What does President Trump’s election mean for the UK?

Today, hiding inside the Capitol to escape the chilly January cold, Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States. The president is feeling good about moving forward after hosting a rally for his supporters on Sunday, promising to lower inflation, bring jobs back to America and impose tariffs on competitors around the world. But while Trump may be sheltered from the cold today, what will happen to the UK economy when exposed to an increasingly protectionist America?

What did Trump say about tariffs?

Before the presidential election, President Trump promised to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese products and up to a 20% tariff on products from other countries. But despite labeling himself the Tariff Man, Trump's other promises, such as lowering inflation, will be difficult to achieve with such policies. That's because U.S. companies will almost certainly have to raise prices for domestic customers to cover the additional import costs. In other words, the U.S. economy does not have the ability to completely isolate itself from global supply chains.

Recently, President Trump pledged to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports on his first day in office, often lamenting the latter as a backdoor for Chinese goods to enter U.S. markets. Elsewhere, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned that Germany could become a key target of Trump-style tariffs on the European Union. Trump's first presidency demonstrated his distaste for the EU, and during the 2024 campaign he claimed: [EU] You will have to pay a big price.

What has the UK government said about Trump's tariff threats?

Darren Jones (Treasury Secretary) has publicly stated that he does not believe President Trump will impose tariffs on British products. But that doesn't mean the government isn't preparing for such an eventuality. Jonathan Reynolds, the Secretary of State for Economic Affairs and Trade, expressed concern about the potential impact of tariffs given the highly globally oriented nature of the economy. That said, concerns are being felt across global markets that reactionary reciprocal tariffs could lead to inflation across international supply chains. The UK currently exports approximately $60 billion worth of goods to the US, accounting for 15.4% of total goods exports.

On Friday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer signaled his intention to open negotiations with the United States for a UK-US trade deal, despite previous concerns about the country's low standards for agricultural products such as chlorinated chicken.

What Happened During Trump's Last Presidency?

Trump is famous for his unpredictability, and the next four years are likely to be erratic due to the difficult challenge of appeasing American consumers and his own protectionist instincts. During the first 15 months of President Trump's first term, tariffs were imposed on only 4.1% of U.S. imports. He initially focused on China before extending tariffs to the EU, particularly imposing tariffs on British exports of steel and aluminum.

When the first Trump-style tariffs were imposed on the UK, the UK was still a member of the EU and therefore acted as part of a trading bloc that introduced retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of US goods. After leaving the EU, Liz Truss (then Secretary of International Trade) continued her policy of retaliatory tariffs on American products. President Trump has made good on his first presidential campaign promise to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods, but his other proposal that he could enact a blanket 10% tariff on all imports would instead focus on specific products such as steel and aluminum. I got it right.

How should Britain respond to Trump?

To mitigate the threat of an erratic president who clearly sees trade as a negotiating tool, the UK must prioritize trade with its largest and closest trading partners. The UK exported $185 billion worth of goods to the EU in 2023, more than three times the amount exported to the US. Overall, EU trade accounts for 42% of all UK exports of goods and services, and with the EU likely to be subject to a similar tariff regime (if not stricter) to the UK, President Trump has called for closer cooperation between the UK and the EU. Incentives.

Lord Kim Darroch, former British Ambassador to the US and Member of the UK Trade and Business Committee: The US is a valuable ally of the UK, but by definition the government cannot prioritize trade with both the US and the EU – a strategy that risks taking the worst possible turn. . all over the world. Recent history suggests that Trump responds to strength and that there is strength in numbers. We are better off working with our European allies to work with the incoming U.S. administration.

The public also shares the belief that the UK's trade priorities should be with the EU and not the US. The poll of more than 4,000 people carried out by YouGov on behalf of Best for Britain found that 44% of Britons believe the UK's economic future depends on the EU, while only 19% favor prioritizing trade with the US. It was only %. As the world prepares for four years of MAGA fever and all the uncertainty that will result from the election of President Trump, it is time to work together with our closest and most trusted ally: the European Union.

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