grímsvötn & Eyjafjallajökull.

With so many earthquakes recorded in this latest seismic activity, if a volcano erupts in Iceland, similar levels of disruption could result in the aviation industry.

As it is: flights operating normally out of Keflavik… Data provided by RadarBox.com.

At the time of writing, planes were arriving at Keflavik International Airport, the country’s main airport, relatively well, according to data from RadarBox.

However, it will be interesting to watch the next few days to see if this volcano erupts in Iceland, and also to see what kind of disruption it might cause across Europe if it did.

This is a developing story. More to follow in due course.

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