Politics
Aegean tensions and Ankara obsessions
Athens is waiting to see what Turkey will do with the maritime zones bill it is reportedly drafting, while also believing that a further escalation of tensions in the Aegean Sea is likely this summer. The Turkish side finds all kinds of excuses to justify the current escalation, both in words and in deeds. For example, he claims to have had to react to Greek initiatives such as the deployment of a battery of Patriot missiles on the island of Karpathos.
There is, however, also an element of urgency on Ankara’s part. A Turkish analyst with extensive knowledge of Greek-Turkish affairs says Turkey has been “waiting for years for an agreement to be reached on the Aegean Sea and watching time pass without progress.” He deliberately rejects the fact that Ankara continues to add new claims from time to time.
Ankara’s haste can also be explained by something else. Turkey has a window of about two years before losing the tactical advantage it believes it has over Greece. She is alarmed by the prospect of Greece further strengthening its naval fleet with the remaining French frigates it has ordered and the addition of Italian frigates, through the acquisition of F-35 fighter jets and through the development of Israeli defense systems. Add to that a dose of paranoia about Israel’s stance toward Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and worry about what the future holds takes on existential dimensions. Western diplomats have spoken in recent weeks of outright paranoia in Ankara’s power centers, which see plots lurking everywhere, from attacks on the Turkish lira to new coup attempts.
Some cynics and realists believe that the Turkish government has become obsessed with acquiring F-35s, which it sees as essential to maintaining a balance of power vis-à-vis Greece and Israel. Erdogan believes that the Greek-American lobby, in cahoots with his pro-Israeli counterpart, blocked the agreement he thought had been reached with US President Donald Trump, negotiated through the still active and influential “player” who represents him in Ankara. It is therefore likely that he will seek to leverage a controlled escalation with Greece to push for an informal agreement that would allow him to move forward with the F-35 deal.
Faced with such a fluid, unstable and somewhat paranoid situation, there is good reason to be concerned. It is also worth noting that an effort is underway – albeit very tactfully worded – to portray Greece as a paranoid nation, obsessed with a non-existent Turkish threat. Or, as a seasoned Turkish analyst would say: “Why do you care so much about having pockets of Greek islands inside Turkish maritime zones? »
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Sources 2/ https://www.ekathimerini.com/opinion/1305262/aegean-tension-and-ankaras-obsessions/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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