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Japan issues first-ever major earthquake warning: What does it mean? | Explained News

Japan issues first-ever major earthquake warning: What does it mean? | Explained News

 


After a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck southern Japan on Thursday, the country's meteorological agency issued its first-ever “major earthquake warning.”

The warning said the possibility of strong quakes and large tsunamis was higher than usual in the Nankai Trough, a subduction zone (an area where tectonic plates collide with each other and one heavier one slides beneath the other) along Japan's southwestern Pacific coast.

However, this does not mean that a major earthquake will definitely occur within a specific period, according to the warning.

What is the Nankai Basin?

The Nankai Trough is an underwater subduction zone (about 900 km long) where the Eurasian Plate collides with the Philippine Sea Plate, pushing the latter beneath the former and into the Earth's mantle. This creates a buildup of tectonic stresses that can cause a massive earthquake – one with a magnitude greater than 8 on the Richter scale.

According to a 2023 study titled “A High Probability of Successive Nankai-Type Earthquakes,” published in Nature, the basin produces large earthquakes about every 100 to 150 years. These quakes typically come in pairs, with the second often occurring within the next two years—the most recent “double” quakes occurred in 1944 and 1946.

Thursday's 7.1-magnitude quake struck in or near the Nankai Trough, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. As a result, experts fear the next tremor along the basin could be devastating.

When might the next major earthquake occur along the Nankai Trough?

In January 2022, the Japan Earthquake Research Committee said the probability of a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8-9 along the basin was about 70% within the next 30 years.

Such a large earthquake could send tremors from central Shizuoka – about 150 kilometers south of Tokyo – to southwest Miyazaki, Reuters reported.

Tsunami waves up to 98 feet high are expected to hit Japan's Pacific coast within minutes after the quake.

A 2013 government report concluded that a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough could affect an area covering about a third of Japan's land area and home to about half of the country's more than 120 million people, according to a report in Nikkei Asia.

Economic damage from the disaster could reach $1.50 trillion, or more than a third of Japan's annual GDP.

But can earthquakes be predicted?

No, accurate earthquake prediction requires a prior signal from within the Earth that a major earthquake is on its way. The signal must come just before major earthquakes so that it does not indicate every small movement within the Earth's surface. Currently, there is no equipment to find such prior signals.

Robert Geller, emeritus professor of seismology at the University of Tokyo, told the BBC that the warning issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency on Thursday was just a warning, not a prediction – and had nothing to do with science. The warning asked residents to prepare, review evacuation routes and consider possible future warnings.

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