Volcano watching: when will Mauna Loa erupt next?

“When will Mauna Loa erupt next?” This was the title of a Volcano Awareness Month video presentation released by the US Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory in January 2021. This was also the topic of discussion among HVO scientists last week after discovering slight changes in ground deformation and earthquakes at the Mauna Loa summit.

Mauna Loa is not currently erupting. But there have been signs of turbulence rising above known background activity since July 2019, when HVO raised its volcano alert level to ADVISORY and its flight color code to yellow.

Mauna Loa is the largest active volcano on Earth, covering just over half of the island of Hawaii. It gradually rises to 4,170 meters (13,681 ft) above sea level, and its long submarine sides descend 5 km (3 mi) below sea level to the ocean floor.

Mauna Loa, like Kilauea, has a caldera summit and two active rift zones extending from its summit. The eruptions vary from short to long-lived, and occur at the summit, either in the southwest or northeast rift regions, or radial vents on the north and west flanks of the volcano.

History has shown that Mauna Loa eruptions can start with very little warning, and produce large lava flows that travel long distances in short periods of time, affecting communities on the sides of the volcano.

The last eruption of Mauna Loa volcano began at its summit on March 25, 1984. A series of fissures subsequently opened up along the northeast rift zone, feeding pyroclastic flows that reached 17 km (11 mi) from Hilo Bay in 5 days. The eruption ended on April 15th.

The fastest large volcanic eruption from Mauna Loa in recorded history began on June 1, 1950, when fissures opened from the top of the southwest rift, resulting in a pyroclastic flow that traveled 24 km (15 mi) and reached the ocean in less than 3 hours! Over the next 23 days, lava flows descended on either side of the rift zone, inundating the coastal village of Ho’okena-mauka and covering the Mamalahoa Highway (Hwy.11) in three places.

HVO seismographs recorded nearly 271 small earthquakes (most of them below 2 degrees), shallow (less than 6 km or 4 miles deep) last week at Mauna Loa, 226 of which were below the summit and upper sides. This is a relative increase in activity, but within the range of fluctuations observed over the past several years.

The modern HVO seismic network is able to detect much smaller earthquakes. But even with this greater sensitivity, the numbers of recent earthquakes are still lower than observed before previous eruptions and have occurred in bursts with periods of calm in between. We expect shallow seismic activity to be more sustainable – stable and continuous – before the explosion.

A review of data from 1984 can help put the last observations into perspective. The immediate precursor to the 1984 eruption was the sudden increase in the number of small earthquakes and volcanic earthquakes. Hundreds to over a thousand earthquakes were recorded by the HVO Earthquake Network every day. In the hours leading up to the eruption of the volcano in 1984, seismic activity increased to such an extent that astronomical telescopes at Monaki, 42 km (26 mi) away, could not be stabilized due to the constant earth vibration.

HVO also uses remote monitoring capabilities that were not available in 1984. GPS telemetry and inclinometer stations record continuous measurements of ground deformation showing slow and long-term enlargement at the summit, consistent with the supply of magma to the shallow storage system of the volcano. The slight increase in inflation continues at the peak that began in January 2021.

Current surveillance tools also include high-resolution webcams, ultrasound arrays, potentiometers, gas emissions sensors, space-borne radar access and thermal imaging measurements.

So when will Mauna Loa erupt next? The date and time cannot be ‘predicted’ accurately. Geophysical measurements indicate that the Mauna Loa magma storage system has been recharged since the 1984 eruption, and there have been signs of increased unrest since 2019, but the next Mauna Loa eruption does not appear imminent. However, the recent slight increase in seismic activity and ground deformation is a reminder that Mauna Loa is a “sleeping giant”.

Please watch HVO Geologist Frank Trusdell’s virtual presentation (https://on.doi.gov/3pYSZj6) for additional information on the past, present and potential future of Mauna Loa.

Volcano activity updates

Kilauea volcano erupting. USGS Volcano Alert Level at WATCH (https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/volcano-hazards/about-alert-levels). Kilauea updates are released daily.

Lava activity is limited to Halema’uma’u with lava erupting from a vent on the northwest side of the crater. Field measurements as of February 24 indicate that the lava in the western (active) part of the lake is 218 meters (715 ft) deep, with the eastern part of the lava lake hardening at the surface. The peak gauges are showing a downward trend after the last DI event ended in the middle of the day on February 24th. The sulfur dioxide emission rates measured on 23 February were 800 tons / day. Earthquakes remained stable, with one strong tremor and one minor earthquake. For the most recent information on the eruption, see https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/Kilauea/current-eruption.

Mauna Loa does not erupt and remains at Volcano Alert Level. This alert level does not imply that an outbreak is imminent or that progression to an outbreak from the current level of disturbance is certain. Mauna Loa updates are released weekly.

Last week, about 226 small earthquakes were recorded on the Richter scale below the upper elevations of Mauna Loa; Most of these occurred at depths of less than 6 kilometers (about 4 miles). GPS measurements show continued slow summit swelling, consistent with the supply of magma to the volcano’s shallow storage system. The slight increase in the inflation rate continues at the peak that began in January. Gas concentrations and fumarol temperatures at the summit and in the sulfur cone in the southwest rift region remain stable. Web cameras do not show any changes to the landscape. For more information on the current monitoring of Mauna Loa volcano, see: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna-loa/monitoring.

There were 3 events with 3 or more hair reports in the Hawaiian Islands during the past week: An M2.5 earthquake 30 km (18 mi) northeast of Honuka at a depth of 35 km (22 mi) on Feb 23 at 9:45 pm HST, M3.8 earthquake 78 km (48 mi) west of Kalloa at a depth of 6 km (3 mi) on February 23 at 4:41 am HST, and M3.0 earthquake 4 km (2 mi) northwest of Pahala at a depth of 33 km (21 mi) on February 20 at 5:33 pm GMT.

HVO continues to closely monitor both the ongoing Kilauea and Mauna Loa eruptions for any signs of increased activity.

Please visit the HVO website for previous Volcano Watch articles, Kilauea and Mauna Loa updates, volcano photos, maps, recent earthquake information, and more. Questions emailed to [email protected].

Volcano Watch is a weekly article and activity update written by the scientists and affiliates of the US Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.

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