The Cascadia earthquake of 1700 is perhaps the first in a row

A presentation at the 2021 Annual Meeting of the American Seismic Association (SSA) cast doubt on the traditional scientific narrative about one of the most iconic earthquakes in modern history. The event in question was the Cascadia Earthquake of January 26, 1700, a seismic disaster of 8.7-9.2 magnitude that wreaked havoc along the western coast of North America and caused a massive tsunami that traveled across the Pacific Ocean before hitting the shores of Japan. The massive and prolonged shaking of the Cascadia earthquake, as well as associated flooding due to ocean water flow over sunken land, physically altered coastal and semi-coastal areas of what is now the Pacific Northwest in the United States and Canada.

The traditional explanation for this catastrophe is attributed to one massive, massive earthquake, which was precipitated by the slipping of the entire tectonic plate boundary in the region. But there is another possibility, according to an analysis provided by University of Oregon seismologist Diego Melgar at a recent SSA meeting.

The Pacific Coast Tsunami Warning Sign warns the public of potential danger after the earthquake, and many Native American tribes are preparing for the “next” Cascadia earthquake. (MichaelVi / Adobe Stock)

New look of the Cascadia earthquake not good

Using advanced software that creates 3D models of tectonic engineering, Melgar performed thousands of simulations of potential earthquake ruptures in the Cascadia region, to map their severity levels, damage ranges and other properties.

By following this methodology, he concluded that the damage caused by the famous Cascadia earthquake could indeed be caused by a series of earthquakes, which may have occurred over a period of several years or even a decade.

A slide of only 40 percent along the tectonic boundary was sufficient to accelerate the initial large earthquake and tsunami of Japan, while four subsequent earthquakes in the range of 8.0 or below caused the rest of the damage observed through re-examination of geology. Record.

Melgar’s simulation does not negate the only earthquake hypothesis. But it does prove the usefulness of alternative theories.

“If the event of January 26, 1700, as part of a long-lived chain of earthquakes that could potentially span many decades, it should be viewed as a hypothesis of equal probability at least,” Melgar said.

As Melgar pointed out, his results are far from illogical. Current earthquake risk maps are based on the assumption that the Cascadia Fault Zone will be completely ruptured every 500 years or so, which is the average time elapsed between major earthquakes in this region.

If this new theory is incorrect, the probability of a complete rupture may be less than previously assumed. But partial ruptures followed by subsequent platelet movements that cause additional catastrophic damage are more likely to occur, changing the way risk should be assessed.

“Whether there is a partial or complete rupture, it is basically everything we place on the risk maps,” Melgar admitted. “So we really need to work on that.”

Many Native American communities in the Pacific Northwest have stories of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake that they feel will happen again. (Daniel Avram / Adobe Stock)

The Cascadia Earthquake in Native American Traditions

At this time of this land and life-changing event, the West Coast of North America was occupied by a diverse mix of sedentary Native American peoples. Their lives have been profoundly disrupted by the powerful earthquake and torrential floods they caused, which have changed the land on which they irreversibly depend for their security and livelihood.

These groups relied on oral narration to convey their historical experiences to their descendants.

For example, the Uruk people of Northern California told the story of an object they called Earthquake, which on that terrible night was swinging up and down the coast, its heavy feet hitting the ground, causing the land to sink and pouring ocean water into it over everything. Villagers fled to the top of a nearby hill and put up a festive dance to keep the earthquake at bay. But their efforts failed, and as soon as they saw water covering their entire village, they realized that their world would not be the same.

From the perspective of the Quileute and Hoh people, who lived in what is now Washington state, the cause of the devastation was something entirely different. In their oral traditions, they describe how Thunderbird and Whale engaged in an epic battle on that fateful evening, uprooting trees and causing mountains to shake and collapse. As the conflict began, the ocean rose and spread across the entire land.

In the version of the story transmitted among the Huu-ay-aht people, who lived on Vancouver Island, the shaking of the earth followed at the speed of a flooding flood, and it all happened so quickly that most people did not. They have time to escape from their homes and reach their boats. Their tragic story concludes, “Everything drifted away, everything is lost and gone.”

These are just a few examples of how different groups of Native Americans have experienced and interpreted the catastrophic events of January 26, 1700. The most striking thing is that all of the indigenous peoples who lived in the region had their own version of the main story, and those stories remained verbally alive from generation to generation. generation.

These stories are designed to be informative and memorable. They have brought history to life, by presenting it in a fictional or partly mythical form, full of action and drama. Native American storytellers believe that a wonderful well-told story can serve as a warning to future grandchildren, alerting them to the dangers of feeling complacent or unprepared in the face of a fierce and unpredictable nature.

The Cascadia Earthquake and its Relationship to the Juan de Fucia Plate and the North American Plate. (USGS / Public Domain)

Ready or not: The Cascadia 1700 event will be repeated!

While most residents of cities like Seattle and Vancouver seem to prefer blissful ignorance, some Native Americans are already taking measures to protect themselves from future earthquakes and tsunamis.

For example, the Huu-ay-aht people have already moved their administrative headquarters to the highest point on their Vancouver Island territory. They have developed evacuation plans that will move all residents to this building as quickly as possible, in the event of an earthquake, or issuance of a tsunami warning.

Meanwhile, the Showalwater Bay Indian tribe, located on Washington’s west coast midway between Seattle and Portland, is currently working to move its entire community to a higher location. They would build a powerful vertical evacuation tower near Willapa harbor, which could protect them from massive tsunami waves.

Residents of Quileute also move into coastal Washington. They received a land grant from the US government in 2012, to facilitate the movement of their communities in and out of the tsunami risk zone.

Whether most people are prepared or not, another massive earthquake, or a series of massive earthquakes, is sure to reach the Pacific Northwest sometime in the future. An average 500-year gap between these earthquakes would put the ETA region to the next earthquake in 2200, but the most recent massive earthquake before an event 1,700 occurred in 1310, which was only 390 years ago.

A similar gap next time will make the sequence of earthquakes or super earthquakes that will arrive before the end of this century, which from a historical perspective is just a whirlwind at the present time.

Top image: “Next” Cascadia earthquake could engulf coastal cities in the Pacific Northwest. Source: Christophe Fouquin / Adobe Stock

Written by Nathan Valde

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