Modeling indicates a monster earthquake for New Zealand

A new study suggests that New Zealand’s massive rift in the Alps is caused by a monster earthquake within the next 50 years.

Models Victoria University of Wellington suggest there is a 75 percent chance of an earthquake in the South Island fault line in the next 50 years – most likely with a magnitude of 8 or higher.

The Alpine Fault runs along the South Island at the junction of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates, resulting in the great Southern Alps.

Jimmy Howarth, senior lecturer at Volkswagen University, has studied the past 20 earthquakes with alpine faults by looking for sediments in lakes and swamps, and says the chance of a major earthquake is much higher than previously thought.

“From the record of past earthquakes, we can determine that the probability of an event of magnitude 7 or higher occurring is about 75 percent in the next 50 years,” he said.

“So we now know that in our lifetime the chances of seeing a major earthquake in the Alps are better than throwing a coin.

“Therefore, we expect that the next earthquake will be similar to the last earthquake in 1717, with a magnitude of 8.1 on the Richter scale, which caused about 380 km of rupture of the fault,” he added.

Modeling shows that the probability of the next earthquake having a magnitude of 8 or higher is 82 percent.

The Alpine earthquake has preoccupied many in New Zealand, leading to a major collaborative planning group known as the “AF8 Project”, which aims to prepare kiwis in the aftermath of the next brutal earthquake.

“We can say that the next earthquake will probably happen for most of our lives,” said Dr. Howarth.

“We need to go beyond planning for immediate response to the next event, which was well done through the AF8 program, to thinking about how we can make decisions about future investment to improve our infrastructure and community preparedness.”

The study was funded by the New Zealand Earthquake Commission and the Rutherford Foundation and published in Nature Geoscience.

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