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Pakistan Stock Exchange shows lackluster movement – OpEd – Eurasia Review
The market witnessed volatility during the week ended May 24, 2024 due to lack of progress in negotiations between the Government of Pakistan (GoP) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the level agreement. staff. Despite the discussions, both sides have denied officially calling the discussions negotiations, contributing to uncertainty and market fluctuations.
However, on Friday, reports of progress under a new EFF program were released, boosting market confidence and helping the KSE-100 index reach its highest close on record. This positive development offset earlier market volatility, signaling investor optimism about the economic outlook and financial stability. Overall, the benchmark index closed Friday at 75,983 points, a gain of 640 points or 0.85%WoW.
Additionally, weekly SPI inflation remains consistently on a downward trend according to recent readings, suggesting a slowdown in CPI data for the current month.
Mid-week GDP auction returns also declined slightly.
Positivity soared with the announcement of the UAE's upcoming commitment of a $10 billion investment.
Negotiations over the Reko Diq deal between Pakistani and Saudi investors have gained momentum, boosting optimism.
Additional revenue measures are proposed by the authorities by adding 18% sales tax on various zero-rated and exempt products in the upcoming budget.
Overall, average trading volumes increased 0.7% to 558.18 million shares, compared to 554.51 million shares traded the previous week.
On the currency front, PkR remained stable to close at 278.21.
Other major news feeds of the week include: 1) IMF not happy with Pakistan's moves to make real estate tax-free, 2) United Nations projects economy of Pakistan will grow by 2% in 2024, 3) Pakistan's current account records a surplus of $491 million in April. and 4) Nepra questions the proposed 25% PPP increase.
Power generation and distribution, leather and tanneries, tobacco, commercial banking and technology and communications were among the best performing sectors, while sugar and allied industries, automobile parts and accessories, transport, Modarbas and refinery were among the worst performers.
A significant net sale was recorded by foreigners with a net sale of US$12.08 million. Banks/DFIs absorbed the majority of the sales with a net purchase of $10.44 million.
The best performing scripts of the week were: SCBPL, KEL, NPL, SRVI and SHFA, while the laggards included: THALL, NRL, DAWH, PSEL and SEARL.
The market is expected to remain focused on news related to the FY25 budget in the near term. Overall, we can expect some profit taking as the index sits at its all-time high.
With foreign buyers buying steadily, the recovery is expected to continue amid attractive market valuations. Furthermore, the next Monetary Policy Committee, scheduled just after the budget, will also be in the spotlight.
Even if real interest rates are clearly positive, further fiscal measures could pose a risk to the inflation outlook and a possible start of monetary easing.
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