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UK bond markets are in turmoil as the Budget changes interest rate calculations.
Britain's borrowing costs are rising again as markets react to Prime Minister Rachel Reeves' proposal to increase government borrowing by $32 billion a year. This morning, 2-year and 10-year gold bond yields rose about 3 basis points, marking their 10th straight day of gains since 2006.
In early trading, UK bond yields reached their highest level this year, with the benchmark 10-year gold bond yielding 4.526% in global trading. The level matched Thursday's highest since Reeves' budget announcement, which led investors to expect the Bank of England to slow its rate cuts. Afterwards, the rate of return slightly retreated to 4.456%.
The bond market has been under scrutiny since Reeves' budget announcement included significant borrowing along with tax increases of about $40 billion. But while there has been a notable reaction in the UK government bond market, also known as gilts, it has yet to compare to the chaos caused by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget for 2022.
Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Shares rise as Reeves tries to calm bond markets
This Friday, Moodys published its budget analysis, warning of potential risks associated with Reeves' fiscal plan, describing increased borrowing as an additional challenge to the management of Britain's public finances.
The rating agency said higher borrowings could make it more expensive to issue debt, especially given Reeves's revisions to Britain's fiscal rules, which limit room for error in the face of unexpected economic shocks.
Moody's said the Budget aims to stimulate everyday spending and government investment, but does little to improve prospects for UK economic growth, which is expected to average just 1.7% from 2025 to 2027. The agency pointed out structural problems. In order to achieve sustainable growth, problems such as increased labor market inactivity and stagnant productivity must be addressed.
In response to the recent gold bond sale, which pushed borrowing costs to their highest level this year, Reeves doubled down on the government's commitment to economic and financial stability. She said in a Bloomberg TV interview that strong fiscal rules are in place, promising significant fiscal soundness.
Read more: Britain's top budget topics – from mortgages and wages to pensions
Moody's also warned that markets remain sensitive to mistakes in UK policy, a sentiment echoed in light of past financial turmoil. They noted that frequent changes in the UK's fiscal system had undermined its effectiveness as a reliable basis for policy. Nonetheless, Reevess' move to a more rigorous three-year timeline to meet her revised financial goals was seen as a step toward strengthening the credibility of her approach.
The story continues
Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, said: Reeves insisted the government's investment was done while boosting UK growth and restoring economic stability, but markets were clearly skeptical.
“Bond markets have been spooked by increased borrowing. The 10-year gold yield rose 30 basis points for the week to 4.5%, the highest in almost a year and close to levels since the 2019 Truss mini-budget sell-off. September 2022 Markets are clearly concerned that Labor's massive borrowing plan will increase bond issuance and keep interest rates higher for longer, pushing up mortgage rates and weighing on UK growth.
Read more: Budget impact on UK interest rates
Reeves outlined his clear economic plan in a recent fall statement, asserting that the goal is to balance the current budget within three years and provide the investments needed to spur growth while reducing debt.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Darren Jones said the UK was seeing a normal market reaction to the budget after PTSD. [post traumatic stress disorder] Truss and Kwartengs from the chaos after the 2022 mini-budget.
He told Sky News: A lot of new information about the economy and the nation's finances has been presented to Congress, and it is normal for markets to react.
I think we all got PTSD from Liz Truss and let's compare two different scenarios. Because the reasons are very different. So, as we saw under Liz Truss, they fired the permanent secretary and ignored the independent Office for Budget Accountability.
They announced $45 billion in unfunded tax cuts and said this is just the beginning. And the market went crazy and we all know what happened. It's completely different than it is now.
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