A ‘serious’ political earthquake in New Jersey has national Democrats watching closely. No one saw it coming.

Another political earthquake rocked New Jersey politics Thursday night — and one with national implications.

An already crowded special Democratic primary to fill Gov. Mickey Sherrill’s old seat in the U.S. House of Representatives has turned into a surprising election. As of Friday morning, the race between former U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski and progressive advocate Analilia Mejia remained very close.

Although the election was widely viewed as unpredictable, many viewed Malinowski as the favorite among 11 candidates vying for the Democratic nomination in North Jersey’s 11th District. The relatively mainstream Democrat is seeking to return to Congress after being ousted four years ago in a different district.

The other two candidates — former Gov. Tahisha Way and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill — had deep pockets and party support. Way was former Gov. Phil Murphy’s second-in-command, and Gill had Murphy’s endorsement. However, both were far behind Malinowski and Mejia, with 91% of the votes counted.

Mejia, a grassroots organization that helped run Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential bid in the state, was expected to be among the top four candidates, but with a funding disadvantage, name recognition and a more left-leaning platform, her performance was still a surprise in the largely suburban district. The 11th is spread across parts of Essex, Morris and Passaic counties — an area that was previously red and has become progressively bluer in recent years.

“Insiders have been smoked,” said Matt Hill, a political science professor at Seton Hall University in South Orange, part of the district. “Tom Malinowski is an outsider to the district and Analilia Mejia is the party’s outsider left wing. The insiders, Tanesha Way and Brendan Gill, appear to have failed.

“It’s been a tough day for establishment Democrats.”

New Jersey Special Election – 11th Congressional District

The Democratic primary for New Jersey Gov. Mickey Sherrill’s old House seat is very close to being decided

The special primary was unusually crowded, with 11 Democrats vying for the open U.S. House seat being vacated by Gov. Mickey Sherrill.

Many media outlets and political forecasters even declared the race for Malinowski about an hour after polls closed after he jumped out to a healthy lead in early voting. Then, in rare cases, they dropped their calls after a few hours.

The Associated Press did not call the race until 11:39 a.m. Friday. Mejia leads Malinowski by a slim margin of 488 votes.

But she appeared to declare victory on Friday just before 1 a.m., saying in a social media video that she was “excited to say we had a people power victory.”

“Here’s the bottom line: Every vote should count,” Mejia said during a media availability Friday morning in Montclair. “This is the other truth: we left everything on the ground.”

Malinowski has not conceded yet. Campaign manager Kylie Haberstroh told NJ Advance Media Friday morning that he did not declare victory “because we knew a significant number” of ballots were still outstanding.

“Every vote deserves to be counted,” Haberstroh said.

The winner of the general election scheduled for April will face off against Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, who ran unopposed for the GOP endorsement. Conventional wisdom holds that the Democratic nominee is the favorite because of the district’s blue slant.

A Mejia victory would be a stunning upset, and the possibility is garnering national attention. It raises the question of whether this is the latest Mamdani-sized example of how the progressive wing of the Democratic Party has risen in the era of pushback against Donald Trump. These exciting events have added more uncertainty to the election cycle in which Democrats will attempt to regain control of Congress in the midterm elections for Trump.

“What Analelia did is historic,” said Antoinette Miles, director of the Working Families Party in New Jersey, where Mejia once worked. “This sends a message not just in New Jersey, but across the country, that voters want something different,” he added.

The race is also another sign of major cracks in Jersey’s famously machine-oriented politics, driven for decades by a now-defunct primary ballot system that helped keep incumbents and party leaders in power.

“What happens at NJ-11 tonight seems momentous,” Steve Kornacki, an NBC political analyst and former New Jersey political correspondent, wrote on X.

He continued: “The country has long been dominated by a renegade political culture, particularly on the Democratic side, but there have been unrest in the past few years with the party’s increasingly professional and activist class base revolting.”

The first big blow to New Jersey’s establishment Democrats came two years ago when then-Congressman Andy Kim launched an insurgent bid to replace indicted Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez.

The Democratic primary pitted Kim against then-First Lady Tammy Murphy. The governor’s wife was supported by many top Democrats, had the power of her husband’s office and the benefit of the “district line” — a unique and controversial system in Jersey politics in which candidates supported by the party get a primary ballot choice.

