Washington scientists are studying “silent earthquakes” to track potential large earthquakes

Collectively, earthquakes small enough to move to slightly alter the surface of the Earth near them.

WASHINGTON – A swarm of thousands of small earthquakes began deep in western Washington, Oregon and British Columbia again.

You won’t feel these earthquakes especially because they occur at depths of 40 to 60 miles, as the bottom plate of the Juan de Fuca oceanic plate is believed to become stretched and elastic as it warms and melts back into the mantle of the Earth.

These have been called “silent earthquakes,” which have a deep tremor and slow slip. Collectively, they move enough to slightly change the surface of the Earth near them. Small earthquake foci erupt when the plate slides down and will last for weeks until the event ends.

These silent earthquakes release the energy equivalent to a magnitude 6 earthquake, which is in the range of the Niskwally earthquake that occurred nearly 20 years ago on the last day in February. The Niskwale earthquake had a magnitude of 6.8.

Scientists didn’t even know that these slowly developing earthquakes have been around for 20 years.

University of Washington seismologist and professor emeritus Steve Malone said: “Perhaps in 2002 and 2003 – we are beginning to realize that these earthquakes are occurring deep in western Washington.”

Malone continues to track these events and look at what he can tell us about the giant earthquakes that Washington is expected to witness again.

These types of silent earthquakes are now found around the Earth, as the crustal plates that make up the ocean floor are pushed under the continental crust. This is true about the Pacific Rim, where earthquakes were discovered a few years ago in Japan.

The violence of these events, which can range in the range of 9 degrees, including the Great Tohoku earthquake in March 2011 in northeastern Japan, causing a tsunami, the failure of a nuclear power plant, and the loss of more than 15,000 people.

The scientific term for this cortical impingement is called immersion. However, if the lower end of the plate moves quietly and unnoticed, the descending ocean plate is not as elastic as it approaches the surface. Normally, it seals, and is only released when enough energy has accumulated that friction with the continental plate cannot hold it back.

How often this lock is broken in a giant earthquake depends on where you are. The last time this happened under Washington and most of the West Coast was in January 1700, in the so-called Cascadia Subduction Zone. The subduction zone extends from Cape Mendocino in northern California, past Oregon, Washington, and off Vancouver Island, British Columbia.

“I really think this gives us a window into a part of the Earth that we cannot access,” said Harold Tobin, a Washington state seismologist who also leads the Pacific Northwest seismic network at the University of Washington. “It gives us things from all the events, little pops.”

While most earthquakes are fairly random in time, the tremor is running on a schedule, occurring roughly every 14 months.

But could silent earthquakes or deep tremors indicate an approaching major earthquake, or at least create a window when the probability is greatest?

One theory is that it could add to the drag force on the plate locked above it, one day triggering a massive earthquake. But Tobin said there was no real link worldwide between a deep earthquake followed by a strong earthquake in the subduction zone.

After all, it’s only 20 years since earthquakes have been studied, and it’s a sign of the geological timescale.

It could become a predictive tool for telling us when to expect a devastating earthquake in the same geological structure, said Tobin, who is an expert on slip plates who also spent a lot of time studying them in Japan.

He said, “I’m optimistic that this is where the science is headed.”

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