But Kim became a progressive darling and objected to the regime he said Menendez built and protected. He successfully sued to remove the “line” ballot design. Shortly before the decision was made, Tammy Murphy dropped out of the race, and Kim not only won the Senate seat, but cemented himself as a rising blue star.

A similar movement occurred across the Hudson River last year, as Zahran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, surprisingly became mayor of New York City at the expense of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

There were also partisan overtones in New Jersey’s governor’s race last year, where Newark Mayor Ras Baraka finished a surprising second behind Sherrill, a more moderate Democrat, in the primary.

In Thursday’s race, Malinowski was endorsed by the county party in Morris, Way was endorsed by the county party in Passaic, and Gill in Essex. Mejia had no support from the province.

Politicians stress that the shock result is not as simple as liberals versus the establishment, because Malinowski also has progressive credentials — including an endorsement of Kim — and has sometimes clashed with party leaders. This was also a special election in a congressional district on a cold February day when the Jersey political world was largely to itself.

After all, Sherrill — lauded for her strong resume and appeal to a wide range of voters — easily won the Democratic nomination for governor last year over Baraka.

The statewide race would have been much tougher for progressives, according to Micah Rasmussen, director of the Ribovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University and former press secretary for former Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey.

However, Rasmussen said, “The machine is in trouble.”

“You’ve lost the ability to screen and narrow down 11 candidates, and when that happens, you can get surprising and unexpected results,” he added.

The demise of the district line means that “voters who already showed up have to decide now,” Rasmussen said. “Voters will respond to the moment in front of them, not necessarily the long-term vision of maintaining a party’s majority status.”

Hill noted there was also a strong turnout. Mejia said her team has made tens of thousands of phone calls and knocked on doors.

“More Democrats voted in this short, weird, weather-affected primary on Thursday than in the 2024 primary,” said Hill, the Seton Hall professor. “That means Democrats are very much engaged.”

Mejia — who has been endorsed by Sanders and other progressive members of Congress, including U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren — may have captured support from left-leaning voters while more moderate candidates split the vote.

“That was an unusual rift in New Jersey politics, wasn’t it?” Miles said. “Because the progressives were united in this race, and brought all of our manpower to the field, that was a key part of moving this forward.”

Patrick Murray, a veteran pollster who runs StimSight Research, said there was “an underestimation of Mejia, driven in large part by a misunderstanding of Democratic primary voters in the special election.”

“There is a feeling that Democrats who live in Republican areas are more moderate, when the opposite is true,” he added. “They tend to be more progressive, because they live in Republican areas.”

He stressed that Democratic voters may have seen Mejia as a “Trump fighter.”

“It’s not about liberals and moderates,” Murray said. “It’s about confronting Trump authentically. And that’s what won the day here.”

Anolia Mejia vs. Tom Malinowski

Will Trump now bring down moderate Democrats as well? New Jersey’s very tight election had one looming factor.

The 11-seat special Democratic primary for Gov. Mickey Sherrill’s old seat in the U.S. House of Representatives has not yet been called. But did President Donald Trump play a role?

Increased interest in ICE has also been a “huge and motivating” factor, Rasmussen said. People in the area have seen ICE raids taking place in their backyard, like in Morristown, according to Miles.

Then there is the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has poured about $2 million into the race to attack Malinowski through its United Democratic Project. Although it appears that AIPAC was trying to boost Way, it may have inadvertently elevated Mejia, who is arguably more liberal than Malinowski.

“The outcome in NJ-11 was a predictable possibility, and our focus remains on who will serve the next full term in Congress,” a spokesperson for the group said Friday morning. “The UDP will closely monitor dozens of primary races, including the June 11 New Jersey primary, to help ensure pro-Israel candidates are elected to Congress.”

Regardless, Mejia on Friday accused the Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) of using “frankly disgusting tactics” in terms of “misinformation and flooding the region” to attack Malinowski.

Regardless of whether Mejia or Malinowski beats Hathaway in April, the winner will only serve the final months of Sherrill’s unexpired term. There will be another primary in June, and a general election in November for a full two-year term in the House of Representatives. The question is whether June’s Democratic battle will be another hotly contested battle — especially if the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) gets involved again.

One insider summed it up Thursday this way: “Analelia has outsmarted everyone, outdone everyone, and driven the stake through the organization.

“I don’t know what it means for the general, but the Democratic establishment has just been put on notice. They have sent a clear message that the party wants change.”

Read the original article on NJ.com. Add NJ.com as a preferred source by clicking here.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos